Saturday, 29 June 2013

Maicer's Mirage, Or Why Chase Utley Needs to Happen

That doesn't look like Maicer Izturis, and it looks like it's autographed by a guy named Abe Stewart or something.

Maicer Izturis didn't exactly hit the ground running this year in his first games as a Blue Jay.  He and Emilio Bonifacio pretty much tried to test each other to see who could be less competent at second base over the spring, and that battle stretched in to the regular season, to the point where Brett Lawrie was being tested out at second instead of third during his rehab from his first injury.  Izturis' was below the Mendoza line in April, and wasn't much better in May (.232/.283/.339).

If, however, you've been watching Jays games on TV, you would have noticed that Buck Martinez hasn't shut the hell up about how well Maicer Izturis is playing lately, both offensively and defensively.  Obviously a 10-or-15-game streak isn't going to completely override a horrific start such as the one Izutris had unless he did something ridiculous like hit .600/.700/.950 or whatever.  He definitely hasn't done that, but he's been a little better of late.

At one point this year, Izturis was clocking in at a handy -1.1 WAR (I think you're just going to have to take my word on this one, since I don't know if I can retroactively look something like that up on Fangraphs or not and probably won't try since we've got a reasonable idea of how pointless that would be).  Since that mystery date about three weeks ago, Izturis has raised that figure up to -0.9 WAR.  Couldn't be happier.

I knew that replacement level at 2B was low, but I didn't think it was this low.  I mean, if Muni can be worth 0.8 fWAR over 60 games with an empty .336 OBP, then the world is crying for shortstops.  Shortstop is, naturally, harder to play than 2B, so that makes sense.  Anyway, Izturis, over his last arbitrarily selected 16 games, has hit .328/.344/.508 (babip of .360) to bring his season line up to .237/.271/.348, or a 67wRC+.

Fangraphs says that Izturis has been worth -7.4 fielding runs to the Jays, and his baserunning has cost them another run or so.  Call that -8.5 runs, which translates to right around -0.8 WAR, depending on just how outdated that runs/10 formula is (I've read that using 9 instead of 10 is probably a little more accurate given the success of the pythagenpat and Clay Davenport formulae).

Maicer Izturis' has been terrible this year, save for his last cherry-picked 16 games.  Maicer Izturis' bat has been replacement level.  Sweet Jesus.

Monday, 24 June 2013

On Win Streaks

So Annie Edison is a Jays fan, or a bandwagon jumper.


Jeff Sullivan at Fangraphs had a look at 11+ game winning streaks since 1970, and as Jeff is wont to do, he did a great job at writing something that was kind of funny and pretty informative and all that good stuff that makes the things that people read worth reading.

I had a similar idea that I had been sitting on, but then I forgot until I read that, but now that I've read that, I kind of want to expand on it in my own little way.

More or less, what I was going to do was really just look at teams that had done well over the last few years, and find their longest streaks of the year and go from there or something.  I don't think we would have learned a whole lot though-- we all know that streaks make up such a small portion of a season, and even a scattered loss sandwiched in between 10 wins is almost as good as 11 straight.  Winning 11 straight and then playing .500 ball for the rest of the month isn't really all that different than, say, winning 3 and then losing 1 over and over for a month.  The streak itself doesn't matter so much as just losing less in general over a large sample.

Jeff sorta points that out in his 2004 Tampa example there, I guess, but yeah.  The thing I'm really curious about is the mediocre teams from the last few years.  Good teams are going to go on big rushes of wins, and bad teams are less likely to do so.  Jeff's point is very valid, in that we shouldn't ignore the Jays' poor start just because there's a hot-streak going on here, but stashed within that point is that the Jays might very well be an average-or-so team who just happen to have won 11 straight.  I dunno.  I mean, everyone picked them to win the division before the year, which, granted, is super common to say of the team who has the most active offseason (Miami in 2012 anyone?), and they were projected to get 95 wins or whatever.

In 2012, there weren't a whole lot of teams that were mediocre; teams seemed to really only be good or terrible.  Probably had a lot to do with mediocre teams punting the post-deadline games, but who knows, really?

The White Sox won 85 games, including 9 in a row beginning May 23rd (or 13 of 15 starting May 17) and 9 of 12 starting .  They also lost 10 of their last 14 to finish the season and blow any chance of catching the Tigers.

