Prospects!

Marc Hulet of Fangraphs has just released his Toronto Blue Jays version of his 2014 Top-10 Prospects list.  No huge surprises, but let's have a glimpse.  He starts the list off with a quick jab to the organization and their trades from this past offseason:

This Top 10 (+5) list is the weakest collection of prospects that Toronto has had in the minors for quite a while now. Most of the talent is in A-ball or Rookie ball with a noticeable lack of depth at the upper levels, thanks to the 2012-13 trades that were supposed to turn the Jays into a winning club.

Numbers 1 and 2 are of little shock; Aaron Sanchez and Marcus Stroman.  Some familiar stuff here; Sanchez has #1 stuff, but his delivery is cause for concern, while Stroman looks amazing out there, dummies minor league batters, and could probably have been in the majors this past season, but he's short.  Sounds about right.

Mitch Nay popping up at #3 was probably the biggest shocker for me, though it seems as though, based on his rankings that he would clump Nay in to a tier with Roberto Osuna and Daniel Norris.  Though he doesn't come right out and say it, it sounds like Nay isn't going to be able to stick at 3B, which is probably a minor issue, given Brett Lawrie's existence, but that problem won't likely arise for a few years.

Speaking of Norris and Osuna, things are starting to get a bit depressing-- Osuna is going to miss this season after having a delayed Tommy John surgery, and Norris is a bit of a wild card, given that he's only had one good half of a season over his 2 years as a pro.

AJ Jimenez at #7 is the last person with any real upside that is close to the bigs, at 23 years old and a likely AAA appearance.  Alberto Tirado, DJ Davis, and Matt Smoral are all in the top-10, and are all coming off seasons of rookie-ball, so are pretty far away.  Tirado is a possible reliever, due to Stroman-like size issues, but he crushed the Appalachian League this year in a small sample.  Davis is kind of like an Anthony Gose guy, with a bunch of tools and nothing really to do with them to this point.  Smoral is 6'8'' and left-handed, and is going to get an awful lot of chances to succeed, given his stuff that just hasn't come together yet.

The list rounds out with Sean Nolin, who, Hulet notes, was pointlessly added to the 40-man roster and had an option year burned for the sake of 1.1 IP.  Hulet calls Nolin a future No. 4 innings-eater, which has value.

Hulet calls Jairo Labourt and Franklin Baretto the wild cards that should move up in to next year's list.

My Triumphant Return: A Giant "Stuff" Post

Dioner Navarro looks like he is a big boy, despite being listed as 5'9'', 205.

But he's our big boy now, isn't he?  It's been pointed out around the internet pretty well all day that Navarro, by virtue of being not JP Arencibia, is a pretty huge upgrade for the Jays.  He was pretty damn awesome this past year for the Cubs in a backup role, putting up 1.7 fWAR over a fairly small sample of 266 plate appearances.  It seems a bit aggressive to give him 2 years, given that he hasn't been average ever, save for a nice season in 2008 with Tampa, and even then, 470 plate appearances that year remains a career high.  I'm not sure if I'm ready to anoint him as the everyday-ish (non-Dickey day) starter, given his apparent inability to stay healthy for a whole season, but I'm sure this is going to be refreshing, even if he does fall completely on his face.  Speaking of which, the contract calls for $3MM this year, and $5MM next year, which is really quite close to what JPA would have been paid had he gone through arbitration twice with Toronto.  Even if he does fall on his face, this money is better spent with Navarro, someone who has shown signs of being good, rather than JPA.

We're about to see a whole lot more Josh Thole than what we're used to, which, again, isn't JP Arencibia whiffing through pitch after pitch.  Between Thole and Navarro, we're bound to see a pretty significant uptick in walks, and thus, on-base percentage from catcher, all the while losing out on some power.  Navarro will help a bit in that regard, but making fewer outs and swinging through fewer pitches is truly excellent.  After all, Thole has a 9% walk-rate to this point in his career-- you could do worse, especially out of the guy that's going to be handling the knuckleballer.

