Jays sweep the M's away

Seems like good news.  The Jays have now won 8 of their last 10 games, thanks in part to playing some decent baseball, and in part to having 6 of those games against the Mariners and Indians (let's not forget that the Indians are not very good, despite their record).

Can we look a bit closer at this though?  3 games against the Mariners for any decent team should equal 3 wins, especially when the Mariners are playing like a bad version of the Mariners lately.  Either way, the Jays allowed 16 runs over those 3 games against a really anemic offense (though there was some Octavio Dotel vs. LHB garbage time in there somewhere), which frankly scares me a bit.  I hate to be this stick in the mud, but this "8 of 10" thing should be taken with a grain of salt, especially when it comes to heading in to Texas, who have an identical 8-2 record in their last 10 games.  The difference here is twofold: The Rangers have lost their last 2 games, both by 1 run, after losing an Ace vs. Ace battle last night against Jered Weaver, but they had also won 12 games in a row before that.  Fact of the matter: neither team has really faced a good team over that span of 10 games, so hey.

Anyway, as mentioned, the Jays are in Texas this weekend for a 3 game set.  Funny thing about this: most weekend games happen in the afternoon (more so Sunday games than Saturday), but all 3 games this weekend will begin at 8:00ET.  A Sunday night Jays game?!?! Could that mean...?  Bluejays...?  ESPN Sunday nighter?!?!  National exposure in the states?!  No, don't be stupid.  That right goes to CIN vs. ATL.  Still, this is a very weird occurence, since ESPN has a say on the schedule so as to achieve maximum viewership to their nationally televised games.  Now all Rangers and Jays fans will not be tuning in to the Sunday nighter, thanks to this game/having better things to do.  Nice pipe dream though. I saw a graph not to long ago that showed that the Jays have like 4 appearances in American Primetime over the last like 13 years or something like that.

What else?  Oh yeah, Casey Janssen.  You're usually good.

I'm actually pretty sure I saw Miguel Olivo's right eye have an "OM" in it, and the left had a "G!" when he saw where that pitch was going.

Eric Thames left yesterday's game with a sore ankle (apparently?), being replaced with gamesaver, Rajai Davis.  I assume Davis is going to get himself back in the lineup with his recent heroism.  People are a lot harder on Davis than I am.  Yeah, he's got the worst OBP in history, but he's faster than Superman and plays half decent defense.  I think that as long as he's used properly (not the leadoff spot!), then he's fine.  He has a .758 career OPS against LHP (.821 this season), and that doesn't even take in to account all 'dem steals (the way wOBA would), so there's no reason a logical manager (fingers crossed) wouldn't have him platooning against lefties literally every chance he has, and uses him as a 4th OF otherwise.  That kind of speed can be an incredibly valuable asset.

Cecil vs. Ogando tonight.  Bautista is scheduled to be back at 3rd base, which should relegate Edwin either to the bench or to DH.

Something to be said about Snider

I feel like this is overdue, but I've hardly written at all since Travis Snider moved back up to the majors last week, so I suppose I can give myself a pass.  And I realize that it's only been what, 10 days (?) since he's been back, so it's tough to just say "holy crap Snider is finally broken out and is the player we all thought he was going to be!" because that would be jumping the gun.

In reality, I'm sure Snider is going to be a stud offensively throughout his career, though I'm not a talent evaluator by any stretch; it's more about what people who are smarter than I am say about him, not to mention the fact that he's still just 23 years old.  But that's not really what I'm writing about either.

Snider has pretty much dummied competition at every level he's played at throughout his whole life, until finally being average-ish or worse throughout his (brief) major league career.  For a guy who has been that good his entire life, only to have struggles and be sent down to AAA in back-to-back seasons... well, it takes some character, as intangible as that may be.

If we can remember back to the Jose Bautista contract signing presser, Alex Anthopoulos started waxing about on how they want character guys on their teams; "We believe in Jose Bautista the person, more than anything else..."  The Jays want their team to be made up of good leaders, smart guys, team players, etc., going forward in to the next few years in which they plan to contend.

As far as I can tell, Snider's head didn't get all big and important, and he didn't piss and moan about being demoted.  Instead, I think it's pretty clear that he went to Vegas with the plan of working hard and fixing what was wrong, and doing whatever the team wanted and needed him to do in order to be returned to the bigs.  That includes being willing and able to play center field the other night for the first time in his career.