The Phillies were 81-81, which is probably the definition of mediocre.  Perhaps I need to brush up on my English though.  Either way, they were pretty bad in the first half of the year, and traded away a few pieces, only to play well down the stretch and finish up at .500.  Their last 42 games included 26 wins (.619 win%), but they never won or lost more than 6 in a row at any point. The problem was that they had multiple stretches of losing 4 of 5, 5 of 6, or 7 of 10.

Milwaukee finished with 83 wins, with a huge streak coming down the stretch.  The low point of their year was a 1-9 stretch beginning July 21.  On July 27th, they traded their ace, Zack Greinke, to the Angels for prospects, one of whom being starting SS Jean Segura.  They finished the year playing 34-20 (.629), without ever winning more than 6 in a row.  That doesn't make any sense.

Pittsburgh embarrassed themselves over the last month or so of 2012, winning 7 of their last 23.  They had separate losing streaks of 4, 5, and 7 in September alone.  They also won 15 of 21 heading in to the all-star break.  They didn't make any big trades or anything-- Acquiring Wandy Rodriguez at the deadline was the biggest one-- so the fall from grace wasn't really expected or anything, they just started sucking or something.

Arizona is probably the wackiest case in this study.  Just look.  Win 3, lose 5, win 6, lose 6 of 7.  Crazy that they were never any farther than 4 games above or below .500 after May 16th.

So our sample of 5 cherry-picked teams kind of leads us to believe that, yeah, teams can streak a little.  As is often the case when I try to do something like this, I don't have access to a large enough database to make any worthwhile conclusions here, which largely defeats the purpose of doing this at all.  I know this already.  Going through individual seasons on baseball-reference is tedious.

I dunno, that's pretty much it.  I can't really prove it empirically or anything, and maybe I'm biased, but I think Jeff is downplaying the usefulness of an 11-gamer when evaluating teams and that's really just my opinion and not much else.  Nothing against Jeff; he's smarter than me.  He includes a table that illustrates that a significant percentage of teams that have had 11-game win streaks, from a historical standpoint, weren't <.500 teams.  I doubt many started the year as shittily as the Jays did this year, mind you, but he's the one with access to the data.

Sunday, 23 June 2013

Go Time: Going Streaking

This is fun.

I went golfing yesterday and then got drunk, so I didn't see the (compressed version of) game until this morning.  Bautista hitting that jack off O'Day was poetry.  Time to crank it up to 11.  One louder.

And it gets better!  Freddy Garcia pitches for the Orioles today!  I say that despite the fact that he's won consecutive starts against the Jays, but whatever, 14 hits over 11 innings shouldn't get the job done.

Those 14 hits over 11 innings probably do a lot to explain the outlying strand rate of 83%, and the 6.50 FIP Garcia is sporting for the season, albeit over a sample of just 50 innings.  And really, what would an Orioles' pitching staff be without some unsustainable success?

I mean, I get solid defense and everything-- Manny Machado has been worth 1.5 fWAR counting only his defense, and JJ Hardy, Alexi Casilla and Ryan Flaherty have all been pretty solid as well, so babips for pitchers are certainly going to be a bit lower than average.  Even still, I see some pretty glaring red flags here, in that this is a team with a 42-33 record and a rotation full of guys who have FIP's in the mid-4's, save for Wei-Yin Chen, who has suppressed homeruns at an astounding rate for a fly-ball pitcher in a bandboxey park.

I sound like a broken record, I'm sure, but the O's are going to break.

As for stuff, The Mariners have DFA'ed former Blue Jay Eric Thames.  Thames, of course, isn't Travis Snider, but was traded for Steve Delabar, in what has become one of the more hilarious schemes that AA has pulled off in his time.  Of course, at the time, the deal was perfectly fine for both sides, in that Thames had some upside if he could ever not hack at balls outside the zone, and that Delabar had a 30-year old robotically repaired arm.

BBB looks back at the 2008 Jays 10-game winning streak down the stretch.





Tuesday, 18 June 2013

Go Time: Colby Smolders

I'd like to point out that I don't watch How I Met Your Mother, mostly because I've seen a few episodes and didn't really consider any of the jokes to be all that funny.  I do know that the one girl who isn't Alyson Hannigan's name is Colby Smulders.  I also know that Colby Rasmus isn't beating the world, per se, but is quietly having himself a pretty nice season, and I was fairly surprised today when I happened to look up the WAR leaders for the Jays, and that's where the pun comes full circle.  He's not on fire, just smoldering.

