Thursday, 8 August 2013

Checking in on Adam

A month or so ago, I wrote about the two faces of Adam Lind's season to that point.  We concluded that Lind's play, to that point, wasn't really going to be sustained for long.

Some snippets, and some comments.

In 2010-2012, he hit .246/.296/.428 and walked 99 times over 1400+ plate appearances.
There's a "+" there, which would indicate that it's 99 walks in more than 1400 PA's.  99/1400 is a 7% walkrate.  Since the fairly arbitrary date of June 9th, which was selected in the piece linked above, Lind has walked 13 times in 200 plate appearances, good for 6.5%.

But it's 2013 now, and Adam Lind is good, with a .316/.375/.528 slash line.
Lind is now hitting a still-very-respectable .289/.349/.479.

 As far as quantifiable evidence goes, though, we can see that Lind has a .363 babip on the year, versus a .299 career average, and a 9.3% walk rate, versus a 6.9% career rate. [...]he has a 144 wRC+.
His 2013 babip is down to .323.  The walkrate is still at 9.6%, which is probably helped out quite a bit by 5 walks in 24 August PA's.  wRC+ is down to 125.
 Lind's OBP peaked at .423, June 8th.  From June 9th to present, Lind has walked once, and is batting .268/.274/.537 since.  Sure, that's an .810 OPS
That's the old present.  From June 9th to present, Lind has hit .232/.285/.443.  A .728 OPS.

 Lind had a .387 babip from the start of the year through June 8th.  That's down, slightly, since then to .363.  Since June 9th, Lind's babip is a much more in-line-with-his-career-and-skillset .296
Babip is .260 since June 8, .323 overall.

Finally, platoon splits, then and now.

2013 vs. L: 2.6% BB, 29.9%K, .227/.247/.307, .244 wOBA. .314 babip
2013 vs. R: 11.4 %BB, 17.8 %K, .297/.376/.529, .387 wOBA. .325 babip

Lind is still useful against right-handed pitching, even as his babip has regressed to a more reasonable level.  Lefties though.  Jesus. He's been worse this year than over his career against lefties.

I think it's time, again, to call for the end of the Lind-era in Toronto.  The club options on Lind's contract become available beginning this coming offseason, and honestly aren't absurd, at $7MM for 2014, $7.5MM for 2015, and $8MM for 2016, with varying buyouts.  At $5.5MM per WAR, Lind would only need to be worth about 1.3WAR to be breakeven.  Lind's been worth about 1.1 so far this year, thanks in large part to his unsustainable offensive blip earlier this year.  Platooned correctly, yeah, maybe.  But he was worth -0.9 WAR from 2010-2012, and has been of negative value over the last two months; longer than he's been good.

Move along, nothing to see here.

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