We're still waiting to see what exactly happens with JPA; either a trade or a non-tender is looming any minute now, and might even end up being edited in to this very post if it's not finished by the time the result comes through.  Still, I'm pretty sure I can see in to the future on this one.  AA gets asked some inane question about Arencibia and stays pretty non-committal about the decision, hitting mostly at the fact that JP's a great person and is more than welcome to stay within the organization on a minor league deal.  JPA then gets his turn with the media somehow and lambastes the organization/media/city about something or other as if it comes down to anything other than putting up results on the field.  I'm sure he's a nice guy, but this is a business.

Obviously it's going to suck if this whole situation goes all Aaron Hill on us again, and it's certainly a possibility, albeit a pretty remote one.  The book is out on JPA, as far as hitting is concerned.  but there was some prospect shine there at one point, and there's some pretty legit power going on there when he can actually hit the ball.  Someone's going to take a flyer on him, and it will likely be one of those poor teams that need to find ways to win where others just don't care.  If someone can ever get through to him to not hack at everything, and to, you know, swing at strikes and not at balls... there can certainly be something there.  I mean he hit 21 HR's this year, imagine what he could do if he weren't always striking out.

Finally, I'd love to be a fly on the wall in Dave Dombrowski's office today, when he decided to trade an elite starter for not that much.  I just have so many questions.  Most of them are just slack-jawed gawking and some kind of awkward hybrid of the words "what" and "why", but I'd also really like to know whether anybody else had a chance at matching that with, say, anybody from the Jays' bullpen and anybody else from within the system.  There has been a lot of talk going around about Jeff Samadzija lately, and how a prospect haul centered around Stroman/Sanchez just aren't worth two years of him.  Now, I'm okay with saying that the Jays may have overpaid for Dickey, but I'd definitely be cool with giving up the same package for Fister.  We're talking about a top-15-or-so pitcher in the game, still with two years of cost-reduced control left.  If that means dealing one of Sanchez/Stroman and, say, a bullpen arm for him, then I'm for it.  If it means beating the package Washington sent?  Christ, I'm depressed just thinking about how easy that would have been.

If anybody is talking to AA in the next few weeks, I'd like you to go ahead and ask him about Doug Fister, and let him know that I'm heartbroken.

Did You Guys Really Fall for That?

So everyone's believing all they read now, huh?  Are you guys for real?  I came home from work today, and, like I do most days, checked bluejaysaggr and MLBTR to see if anything was up, only to see post after post and link after link suggesting that the Jays are going to trade Bautista?!

Come on, guys.  Let's use our brains on this one, yeah?

Obviously it wasn't going to be straight up, but the rumored deal was Bautista for Dom Brown, because we're apparently in the business of conveniencing the Phillies.  Bautista is infinitely better than Brown, is coming off a year that he missed a pile of games with injuries (i.e. selling low), and still has three years of team control.  Brown is quite a bit cheaper, is worse than Bautista, and comes with only one more year of control.  This one would be sort of dependent on what the Phillies would be throwing in.

The Jays are in need of-- in no particular order-- a catcher, starter, and second baseman.  The Phillies "don't have" a catcher at the moment (Carlos Ruiz is a free agent) so we can omit that one.  They have a recently extended Chase Utley at 2B, which doesn't preclude them from trading him per se, but obviously they want Utley around or they wouldn't have extended him, right?  Probably.  I also doubt the Phillies go Utley-and-Brown for Bautista if the situation even arose, though the more I think about it, it might make a bit of sense if you throw in a bullpen piece here and a prospect or bench player there.  But that's not the point.

Starters in Philly include Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels, and then a few dudes that the Jays couldn't possibly have any interest in trading Jose Bautista for.  I doubt the Phillies are overly interested in moving Hamels or Lee, given their strategy the last few years.

So yeah-- it's a Bautista-for-Utley type of thing, or it's nothing.

Don't believe everything you read.