I was actually looking to see what Adam Lind's plate totals ( .344/.411/.522) amounted to, but quickly stopped caring all that much when I saw that Colby Rasmus is sitting at a handsome 2.0 fWAR with a .249/.316/.472 slash line and above average defense.  ZiPS and Steamer both project him to regress a little bit, and if I understand what their projections are saying, I think they're expecting the average CF wOBA to rise a bit as well, but still, they expect a 3-3.5 WAR season out of Rasmus when it's all said and done.

That's pretty good for a country boy who was striking out every other AB early on this season.

DJF has Muni and Bautista stretching.

Fangraphs has Dickey knuckling.

Jays Journal has Morrow hurting again.

Jeff Francis is sure to serve up about 12 taters to our lefty-mashing friends tonight, as the Jays go for 7 in a row and try to inch their way back to .500.  Incumbent staff-ace Esmil Rogers hopes to avoid such a fate.

I owe a post on Maicer Izturis too; maybe tomorrow.





Monday, 17 June 2013

Heating Up and Debbie-ing Down

Baseball doesn't suck anymore.  Too bad I've been busy as dick and can't pay attention to most games in real time.  Either way, the Toronto Blue Jays are 4 games under .500, which, 3 months ago, would have been the most bullshit thing ever, but given the result of the first 40 games of the year, is actually quite a blessing.  I'm mostly confident that the preceding sentence made sense, but I can't really be bothered to double check that.

Texas is a pretty good team, regardless of how they've been scoring as of late.  Taking 4 straight from them is very good news for a team who needs every win they can get.  A month ago, this season was fucking over and done with, as hopeless as could be.  It's still an uphill battle, but this last couple of weeks have been pretty delightful, and Jose Reyes is coming back soon.

Cool Standings (and therefore ESPN) has the Jays making the playoffs 12.1% of the time from their current position.  That's a far fucking cry from the 0.3%-5.8% odds we were given 32 days ago.  May as well have the same look at this situation as we did a month ago.

Using that same 93-win plateau as our benchmark of determining what needs to be done to sniff playoff baseball, let's figure out what the Jays need to do from here on in.

The Blue Jays currently sit at 32-36 through 68 games, which leaves us with 94 more games in the season.  To get to 93 wins, the Jays need to win another 61 games.  That's a .648 winning percentage.  A month ago, the Jays needed to win 63% of their remaining games to get to 93 wins.  They're the hottest (or so) team in baseball, and they need to win games at a higher clip than what they've been doing.  Yeesh.  I checked the math on this three times, because even I didn't believe what I was writing.

For the record, Baseball Prospectus gives the Jays a 5% chance.  I feel like that's a lot more reasonable.  We'll know more soon though-- after the Rockies this week, it's Baltimore, Tampa, Boston and Detroit.  These next 15 games or however many it is are obviously the most important of the season.  Anybody can beat up on Houston or Minnesota.  It's takes the best to go out there and beat the best, or something like that.

Tuesday, 11 June 2013

Go Time: Wang, Pay Attention

Fog has adverse effects on knuckleballs, right?  Because that thing wasn't wobbling at all.  And speaking of fog, Demarlo Hale must have been fucking high to send Dickey back out there for the fifth inning.

I guess the idea was to try and save the bullpen for tonight, just in case Chien-Ming Wang goes out there and embarrasses himself.  Wang was a pretty good pitcher in another lifetime, putting up 6.0 and 5.0 WAR in 2006 and 2007, but since 2009, he's been worth -2 WAR over 133 innings or something, and has a couple dozen DL and minor league stints along the way.  Things seem to have gone reasonably for him in AAA so far, as he's pitched to a 2.33 ERA in the Yankees' system, but he's striking out fewer than 4 batters per 9 innings, so there's only so much success he can really be expected to have.

Elsewhere in Blue Jay land, Alex Anthopoulos was on the radio with Bob McCown before yesterday's game, and had a few tidbits of info.

MopupDuty noticed that JP Arencibia is one of the leading pitch-framers this season.  I have no idea what a reasonable sample is for this, so it's hard to say how much water I put in to it, but uhh... pretty good, I would say.