I don't know if Travis Snider is finally set to break out and be the elite hitter that we've been waiting to see, but he's kicked some serious ass in every which way since returning from the minors.

Snider earns a Zaun head for his 5RBI performance last night, mostly because I don't really care for Edwin Encarnacion (despite what I wrote about yesterday about not killing myself if the Jays bring him back next year).  He answered that by doing a little twitterpating with the masses (@lunchboxhero45, if you're not following him).

In other news, it looks like trading season is upon us.  A couple of minor trades over the last couple days, plus an increase in rumors should have us fairly entertained over the next 10 days (which is when the deadline is).  I'm expecting the Jays to keep pretty quiet over the deadline, unless they can swing a deal for a guy like Corey Patterson or Edwin or whatever, and maybe move one of their relievers to kind of clear the logjam in the bullpen, maybe with the plan of acquiring some equivalent to a compensation pick, but one who's already been drafted and may be closer to the big leagues.  Then again, AA works his magic when you least expect it.

Having said that, there's an interesting piece of news that popped up on MLBTR this morning about the Jays having checked in on Padre relievers Mike Adams and Heath Bell.

The Jays have also been linked to Cardinals CF Colby Rasmus over the last 2 weeks, as well as during various times over the last year and a half where Rasmus has voiced displeasure in being in STL.  With a bunch of outfielders in the system already, plus Travis Snider getting a shot in CF, plus Rasmus' struggles at the plate, and finally, the Cards' lofty asking price (they'd want Romero or Morrow+), I don't see this ever happening unless there were maybe a third team involved.

As for all the other teams in baseball, I'm pretty pumped to see what everyone does.  I doubt Boston keeps quiet, which should mean that the Yankees will be doing something as well.  Carlos Beltran is almost guaranteed to be moved from NYM, and there's always the odd swap that nobody was all that ready for.  Then there's always the waiver-wire stuff that turns in to something useful, such as Cody Ross for the Giants last year.

Then there's the contending Brewers and D'Backs who lost valuable pieces last night in Stephen Drew and Carlos Gomez disrespectively.

It's an afternoon game today, as Ricky Romero headlines "Cool Down Day" or something like that, in which the roof is closed due to the 39 degree heat.  The Jays go for the series sweep against the suddenly once-again-fucking-awful Mariners.  I think it's Doug Fister pitching for the M's, but who cares really?  As long as it's not Felix or Pineda, there's a pretty good shot that the Jays are winning this one.

Another Walk-off Flocka Flame

So the Jays are good at extra innings.  Maybe they should just play extras in every game, and then they'd be like 82-17 this year or whatever that equates to.  If you missed it, Rajai Davis kind of stole the show and 3 bases, scoring the winning run on John Mcdonald's walk-off sac-fly.  Yunel Escobar collected 3 hits, walked once, and scored a Zaunny.  Jose Bautista went 1-for-6 in his return, while DH-ing.  I think he's supposed to play in the field tonight.

Props to Brett Cecil for getting his shit together after allowing a bunch of baserunners/runs through the first couple innings.  Seattle scored 4 in the 2nd on 2 HR's, which is essentially the equivalent of any other team scoring 10.  Cecil settled things down and only allowed 2 hits from the 3rd-7th inning, before getting bailed out by his bullpen, who went 7 scoreless innings, allowing 5 hits.  Casey Janssen returned to action after spending time on the DL with arm issues, and he threw a scoreless top of the 14th.  Marc Rzepczynski threw 2.1 innings of nearly perfect ball, allowing just the 1 hit while striking out 2.  Jason Frasor uncharacteristically allowed 3 hits and a walk over 1.1ip, somehow not allowing any runs.

The latest Elias rankings are out, with a special thanks to MLBTR.  They looked a little buggy yesterday when they first came out, which is why I didn't mention it, but they appear to have been fixed and are good to go.  From a Bluejays perspective, one change is Jose Molina, who has flip-flopped from type B to unranked and back a couple times this year.  He is back to a Type-B as of yesterday, which is mainly a moot point in my opinion.  I don't think Molina leaves at the end of this season if he's offered arbitration, but who knows?