When a Half-Measure is Close Enough

Ryan Hanigan appears to be available, given that the Reds have signed Brayan Pena to a two-year deal, and have Devin Mesoraco kicking around as well.  Some juice on Hanigan.

• Ryan Hanigan is a career .262/.359/.343 hitter, with a walkrate of 12% and a strikeout rate of 10.1%.  He hits for very little power (.081 ISO career), but gets on base and makes contact at a pretty good rate.
• Ryan Hanigan is pretty good defensively, and has some nice insights on pitch framing.
• Ryan Hanigan is set to make $2.3MM through arbitration, which is actually less than JP Arencibia.
• Ryan Hanigan is not JP Arencibia.
• Ryan Hanigan is not a free agent-- a team interested in his services would need to come to an agreement with the Cincinatti Reds on a cost, which is probably easier than coming to an agreement with a player/agent on how much money it would take to bring him in.

That stuff all seems pretty good.  If you can't get Brian McCann, you could certainly do worse than Ryan Hanigan on a 1-year deal (i.e. JP Arencibia).

I guess the main issue here is that Hanigan is 33 years old, and is coming off a season where he hit .198/.306/.261 over 275 plate appearances.  The Reds will certainly be selling low on Hanigan, which makes taking a flyer on him an attractive option.  He still walked more than he struck out, he still put up some pretty good defensive numbers, and he had a babip that was about 65 points lower than his career mark without any significant change in his batted ball profile-- his IFFB% rose by 4%, which is certainly a bad sign, but his 2013 LD%, GB% and FB% are all within a percentage point of his career norms.

For a team in need of catching help, Hanigan and Thole could certainly split time for a relatively inexpensive price.  If there is any kind of payroll restrictions in Toronto this year, acquiring Hanigan for a prospect or bullpen arm will allow the Jays to allocate money elsewhere, such as 2B or the rotation.  Acquiring Hanigan, in and of itself, would probably be a sort of half-measure, but as part of the big picture, Hanigan is a cheap alternative that would plug a hole and allow AA to go focus on the bigger parts of the offseason.

On Gordon Beckham, and half-measures

I used to be a beat cop a long time ago, and I'd get called out on domestic disputes all the time, hundreds probably, over the years. But there was this one piece of shit that I remember, Gordie, looked like Bo Svensen, remember him?  Walking Tall?  You don't remember him? No?  Anyway, big boy-- 270-280.  But his wife... whatever-she-was lady... she was small.  Like a bird.  Brisk like little branches.  Anyway, my partner and I would get called out there every weekend, and one of us would pull her aside and say 'Come on, tonight's the night we press charges."  And this wasn't one of those 'deep down, he really loves me' setups, she was scared; she wasn't going to cross him, no way no how.  Nothing we could do but pass her off to the EMT's, put him in the car, drive him downtown, throw him in the drunk tank, he sleeps it off; next morning, out he goes, back home.

But one night, my partner's out sick; just me. Call comes in and it's the usual crap: broke her nose in the shower kind of thing.  So I cuff him, I put him in the car and away we go.  Only that night, we're driving in to town, and this sideways asshole is in my car in the backseat, humming "Danny Boy".  Hurmph.  Yeah, and it just rubbed me wrong.  So instead of left, I go right in to nowhere.  And I kneel him down, and I put my revolver in his mouth and I said "This is it.  This is how it ends."  And he's cryin', going to the bathroom all over himself, swearing to God he's gonna leave her alone, and he's screaming-- as much you can with a gun in your mouth.

I told him to be quiet, I had to think of what I was going to do here-- and of course he got quiet.  Goes still.  And real quiet.  Like a dog waiting for dinner scraps.  We just stood there for a while.  Me, acting like I'm thinking things over, and Prince Charming sitting there in the dirt with shit in his pants.

After a few minutes, I took the gun out of his mouth.  And I said "So help me, if you ever touch her again I will" such and such and such and such and blah blah blah blah blah.

[Just a warning?]

Of course.  Just trying to do the right thing.