Henry Blanco has been released, and Evan Crawford has been outrighted to AA.  Andy Laroche has been DFA'ed to make room for Chien Ming Wang.  Brandon Morrow will need a few rehab starts, and will probably miss another 2-3 weeks.  Jose Reyes will likely begin his rehab stint within the next ten days or so.

Around the league, The Mariners promoted Mike Zunino, and Gerrit Cole will make his debut tonight for Pittsburgh.

If anyone is missing the reference of the title/photo, here you are.  Technically safe for work.

This lineup is ordered perfectly.



White Sox

Fucking Quintana

Friday, 7 June 2013

Thole Crap!

It's time.  It's finally time.  The catcher that we've had stashed in the minors is finally on his way up.  Not Travis d'Arnaud.  I can't make that clear enough.  NOT Travis.  He got traded.

No, folks.  It's Josh Thole.  The guy that caught RA Dickey pretty much all last year.  The guy who was necessary to the Dickey trade going through.  The guy who has been playing in Buffalo, for some reason, so that Henry Blanco could be around.

A new era has dawned.

Oh, and remember that thing I was saying about the upcoming roster crunch for the infield?  Yeah, about that.  The Jays have called up Andy LaRoche.  Because there needs to be another infielder.

The Jays are also set to sign Chien-Ming Wang, presumably for depth, but he might be the ace by the end of the year.  Wang opted out of his deal with the Yankees today, and will apparently be starting this coming Tuesday.

Finally, the Jays have loaded up on a few more highshool pitchers in the draft, with their first two picks of the day.

Thursday, 6 June 2013


I am definitely not a football fan, but I am a fan of two things very specific to tonight, and the above video:

  1. Pro sports drafts
  2. Hilarious youtube videos.
The above video showcases both of those, as it is a compilation of fans booing at their own incompetent front office.  Basically, Twins fans, but football.

The Toronto Blue Jays will pick in the 10th overall slot, and, unlike most years, will not have an extra 7 selections.  Happens.  I'll be around until then... maybe slightly afterwards.

Houston selects Mark Appel with the first overall selection.  They opted not to take him last year at #1, and he fell to 8th overall or something, ultimately not signing, and going back to school.  Houston chooses, interestingly enough, to go with the best-ish player in the draft in Appel, rather than mimic last year's strategy of going a little bit off the board and saving money for later picks.

Harold Reynolds just said that Appel could, and will, be in the bigs in July at some point.  What the fuck.

Cubs will probably take Jonathan Gray, who many thought the Astros would take with the first.

7:19 PM
Cubs take Kris Bryant, a large, powerful 3B.  The Rockies must be absolutely thrilled, assuming they're taking Gray now.  The Rockies suck at developing pitching, though that ballpark probably compounds that, so Gray to Colorado makes a lot of sense, barring signability concerns or the positive Adderall test from the other day.

Rockies get Gray.  It's been pointed out to me that Kris Bryant was taken by the Jays a few years ago in the 18th round and didn't sign.  Kohl Stewart will probably go to Minnesota, though Colin Moran is probably the best position player left.

Most mocks I've read have the Indians taking Colin Moran here, but I wouldn't be surprised if they grabbed a pitcher.  Braden Shipley and Trey Ball are the only pitchers that are ranked this highly, and any other pitcher would probably be a bit of a reach, so it's tough to say.

Indians took Clint Frazier.  I'm guessing that Colin Moran's got some signability concerns if he hasn't gone yet.  Moran was as high as third on some mocks, which is like a $5.2MM bonus slot, so Moran's value is taking a pretty huge hit the farther he drops down.

Rockies take Moran.  More importantly, Bud Selig just called this the "2000 1st year player draft."  He seems drunker and drunker every year.

Boston coming up.  Keith Law says Austin Meadows, an outfielder.

Boston instead took Trey Ball, a two-way lefty pitcher/outfielder.  Big, tall lefty.

Royals up.  Keith Law had them taking Ball.  Austin Meadows is probably the top position player available, Alex Gonzalez is Law's highest ranked pitcher left.  This Alex Gonzalez, unlike most, is not a shortstop.  Jays up in three picks, or 12-ish minutes.  Ryne Stanek and Chris Anderson are both tall RHP's that could go here if they want a pitcher.

Royals take Hunter Dozier.  Keith Law had Dozier going 29th overall, so that's our first real leap.  Most things I've read about Dozier suggest that he's not likely to stay at SS, which is fairly common.  The Royals have a couple of picks later on tonight, so they're probably taking this guy to save some cash and get some guys who drop later on.