Aaron Hill is now a type-B, and should remain that way for the rest of the year, which is good news if for the Jays, as someone will now be more likely to sign him and get a compensation pick for the Jays in next years draft.  Alberto Callaspo and Brandon Inge are ahead of Hill at this point by the slimmest of margins, but Hill sucks now.

Edwin Encarnacion has actually made up some ground with his recent increase in playing time, and, while still an unranked free agent (with a club option, by the way), he has made a pretty decent jump in the ranks.  I honestly thought that there was a chance of 0 that he would make his way up to type-B status, but here we are.  With Brett Lawrie waiting in the wings, and Jose Bautista likely heading back to the outfield, there may not be a ton of AB's available for Edwin, though they could just as easily make room for him if he keeps rising in the ranks.

And here's a thought: Edwin has a 1yr/3.5MM club option on his contract for the upcoming offseason.  If he's having a rough year this season, and is almost at a type-B, maybe it's worth a shot to platoon him next year against lefties and be a bench player otherwise.  He has a career 112OPS against LHP, which isn't really anything all that special.  I'm not trying to say that I'd have any problem with non-tendering him/trading him at the end of the season, but if there is any room at all for him on the team next year, then it's not really the end of the world.

As for relief pitchers, Octavio Dotel is somehow the highest ranked Jay, near the top of Type-B status.  Jason Frasor, Shawn Camp, Jon Rauch, and Frank Francisco all remain type-B's safely, and will need some extreme scenario to arise to change that.  Dotel is actually getting pretty close to Type-A, which goes to show just how flawed this system really is.

Michael Pinata again

Remember the time when that asshole, Michael the Pinata schooled the Jays earlier this year?  Yeah.  Expect a 2-0 game tonight.  Good time to have Brett Cecil up and tossing tonight.  No word as of right now as to whether or not Jose Bautista is expected back in the lineup, but I have a good feeling about this one.

In other news, Jesse Litsch is finished his rehab stint and has been optioned back to AAA Las Vegas.

And finally, Robbie Alomar will have his #12 retired by the BJ's on July 31.

Update- Holy Shit! Snider in CF tonight?  Could this really work?  Patterson and Thames will surround him with Jose DH'ing, Davis on the bench, and Edwin at 3rd.  What a mess.

Update 2- Secular Shit! Casey Janssen activated, Luis Perez returned to AAA LV.

Back!

So yeah, I'm back.  My sister got married this weekend, and we had a whole lotta family visiting (some still here), and then a nasty hangover and head cold or allergies or whatever...

And frankly, I haven't watched a game since before the all-star break, having to plan a bunch of stuff and see people and drink.  I should be back to normal over the next couple days, and if not, shut up.  And there's no game tonight anyway, so...

I hear Jose Bautista hurt himself.  Probably the derby curse.  He should be back tomorrow.

Brett Lawrie has been hit by pitches 3 times in his last 2 games on his rehab stint.  Should be okay I think, based on his twitterings.

Jose Bautista was ranked as the #2 player in terms of trade value by Fangraphs, behind only Evan Longoria.  Cool.

baseball please come back

I'm ever so bored.

Well now...

Here I was thinking that there would be nothing to write about, on this, the day after the night that only had 1 game that I didn't bother to watch.  Well it turns out that there's plenty.

First off, I guess some guys played whatever the baseball version of shinny hockey is, with the National League winning the all-star game or something.  Don't ask me what happened, because I have no fucking clue.  And now we get another off-day, followed by some kind of halfsy schedule of games tomorrow; which at least features the Jays and Yankees.

And honestly, I figured that I'd basically have what's written above, except in a more pissy tone with more swearing, and that would be my entire post for the day.  That is until I found out about one cute little piece of news, and remembered about another.

We'll start with the one I remembered, since it happened first, and, more importantly, is about the Jays.  The once thought-to-be-unsignable draft selection, Tyler Beede, whom the Jays selected 21st overall in this year's draft, may be close to signing.  Beede has committed to pitch at Vanderbilt, and was supposed to report to summer school yesterday, but didn't.  It seemed as though Toronto would have to break the bank (as was their plan) to sign Beede, who was reportedly, before the draft, seeking a big-ass signing bonus in order to forgo his commitment to Vandy.  The deadline to sign is August 15th, and most picks won't sign until right around then.

