Tuesday, 18 June 2013

Go Time: Colby Smolders


I'd like to point out that I don't watch How I Met Your Mother, mostly because I've seen a few episodes and didn't really consider any of the jokes to be all that funny.  I do know that the one girl who isn't Alyson Hannigan's name is Colby Smulders.  I also know that Colby Rasmus isn't beating the world, per se, but is quietly having himself a pretty nice season, and I was fairly surprised today when I happened to look up the WAR leaders for the Jays, and that's where the pun comes full circle.  He's not on fire, just smoldering.

I was actually looking to see what Adam Lind's plate totals ( .344/.411/.522) amounted to, but quickly stopped caring all that much when I saw that Colby Rasmus is sitting at a handsome 2.0 fWAR with a .249/.316/.472 slash line and above average defense.  ZiPS and Steamer both project him to regress a little bit, and if I understand what their projections are saying, I think they're expecting the average CF wOBA to rise a bit as well, but still, they expect a 3-3.5 WAR season out of Rasmus when it's all said and done.

That's pretty good for a country boy who was striking out every other AB early on this season.

Stuff
DJF has Muni and Bautista stretching.

Fangraphs has Dickey knuckling.

Jays Journal has Morrow hurting again.

Jeff Francis is sure to serve up about 12 taters to our lefty-mashing friends tonight, as the Jays go for 7 in a row and try to inch their way back to .500.  Incumbent staff-ace Esmil Rogers hopes to avoid such a fate.

I owe a post on Maicer Izturis too; maybe tomorrow.

Lineups
Jays
Melky
Bautista
Edwin
Lind
Derosa
Davis
JPA
Izturis
Bonifacio

Rogers

Rockies
Rutledge
Pacheco
Gonzalez
Cuddyer
Rosario
Helton
Arenado
Colvin
Herrera

Francis

Monday, 17 June 2013

Heating Up and Debbie-ing Down


Baseball doesn't suck anymore.  Too bad I've been busy as dick and can't pay attention to most games in real time.  Either way, the Toronto Blue Jays are 4 games under .500, which, 3 months ago, would have been the most bullshit thing ever, but given the result of the first 40 games of the year, is actually quite a blessing.  I'm mostly confident that the preceding sentence made sense, but I can't really be bothered to double check that.

Texas is a pretty good team, regardless of how they've been scoring as of late.  Taking 4 straight from them is very good news for a team who needs every win they can get.  A month ago, this season was fucking over and done with, as hopeless as could be.  It's still an uphill battle, but this last couple of weeks have been pretty delightful, and Jose Reyes is coming back soon.

Cool Standings (and therefore ESPN) has the Jays making the playoffs 12.1% of the time from their current position.  That's a far fucking cry from the 0.3%-5.8% odds we were given 32 days ago.  May as well have the same look at this situation as we did a month ago.

Using that same 93-win plateau as our benchmark of determining what needs to be done to sniff playoff baseball, let's figure out what the Jays need to do from here on in.

The Blue Jays currently sit at 32-36 through 68 games, which leaves us with 94 more games in the season.  To get to 93 wins, the Jays need to win another 61 games.  That's a .648 winning percentage.  A month ago, the Jays needed to win 63% of their remaining games to get to 93 wins.  They're the hottest (or so) team in baseball, and they need to win games at a higher clip than what they've been doing.  Yeesh.  I checked the math on this three times, because even I didn't believe what I was writing.

For the record, Baseball Prospectus gives the Jays a 5% chance.  I feel like that's a lot more reasonable.  We'll know more soon though-- after the Rockies this week, it's Baltimore, Tampa, Boston and Detroit.  These next 15 games or however many it is are obviously the most important of the season.  Anybody can beat up on Houston or Minnesota.  It's takes the best to go out there and beat the best, or something like that.

Tuesday, 11 June 2013

Go Time: Wang, Pay Attention


Fog has adverse effects on knuckleballs, right?  Because that thing wasn't wobbling at all.  And speaking of fog, Demarlo Hale must have been fucking high to send Dickey back out there for the fifth inning.

I guess the idea was to try and save the bullpen for tonight, just in case Chien-Ming Wang goes out there and embarrasses himself.  Wang was a pretty good pitcher in another lifetime, putting up 6.0 and 5.0 WAR in 2006 and 2007, but since 2009, he's been worth -2 WAR over 133 innings or something, and has a couple dozen DL and minor league stints along the way.  Things seem to have gone reasonably for him in AAA so far, as he's pitched to a 2.33 ERA in the Yankees' system, but he's striking out fewer than 4 batters per 9 innings, so there's only so much success he can really be expected to have.