I kind of feel like the Jays are going to get Reese McGuire, the highest rated catcher in the draft, or Austin Meadows, if the Royals take McGuire.  We'll find out soon, I guess.

Harold Reynolds doesn't understand the way the draft works now anything.

Meadows to KC.  If not McGuire here, probably JP Crawford, a high-school shortstop.

I'd like to point out that Bud Selig has stopped trying to remember what year it is.

Jays leap and take HS RHP Phil Bickford.  Had huge bonus demands, and a lot of guys thought he was going to fall.  More to come.

Bickford is 17.  Keith Law, three days ago, had Bickford going to Kansas City, but in his last mock today, had Bickford falling as one of the guys with signability concerns.

Law's scouting report:
Bickford is a high-upside, high-risk prep right-hander who has velocity and projectability but is a long way away from being a major league starting pitcher.
He will sit 90-93 mph and has touched 96 with riding life on it, a pitch that appears to explode in on hitters late. His lack of a breaking ball is a real concern -- his curveball is well below-average, lacking depth and easily visible out of his hand, while his slider is flat thanks to his low three-quarters arm slot. His arm action is very clean and he's got a great pitchers' body, leading one scout to suggest to me that Bickford might hit 100 mph at some point, easy to believe when you see how quick his arm is.
The lack of a breaking ball is a red flag for me, because it's harder to teach a curve or slider than it is to teach a changeup, but in the second round this kind of pure upside is going to be very attractive to teams that like high school arms.

Classic Blue Jays.

Another report here as well.  It sounds a lot like the reports that we got about Noah Syndergaard or Aaron Sanchez, in that they had big arms with not much for secondary stuff.

A contact of mine is going to look up some scouting reports on Bickford from a database that he has access to and presumably not hog that for himself.  Doubt I'll get links or anything, but I'll hopefully get a reasonably detailed look.  He believes that McGuire is going to go to the Mariners, now that the Jays passed.

Dominic Smith for the Mets, DJ Peterson to Seattle.  2 minute hug from his brother.

A couple of tweets, from Shi Davidi:

Hunter Renfroe to San Diego, Reese McGuire goes to Pittsburgh.  Pittsburgh gets a really nice haul here in the first round.

Bob Elliott just tweeted this, a video of Bickford.

Yeah, I'm pretty well done for the night.  I don't really know a whole lot more about anybody else, save for a few guys who are going to fall (Sean Manaea, for one).  The big thing was getting the first couple of picks and then whoever the Jays took.  With only the single Jays pick tonight, I care much less.  See you tomorrow!

Wednesday, 5 June 2013

On the Coming Roster Crunch

It's not like there isn't all kinds of time to sort this kind of thing out-- Jose Reyes is probably out until the end of the month or so, and Brett Lawrie will miss another week minimum-- but the Jays are going to have a decision in front of them as far as what to do with their infield situation when a couple of regulars return from the disabled list.

Reyes and Lawrie are going to play everyday while they're around, and I don't think anybody is arguing contrary.  What that means is that there will be four guys battling for one position (2b) and probably two bench spots, leaving someone as the odd man out.  First, the candidates:

Emilio Bonifacio is a fast switch-hitter, albeit one with extreme platoon splits, who can play practically all positions.  Rajai Davis is pretty firmly entrenched as the 4th outfielder, and if Anthony Gose is still hanging around, Bonifacio is more-or-less rendered useless as far as his outfield skills go (though Gose will probably be sent back to Buffalo when the NL games are over with in favor of another pitcher).  Boni hasn't been very good so far this year-- below replacement level fielding, below replacement-level offense, and 6 steals vs. 2 caught stealing leaves his positive contributions at pretty much nothing.  He's still a pretty reasonable asset though; John Gibbons loves to use his bench late in the ballgame, and Boni's ability to come in and pinch-run or shift to various defensive positions is something that will allow Gibbons to utilize his bench to the fullest potential in a close game.