Two weeks later, he killed her.  Of course.  Caved her head in with the base of a wearing blender.  We got there... there was so much blood, you could taste the metal.

Moral of the story is: I chose a half-measure, when I should have gone all the way.  I'll never make that mistake again.

No more half-measures, Walter.  

If you've not watched every second of Breaking Bad, you're seriously missing out, and should stop whatever you're doing right now in order to remedy that, but I'm sure you've already been told by dozens of people.  The above quote is from this scene, and this isn't a spoiler at all-- just one of the more epic lines of the entire series, delivered by arguably the best character of arguably the best show ever.

Gregor Chisolm and Scott Merkin of MLB.com are reporting that the Jays are interested in Gordon Beckham, for some reason.  Beckham isn't really an upgrade over what we've got already, whether it's Maicer Izturis or Ryan Goins or Munenori Kawasaki or Mark Derosa.

I mean, he's probably slightly better than any of those guys-- I'm not entirely convinced that Izturis is actually as bad as we saw last year, but that's probably a different post for a different day-- but "slightly better" isn't anything to be overly thrilled about.  Goins probably stinks equally offensively in the future, regardless of how good he is defensively, but as of right now, he is probably the best choice to start 2014 as the main 2B of those currently in the organization.

There are plenty of guys in the league who can put up value somewhere in the area of what Beckham can do, and like three of them are already Blue Jays.  Beckham will make about $3.5MM through arbitration-- Izturis, Goins, Kawasaki and DeRosa combined will make slightly more than that.  Take in to account that the Jays would probably have to give something up to acquire Beckham, and yeah, this doesn't make any sense.

If Beckham is an upgrade over whatever's kicking around the organization-- if!-- he certainly isn't a big one, and is therefore not a respectable allocation of assets.  Gordon Beckham would be a half-measure.  No more half-measures, Walter.

The Market at Second Base

I think we've beaten it to death here-- well maybe not here since I don't write anywhere nearly as much as I used to, but you get the idea-- that the Jays really need to find upgrades at catcher, 2B and in the rotation.

I'm sure we've all examined the catching market ad nauseum, pointing out McCann, Ruiz, Suzuki, and others as possible targets for the Jays behind the plate. There was probably a joke made at some point about Angels' catchers Hank Conger and Chris Iannetta, since the Jays seem to acquire every Angel catcher ever, but that's apparently real life now.  The pitching market has also been looked at, at least a bit, pointing towards free agents Masahiro Tanaka and Matt Garza as potential targets, as well as Brett Anderson from a trade standpoint.

We've had some quick looks at 2B, but we, or certainly I, feel most comfortable with internal options at 2B, so I think I've thought and discussed that one the least.  I don't think Ryan Goins starting the year at 2B is the end of the world, especially if it allows AA to go ahead and devote his energy to upgrading behind the plate and in the rotation.  Maicer Izturis or Munenori Kawasaki can hop in and cover if needed, so it's not a guaranteed flop if Goins regresses both offensively and defensively; I can see offensively, but he's pretty good in the field, which should be lots going forward in terms of value, given replacement level at 2B these days.

At least that's where I was.  Over the last few weeks, there have been a few more names pop up, to the point where the 2B market is pretty flush if teams want it to be.  There's obviously free agent Robinson Cano at the top of the pile, but let's be realistic about that one.  Omar Infante, Kelly Johnson, and Brian Roberts make up a pretty top-heavy list of 2B free agents, but all of those guys are probably upgrades over -2.1 WAR or whatever the Jays did at 2B this season.

 Howie Kendrick's name has popped up as a guy that the Angels were planning on shopping, though I feel as though they're looking for starting pitching in exchange.  Still, Kendrick isn't a bad option, depending on the cost (plus there could be a package deal for Conger or Iannetta).  He's way above average offensively for a 2B, and plays a pretty reasonable defensive 2B as well.  He's set to make just shy of $20MM over the next two seasons as he enters his age-31 season, so I doubt he'll be all that cheap in terms of trade chips.