Elsewhere in Blue Jay land, Alex Anthopoulos was on the radio with Bob McCown before yesterday's game, and had a few tidbits of info.

MopupDuty noticed that JP Arencibia is one of the leading pitch-framers this season.  I have no idea what a reasonable sample is for this, so it's hard to say how much water I put in to it, but uhh... pretty good, I would say.

Henry Blanco has been released, and Evan Crawford has been outrighted to AA.  Andy Laroche has been DFA'ed to make room for Chien Ming Wang.  Brandon Morrow will need a few rehab starts, and will probably miss another 2-3 weeks.  Jose Reyes will likely begin his rehab stint within the next ten days or so.

Around the league, The Mariners promoted Mike Zunino, and Gerrit Cole will make his debut tonight for Pittsburgh.

If anyone is missing the reference of the title/photo, here you are.  Technically safe for work.

This lineup is ordered perfectly.

Lineups
Jays
Cabrera
Bautista
Encarnacion
DeRosa
Davis
Lind
JPA
Izturis
Muni

Wang

White Sox
DeAza
Ramirez
Rios
Konerko
Dunn
Viciedo
Gillaspie
Beckham
Flowers

Fucking Quintana

Friday, 7 June 2013

Thole Crap!


It's time.  It's finally time.  The catcher that we've had stashed in the minors is finally on his way up.  Not Travis d'Arnaud.  I can't make that clear enough.  NOT Travis.  He got traded.

No, folks.  It's Josh Thole.  The guy that caught RA Dickey pretty much all last year.  The guy who was necessary to the Dickey trade going through.  The guy who has been playing in Buffalo, for some reason, so that Henry Blanco could be around.

A new era has dawned.

Oh, and remember that thing I was saying about the upcoming roster crunch for the infield?  Yeah, about that.  The Jays have called up Andy LaRoche.  Because there needs to be another infielder.

The Jays are also set to sign Chien-Ming Wang, presumably for depth, but he might be the ace by the end of the year.  Wang opted out of his deal with the Yankees today, and will apparently be starting this coming Tuesday.

Finally, the Jays have loaded up on a few more highshool pitchers in the draft, with their first two picks of the day.

Thursday, 6 June 2013

Draft!


I am definitely not a football fan, but I am a fan of two things very specific to tonight, and the above video:

  1. Pro sports drafts
  2. Hilarious youtube videos.
The above video showcases both of those, as it is a compilation of fans booing at their own incompetent front office.  Basically, Twins fans, but football.

The Toronto Blue Jays will pick in the 10th overall slot, and, unlike most years, will not have an extra 7 selections.  Happens.  I'll be around until then... maybe slightly afterwards.

Houston selects Mark Appel with the first overall selection.  They opted not to take him last year at #1, and he fell to 8th overall or something, ultimately not signing, and going back to school.  Houston chooses, interestingly enough, to go with the best-ish player in the draft in Appel, rather than mimic last year's strategy of going a little bit off the board and saving money for later picks.

Harold Reynolds just said that Appel could, and will, be in the bigs in July at some point.  What the fuck.

7:16PM
Cubs will probably take Jonathan Gray, who many thought the Astros would take with the first.

7:19 PM
Cubs take Kris Bryant, a large, powerful 3B.  The Rockies must be absolutely thrilled, assuming they're taking Gray now.  The Rockies suck at developing pitching, though that ballpark probably compounds that, so Gray to Colorado makes a lot of sense, barring signability concerns or the positive Adderall test from the other day.

7:25PM
Rockies get Gray.  It's been pointed out to me that Kris Bryant was taken by the Jays a few years ago in the 18th round and didn't sign.  Kohl Stewart will probably go to Minnesota, though Colin Moran is probably the best position player left.

7:31PM
Most mocks I've read have the Indians taking Colin Moran here, but I wouldn't be surprised if they grabbed a pitcher.  Braden Shipley and Trey Ball are the only pitchers that are ranked this highly, and any other pitcher would probably be a bit of a reach, so it's tough to say.

7:38PM
Indians took Clint Frazier.  I'm guessing that Colin Moran's got some signability concerns if he hasn't gone yet.  Moran was as high as third on some mocks, which is like a $5.2MM bonus slot, so Moran's value is taking a pretty huge hit the farther he drops down.