The other piece of news regards the NY Mets, who have traded away Francisco Rodriguez, a.k.a. K-Rod, and $5MM cash (the remainder of his 2011 salary) to the Milwaukee Brewers, for 2 players to be named later.  The Mets really needed this to happen to avoid the $17.5MM option on K-Rod's contract from vesting, which would have happened if he had finished 21 more games, thanks to a clause in his contract.  The clause is still in place for the Brewers, but closer John Axford should be finishing out the lion's share of the games for Milwaukee (as opposed to NY, where Rodriguez was closing games).

Given the Brewers spot in the NL Central/wild card at the moment, that is certainly a worthwhile risk to take, since they expect to contend again next year, and having K-Rod on a bloated contract like that is certainly a better business move for a contending team, as opposed to the rebuilding Mets.  If Rodriguez's option doesn't vest (so basically, if John Axford doesn't get hurt really soon and for the rest of the season), the Brewers will be faced with a $3.5MM buyout, and Franky will become a Free Agent.  K-Rod projects as a Type-A free agent, but he made $11.5MM this season, and would probably get at least a slight raise in arbitration, which is a big big contract for a setup man, and therefore I'd be surprised if the Brewers offer him arbitration at the end of the year, making this a 3-month rental for a team who is right in the thick of things in the NL playoff race, and who need some bullpen help.  Having said that, K-Rod may still be looking for a multi-year deal as a 29-year old closer, who is still pretty decent, so it could happen.

A commenter on Fangraphs gives us this (I've fixed his math here, in square brackets... he had 12.8M):

To clarify some details on the contract:

To qualify for the option, K-Rod needs to finish (not close) 55 games this year, and be certified healthy at year’s end. He’s got 34 GF, so needs 21 more.

The Brewers owe [$17.8M] if the option does vest:

$4.97M for the remainder of this year (70 games)

$0.30M in bonuses

$17.5M in 2012

minus $5M from Mets

The Brewers owe $3.47M if the option doesn’t vest:

$4.97M for the remainder of this year (70 games)

$3.5M buyout

minus $5M from Mets

So basically, assuming this option doesn't vest, which it probably won't, the Brewers are paying $3.47MM and 2 minor leaguers for 3 months of service.  He's only been worth 0.7 fWAR to this point in the year (pace for about 1.3).  He'll be in a slightly weaker division in the NL Central (faces Phi, Atl less, Hou, CHC more), though there may not be enough games left for that to matter all that much.  My take on this deal is that this seems like a slight overpay on the part of the Brewers, but the marginal wins make it worthwhile, as long as they can guarantee themselves that the option doesn't vest.

I'd be surprised if Bob Melvin was entirely finished in terms of getting bullpen help, which sort of makes me worry about the future of this team, considering all of the minor leaguers he's going to have to give up, how mediocre this offense will be next year (and going forward) without Prince Fielder, and how hilarious they are defensively behind a pretty good rotation.  Even with Fielder's contract off the books, they have a lot of arbitration raises coming to guys like Marcum and Axford, plus raises to guys like Braun, Greinke, and Hart, and I don't really see them going out and getting a bat to replace Fielder without a big increase in payroll (which could happen with a playoff run this year).

The real question is about what the Mets plan to do with this extra money that they're saving(ish).  They are no longer at risk for being on the hook for that $17.5, and they may be looking at moving Carlos Beltran as well (The Giants are a rumored destination there, according to Brian Wilson), which would free up another ~$6MM (depending on how soon the trade happens).  A little Mets firesale to free up some room on that waterlogged payroll (plus a new co-owner) may be just enough to hang on to Jose Reyes, who is a free agent at the end of the season.

** I can update this: according to (I think) Keith Law, more money is moving to MIL than whatever was first thought.  NYM is responsible for the $3.5MM buyout if that happens, plus whatever is owed for the rest of this season.  Having said that... Kevin Goldstein of baseballprospectus.com reports that only $2.23MM is changing hands. Might be some drama.

Tyler Beede has signed, according to a couple of sources who have been retweeted by some of my favourite sources, but there's nothing official yet.