Cuban free agent Alexander Guerrero just signed in LA with the Dodgers, which probably makes Mark Ellis available.  Ellis will either be a free agent, or will have his contract option ($5.75MM) exercised, but I don't think he's a starter in LA anymore, unless Juan Uribe gets sent packing and one of Ellis, Guerrero or Hanley Ramirez moves to 3B.  When you consider the fact that Uribe put up a 5-win season in '13, he'll probably stick.  I figure the Dodgers will exercise Ellis' option (1 year, $5.75MM) and then move him for a relative pittance at some point in the offseason.

Ellis' contract and skill-set makes him a decent option for the Jays-- he rates as a league-average-or-so 2B, which is good for $5.75MM.  He's not going to cost a ton to acquire in terms of prospects or relievers or cash or whatever, and as a fairly cheap, 1-year deal, there is practically no risk involved.  Steamer projects Ellis for 2.2 WAR in '14, with a 91 wRC+ and above average defense.  At ~$6MM per WAR, that's a bargain.

The other new option that's shown up recently is Brandon Phillips.  Phillips is owed $50MM through 2017, and is entering his age-33 season.  That's probably a bad contract, or is at least market value with risk, so the Reds would have to eat some of the salary in order to get something nice in return, but they're probably motivated to do so, as it would allow them to try and re-sign Shin Soo Choo, find a cheap replacement at 2B, and/or maybe get another starting pitcher.

I think ultimately, Ellis is the safest option, given both price and term.  He won't cost impact prospects and will give comparable production to Kendrick for half the money, let alone the opportunity cost (i.e. what they trade to get him).  The 1-year deal that Ellis has allows AA to reconsider his options next offseason as well.  Kendrick might be a bit more likely, however, given that the Angels would like to move him, and that they have two guys behind the plate that might make reasonable trade assets, filling two holes with one deal.

Assorted Thoughts on Recent News

I dunno man, looks like a good hitter to me.

My jaw about hit the floor this afternoon when I read that Chad Mottola wasn't going to return to the Jays staff in 2014.  I thought he had done a pretty good job with what he was given-- some pretty big strides with Colby Rasmus being my main evidence, but Adam Lind seems to like working with him too, and his numbers, while a bit babippy, since going down to Vegas last season to work with Mottola, are above replacement level.  Not exactly something that he can tout since 2009.

If anyone was going to wear this season by way of losing their coaching job, I figured it would Pete Walker, given how terrible the performance of the rotation was this year, but both Walker and Pat Hentgen will return to the coaching staff.

Anthopoulos discussed the coaching change on PTS today, and kind of explained himself.  AA viewed Murphy and Mottola as a tandem, so with Dwayne Murphy stepping down, AA viewed it as a transitional period.  He told Mottola that he still has a job in the organization if he wants it, but given the partial change, AA felt that the full change was the way to go.

Elsewhere, Gregor had a mailbag posted either yesterday or today, in which he points out that "Washington's Wilson Ramos is known to be of interest to the Blue Jays," which is news to me, but I suppose it makes sense.  Ramos is a career .270/.325/.445 hitter over three seasons, though 116 games is the most he's had in a year.  He's certainly had some injury issues over his career, and you'd love to see him walk more, but you could certainly do worse from a 26 year old catcher.  The Nats would definitely be selling low on him, given his recent inability to play a full season, and the relative lack of decent available catchers at the moment.

The big issue for the Nats, as far as getting something done on that front, is that there's no really clear replacement from within their roster if they were to trade Ramos, which means that it behooves the Nationals to keep Ramos, not trade him.  Of course, if they decide to go ahead and sign a Brian McCann or even a Saltalamacchia/Pierzynski/Ruiz kind of guy, you never know.  I'm not sure the latter trio is an improvement over a healthy Ramos-- healthy being the operative word.

Ramos will be arbitration eligible for the first time this offseason, so he'll have three years of team control remaining, which certainly adds to his value.