7:45PM
Rockies take Moran.  More importantly, Bud Selig just called this the "2000 1st year player draft."  He seems drunker and drunker every year.

7:50PM
Boston coming up.  Keith Law says Austin Meadows, an outfielder.

Boston instead took Trey Ball, a two-way lefty pitcher/outfielder.  Big, tall lefty.

7:55PM
Royals up.  Keith Law had them taking Ball.  Austin Meadows is probably the top position player available, Alex Gonzalez is Law's highest ranked pitcher left.  This Alex Gonzalez, unlike most, is not a shortstop.  Jays up in three picks, or 12-ish minutes.  Ryne Stanek and Chris Anderson are both tall RHP's that could go here if they want a pitcher.

8:00PM
Royals take Hunter Dozier.  Keith Law had Dozier going 29th overall, so that's our first real leap.  Most things I've read about Dozier suggest that he's not likely to stay at SS, which is fairly common.  The Royals have a couple of picks later on tonight, so they're probably taking this guy to save some cash and get some guys who drop later on.

I kind of feel like the Jays are going to get Reese McGuire, the highest rated catcher in the draft, or Austin Meadows, if the Royals take McGuire.  We'll find out soon, I guess.

Harold Reynolds doesn't understand the way the draft works now anything.

8:03PM
Meadows to KC.  If not McGuire here, probably JP Crawford, a high-school shortstop.

I'd like to point out that Bud Selig has stopped trying to remember what year it is.

8:06PM
Jays leap and take HS RHP Phil Bickford.  Had huge bonus demands, and a lot of guys thought he was going to fall.  More to come.

8:15PM
Bickford is 17.  Keith Law, three days ago, had Bickford going to Kansas City, but in his last mock today, had Bickford falling as one of the guys with signability concerns.

Law's scouting report:
Bickford is a high-upside, high-risk prep right-hander who has velocity and projectability but is a long way away from being a major league starting pitcher.
He will sit 90-93 mph and has touched 96 with riding life on it, a pitch that appears to explode in on hitters late. His lack of a breaking ball is a real concern -- his curveball is well below-average, lacking depth and easily visible out of his hand, while his slider is flat thanks to his low three-quarters arm slot. His arm action is very clean and he's got a great pitchers' body, leading one scout to suggest to me that Bickford might hit 100 mph at some point, easy to believe when you see how quick his arm is.
The lack of a breaking ball is a red flag for me, because it's harder to teach a curve or slider than it is to teach a changeup, but in the second round this kind of pure upside is going to be very attractive to teams that like high school arms.

Classic Blue Jays.

Another report here as well.  It sounds a lot like the reports that we got about Noah Syndergaard or Aaron Sanchez, in that they had big arms with not much for secondary stuff.

A contact of mine is going to look up some scouting reports on Bickford from a database that he has access to and presumably not hog that for himself.  Doubt I'll get links or anything, but I'll hopefully get a reasonably detailed look.  He believes that McGuire is going to go to the Mariners, now that the Jays passed.

8:20PM
Dominic Smith for the Mets, DJ Peterson to Seattle.  2 minute hug from his brother.

8:25PM
A couple of tweets, from Shi Davidi:
and

8:32PM
Hunter Renfroe to San Diego, Reese McGuire goes to Pittsburgh.  Pittsburgh gets a really nice haul here in the first round.

8:40PM
Bob Elliott just tweeted this, a video of Bickford.

8:55PM
Yeah, I'm pretty well done for the night.  I don't really know a whole lot more about anybody else, save for a few guys who are going to fall (Sean Manaea, for one).  The big thing was getting the first couple of picks and then whoever the Jays took.  With only the single Jays pick tonight, I care much less.  See you tomorrow!

Wednesday, 5 June 2013

On the Coming Roster Crunch


It's not like there isn't all kinds of time to sort this kind of thing out-- Jose Reyes is probably out until the end of the month or so, and Brett Lawrie will miss another week minimum-- but the Jays are going to have a decision in front of them as far as what to do with their infield situation when a couple of regulars return from the disabled list.