Maicer Izturis signed a three-year deal this offseason, but it wasn't your typical three-year deal.  At $10MM guaranteed, it's a contract that the Jays will only need to obtain about 1.7 WAR from to break even on their investment.  Given that Izturis has been worth -1.1 WAR to this point in the year, reaching that mark doesn't really seem likely, but for a major league organization, the value of that contract is a relative pittance; $10MM over three years doesn't cripple a franchise by any means, nor does it even preclude them from making another move to try and remedy it.  Izturis is also a switch hitter, also with the ability to play multiple positions around the infield, and has shown himself to be a relatively good baserunner throughout his career.  Both ZiPS and Steamer project Izturis to return to something resembling his career norms over the rest of the season.  His career-low babip of .226 is probably hurting things so far and should be a reason to expect him to bounce back a bit, but his walk-rate and UZR are both at their lowest of his career as well.  So as to not entirely ignore the human aspect of things, he doesn't play everyday, which could be causing some kind of rust or lack of comfort or whatever.

Munenori Kawasaki, despite being a fan-favorite, isn't incredibly good at baseball.  He hits for no power whatsoever, but that's not really a big deal from a glove-first shortstop.  He's been worth 0.4 WAR to the Blue Jays to this point, thanks mostly to his ~replacement-level defense at shortstop and solid baserunning skills.  One thing he certainly does bring to the table is his ability to draw walks, which isn't really something that can be said about Izturis or Bonifacio.  He's also provided a positive contribution to the team, from a WAR standpoint, which you also can't say about Izturis or Bonifacio.  Despite starting the year in the minor leagues, Muni has probably provided more to this team than any of the four players involved in this roster crunch debate.  The only real issue is that once Reyes comes back, the need for an all-glove shortstop decreases pretty dramatically.

Mark DeRosa was signed mostly to be a 25th man, backup infielder, and provider of wisdom.  One of the all-around nice guys in the league, apparently, over the last few years.  Seems to just show up everyday with a smile on his face and boost the morale of everybody around him or something.  I dunno, tough to quantify. What I can quantify is that DeRosa has found his way in to 34 games, mostly off the bench, and has rocked a tidy little .257/.337/.500 slash line, beating the shit out of lefty pitching.  I don't think he was going to be the odd-man out regardless of performance, but he's crushed lefties in Rajai Davis' absence, and will probably continue to see time against lefty pitching, at least until Reyes and Lawrie return anyway.  At worst, he's still the guy that sits on the bench cheering people along, telling stories about the good ole days.  At best, he's the right-handed hitting part of a 2b platoon.

I wouldn't typically base much off a third of a season's performance, but it seems pretty clear that Munenori Kawasaki has earned his spot on this team.  Beyond that, Mark DeRosa has pulled more than enough weight on the field to justify his bench spot, especially if he's the token veteran on the bench.  The answer lies in making a roster move with either Izturis or Bonifacio, assuming everybody's healthy when Reyes and Lawrie are both back in the lineup, which is a huge assumption in and of itself.

Personally, I'd DFA Maicer Izturis if I had to make up my mind right now.  It's not like either guy is providing anything offensively at the moment (otherwise we wouldn't be having this talk), and Bonifacio's secondary skills (i.e. baserunning and the ability to passably play multiple positions) trump those of Izturis.  If someone wants to try and take Izturis' contract, either on a waiver claim or a trade, then by all means, go nuts.  I feel pretty confident that he'd slide right through the waiver wire untouched, and that he'd report to AAA if he were outrighted, seeing as he's got about $8.75MM left on his contract that he'd be walking away from if he rejected the assignment.  I'd be less surprised if Bonifacio were claimed, given his speed and his relatively cheap price tag.  He'd still be under team control too.

Maybe Maicer dicks around the minors for a while and figures out what has caused the drop in his numbers, and then forces his way back up when a roster spot opens up.  If Muni's performance waivers, or if someone in the infield gets hurt, he can still be brought back up.

It's certainly going to be interesting to see what AA does, if he needs to make a move in the near future.  Of course, there's still lots of time between now and that decision.  Given the news about the biogenesis stuff, there's a non-zero chance that the Jays are going to need to find another LF if Melky Cabrera gets tied up in all of this again.  The Jays could decide to try and move Colby Rasmus or Adam Lind before the deadline, or send DeRosa to a contender, making room.  Another injury could rear it's head, or one of Reyes and Lawrie could suffer a setback.  Hell, maybe Lawrie just gets optioned to Buffalo.

There may not need to be a roster move made involving any of these guys, since a lot can happen in a month, but let's just make sure that Maicer's contract doesn't blind us from what is a logical option.