Wednesday, 14 March 2012

wOBA vs. OPS, plus stuff

Remember that post I did once, talking about all the stats that I like to use?  This one right here?  Well I added a quick update to it today, courtesy of Walk Like a Sabermetrician, via Tom Tango's Book blog.  I never really knew how to explain the problem I had with OPS (and thus OPS+), and the way that it overrated slugging percentage, or, more wordily but equally sense-making, double counted doubles and triples.  Basically, it explains wOBA in a formulaic way, and mathematically shows why wOBA>OPS.  W stands for walk here:
If we convert wOBA equation so that the S is fixed at 2.129, we get: 
wOBA = (1.70W + 2.13S + 2.93D + 3.69T + 4.61HR)/(AB + W) 
OPS severely undervalues the walk, and somewhat overvalues the extra base hit.  If you are going to go to ANY effort to calculate a metric that includes BB, H, and HR, it makes zero sense to put that effort into OPS.
Great stuff for a nerd like myself.

Apparently expanded instant replay is going to have to wait for at least another year.  That sucks.

Alex Anthopoulos was on the Jeff Blair show this morning.  Among the discussion topics were starting pitching, Travis Snider/Eric Thames, and Adeiny Hechavarria.

On Hech: AA says he looked great, and that he didn't want to send him down to the minors this morning, but it's spring training so meh.  He's gotten stronger, and the bat speed is better than last year.  Defensively, he's good enough now, but the bat has to improve.  Tools are there, and worst case, he's a bottom of the order bat going forward.

He'd be thrilled if Hech improved to the point that he's knocking down the door, and would be totally fine putting him at 2B if, say, Kelly Johnson got hurt, despite the fact that they seem him as a gold glove SS.  Yunel is still there, and is totally a part of the team.  Lind, Snider, etc., have come up, and have needed to go back down.  Sometimes this kind of they need more time.  If he's not hitting in AAA, he's not an option in Toronto.

On trades: Same policy stands.

On Starting Pitchers: Right now, they're not bringing in pitchers.  Cecil has looked outstanding, especially the change-up.  His velocity has never been anything overbearing, so he doesn't understand why everybody is shitting their pants about the velocity.  Rates were the same as they were last year than they were the year before, so it's no biggie.  They haven't had dialogue with guys like Webb or Oswalt, or any other free agents. If the Jays bring in another starter, they'd need to be a big, big upgrade when you consider the loss of development for whoever that guy replaces in the rotation.

On Snider: Eric is the front-runner for the job, but it won't be handed to him.  Spring is a small sample.  If he goes to AAA, he'll be an option, but up-and-down is something that they'd like to avoid.  If they option him again, he can't come back up without being exposed to waivers.  He reminds us that Snider his .400 in spring last year, and we saw how that worked out.

On Vizquel: Can still play the left side of the infield. Arm strength isn't there, but footspeed and range is still there to the point that he's still very serviceable.  Reminds him of John Macdonald, in the sense that throws across the infield aren't frozen ropes, but he gets to the ball so fast that there really isn't any worry.

Dustin Mcgowan was also on the Blair show this morning, and the audio was dogshit.  He says that he feels fine for this first time in years.  At the start of the spring, he had some lingering thoughts about injury problems, but he's good to go now in terms of worrying, soreness, etc.  He still has the attitude that he has to go out there and make the team, so he's not really experimenting with new pitches and stuff.  He feels like he's the same pitcher than who he was pre-injuries, and he always wanted to stick with pitching and coming back, since he thought that he was going to come back and get to the bigs again.

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