Reyes and Lawrie are going to play everyday while they're around, and I don't think anybody is arguing contrary.  What that means is that there will be four guys battling for one position (2b) and probably two bench spots, leaving someone as the odd man out.  First, the candidates:

Emilio Bonifacio is a fast switch-hitter, albeit one with extreme platoon splits, who can play practically all positions.  Rajai Davis is pretty firmly entrenched as the 4th outfielder, and if Anthony Gose is still hanging around, Bonifacio is more-or-less rendered useless as far as his outfield skills go (though Gose will probably be sent back to Buffalo when the NL games are over with in favor of another pitcher).  Boni hasn't been very good so far this year-- below replacement level fielding, below replacement-level offense, and 6 steals vs. 2 caught stealing leaves his positive contributions at pretty much nothing.  He's still a pretty reasonable asset though; John Gibbons loves to use his bench late in the ballgame, and Boni's ability to come in and pinch-run or shift to various defensive positions is something that will allow Gibbons to utilize his bench to the fullest potential in a close game.

Maicer Izturis signed a three-year deal this offseason, but it wasn't your typical three-year deal.  At $10MM guaranteed, it's a contract that the Jays will only need to obtain about 1.7 WAR from to break even on their investment.  Given that Izturis has been worth -1.1 WAR to this point in the year, reaching that mark doesn't really seem likely, but for a major league organization, the value of that contract is a relative pittance; $10MM over three years doesn't cripple a franchise by any means, nor does it even preclude them from making another move to try and remedy it.  Izturis is also a switch hitter, also with the ability to play multiple positions around the infield, and has shown himself to be a relatively good baserunner throughout his career.  Both ZiPS and Steamer project Izturis to return to something resembling his career norms over the rest of the season.  His career-low babip of .226 is probably hurting things so far and should be a reason to expect him to bounce back a bit, but his walk-rate and UZR are both at their lowest of his career as well.  So as to not entirely ignore the human aspect of things, he doesn't play everyday, which could be causing some kind of rust or lack of comfort or whatever.

Munenori Kawasaki, despite being a fan-favorite, isn't incredibly good at baseball.  He hits for no power whatsoever, but that's not really a big deal from a glove-first shortstop.  He's been worth 0.4 WAR to the Blue Jays to this point, thanks mostly to his ~replacement-level defense at shortstop and solid baserunning skills.  One thing he certainly does bring to the table is his ability to draw walks, which isn't really something that can be said about Izturis or Bonifacio.  He's also provided a positive contribution to the team, from a WAR standpoint, which you also can't say about Izturis or Bonifacio.  Despite starting the year in the minor leagues, Muni has probably provided more to this team than any of the four players involved in this roster crunch debate.  The only real issue is that once Reyes comes back, the need for an all-glove shortstop decreases pretty dramatically.

Mark DeRosa was signed mostly to be a 25th man, backup infielder, and provider of wisdom.  One of the all-around nice guys in the league, apparently, over the last few years.  Seems to just show up everyday with a smile on his face and boost the morale of everybody around him or something.  I dunno, tough to quantify. What I can quantify is that DeRosa has found his way in to 34 games, mostly off the bench, and has rocked a tidy little .257/.337/.500 slash line, beating the shit out of lefty pitching.  I don't think he was going to be the odd-man out regardless of performance, but he's crushed lefties in Rajai Davis' absence, and will probably continue to see time against lefty pitching, at least until Reyes and Lawrie return anyway.  At worst, he's still the guy that sits on the bench cheering people along, telling stories about the good ole days.  At best, he's the right-handed hitting part of a 2b platoon.

I wouldn't typically base much off a third of a season's performance, but it seems pretty clear that Munenori Kawasaki has earned his spot on this team.  Beyond that, Mark DeRosa has pulled more than enough weight on the field to justify his bench spot, especially if he's the token veteran on the bench.  The answer lies in making a roster move with either Izturis or Bonifacio, assuming everybody's healthy when Reyes and Lawrie are both back in the lineup, which is a huge assumption in and of itself.

Personally, I'd DFA Maicer Izturis if I had to make up my mind right now.  It's not like either guy is providing anything offensively at the moment (otherwise we wouldn't be having this talk), and Bonifacio's secondary skills (i.e. baserunning and the ability to passably play multiple positions) trump those of Izturis.  If someone wants to try and take Izturis' contract, either on a waiver claim or a trade, then by all means, go nuts.  I feel pretty confident that he'd slide right through the waiver wire untouched, and that he'd report to AAA if he were outrighted, seeing as he's got about $8.75MM left on his contract that he'd be walking away from if he rejected the assignment.  I'd be less surprised if Bonifacio were claimed, given his speed and his relatively cheap price tag.  He'd still be under team control too.

Maybe Maicer dicks around the minors for a while and figures out what has caused the drop in his numbers, and then forces his way back up when a roster spot opens up.  If Muni's performance waivers, or if someone in the infield gets hurt, he can still be brought back up.

It's certainly going to be interesting to see what AA does, if he needs to make a move in the near future.  Of course, there's still lots of time between now and that decision.  Given the news about the biogenesis stuff, there's a non-zero chance that the Jays are going to need to find another LF if Melky Cabrera gets tied up in all of this again.  The Jays could decide to try and move Colby Rasmus or Adam Lind before the deadline, or send DeRosa to a contender, making room.  Another injury could rear it's head, or one of Reyes and Lawrie could suffer a setback.  Hell, maybe Lawrie just gets optioned to Buffalo.

There may not need to be a roster move made involving any of these guys, since a lot can happen in a month, but let's just make sure that Maicer's contract doesn't blind us from what is a logical option.

Wednesday, 29 May 2013

Roster Stuff: Lawrie, Scrubs


The above photo, courtesy of The Star, gives us a pretty reasonable idea of how not to slide in to second base when stealing with a 5 run lead.  You can sort of see Brett Lawrie's right foot and ankle in the background there, demonstrating an approximation of the correct angle that foot and leg joints should point.  You can't see the left ankle, since it happens to be turned many degrees more than it should be, and is hence blocked by the left foot.

We've seen results of this before.  Twelve or so games in to the season, Jose Reyes did pretty well the same thing as Lawrie: he stole second base with a 5 or 6 run lead-- a base that he didn't really need to steal-- and slid awkwardly, bending his ankle back-and-to-the-side, which caused a pretty severe sprain and a 60-plus-day DL stint.

Given the fact that Reyes was immediately writhing in pain and needed to be carted off the field, unable to get up on his own power, we can probably say with a reasonable amount of confidence that Lawrie's injury is less severe than Reyes'.  Lawrie did, after all, try to walk it off, and stayed in the game for another play, before hobbling off to the dugout.

We don't really know the severity of the injury, but Brett Lawrie will be out for at least 15 days, as of May 28th, as he has been placed on the disabled list.

Elsewhere, Brandon Morrow only got through two innings against Atlanta yesterday afternoon, leading to 8 pretty reasonable innings out of the Toronto bullpen.  In order to keep things fresh, Ramon Ortiz, who threw four of those innings, has been DFA'ed.  Thad Weber, who threw the last of those 8 innings, has been optioned to AAA Buffalo.  The result of those three moves, as well as the DFA of Clint Robinson, has made enough room for the Jays to call up Todd Redmond, Neil Wagner, and Juan Perez.

Redmond was already on the 40-man, after being claimed by the Jays from the Orioles.  He is, and always has been, terrible, relative to his Major League peers and is one of those AAAA guys that we tend to hear about.

Wagner is also a AAAA guy, but has crushed for Buffalo so far this year, to the tune of an 0.89 ERA and 32 strikeouts in 20+ innings.

Perez has been equally effective for the Bisons, but, again, is probably a AAAA guy.  He's 34 years old and has appeared in 42 career big league games.

The influx of scrubs probably has a lot to do with the various injuries and performance issues that the Jays rotation is dealing with at the moment.  RA Dickey is dealing with neck soreness, Mark Buehrle has been mediocre or worse for all but two starts, Morrow left yesterday's game after two innings with forearm stiffness, and Josh Johnson finds himself on the disabled list with JA Happ.  It's tough to rely on Esmil Rogers to go too far in to tonight's game, given that he's been a reliever for the last few years, and it's equally tough to rely on Chad Jenkins, who was apparently 8th or 9th on the depth chart for starters.

Casey Janssen is banged up, Sergio Santos and Darren Oliver are on the disabled list, and Steve Delabar, Aaron Loup and Brett Cecil have gotten a metric crapton of work already this year.  If a starter, at some point over the next week or so, can't get through, say, the 5th inning, I'd expect one of Redmond, Wagner or Perez to shoulder a load of innings and then be sent back down to the minors immediately after, the way Ortiz was-- Redmond is the likely mop-up guy, given that both Wagner and Perez have been lights-out relievers, mostly having 1-inning outings in Buffalo.