2012 Previews: Atlanta Braves

Last one.

The Majors
I think this is a really good team, top to bottom.  The rotation is really good, the lineup is, at least from an offensive standpoint, really solid, and this is probably the best bullpen in baseball.

It shouldn't really come as a surprise, since they've been doing it for decades now, but this rotation is nice and deep, to the point where they could have moved a starter or two this offseason without much worry.  The Derek Lowe trade was just fine, leaving them with plenty of options to go with, without rushing any of their prospect depth to the majors.  Tommy Hanson, Tim Hudson, Brandon Beachy and Mike Minor are all front-end starters, and Jair Jurrjens is a pretty good choice for a #5.  Jonny Venters and Craig Kimbrel make up the two-headed monster at the back of the bullpen, with other weapons such as Eric O'Flaherty there to take up the rest.

As for the lineup, the only real question marks are Tyler Pastornicky and Chipper Jones' hamstring.  I fully expect Jason Heyward to return to 2010 form, but even if he's his 2011 self, that's still above average production from a 23 year old.  Brian McCann and Dan Uggla will provide the power, and Michael Bourn will provide the speed.

I expect plenty of good baseball from this team, and I think they will be the ones to put an end to the stretch of division championships for the Phillies.

The Minors
I think a lot of people overrate this system, thanks to some really special pitching prospects.  They have a lot of great pitchers in the system, but have very few position players within the system.  They can probably turn a lot of that pitching depth, either at the MLB level or at the prospect level, in to position players through trades if needed.

The Verdict
I've got the Braves going to the World Series.  They're a really strong team all around, and have enough prospects and payroll to go for it this year.  Beyond that, Chipper Jones is retiring at the end of the year, so I can see them trying to go nuts in his honor.

Projection: 92-70, 1st in the NL East.

2012 Previews: Cincinnati Reds

Canada!

The Majors
This is a pretty good time to be a Reds fan.  Walt Jocketty is going to do all he can to convince both Joey Votto and Brandon Phillips to stick around, and that involves going out and trading for young pitching studs like Mat Latos.

The offense, led by Joey Votto and Jay Bruce, shouldn't be a problem.  They scored 735 runs last season, even with uninspiring performances from Scott Rolen and the SS combo of Edgar Renteria and Paul Janish.  The latter should be tempered with the emergence of rookie Zack Cozart, though I don't really know what to say about Rolen.

As mentioned, the rotation will get a severe boost with the addition of Mat Latos, and the subtraction of Edinson Volquez.  Mike Leake, Homer Bailey and Johnny Cueto will round out a pretty decent rotation, and if everyone stays healthy, the historically terrible Bronson Arroyo won't throw 200 innings again.  This rotation is pretty thin though, so if someone gets hurt and misses a significant amount of time, it could be curtains.

The signing of Ryan Madson made this bullpen look outrageously strong, but he's now going to miss the season.  As result, "outrageously" changes to "pretty".  Sean Marshall should get the bulk of the save opportunities, and Aroldis Chapman will likely be the setup man.  Nick Masset and Bill Bray will also provide some solid relief innings.

All in all, this is a good team, and is my pick to win the sort-of-strong NL Central.  They should have been better than they were last year (and would have been if not for disappointments from Volquez and Rolen, plus injuries in the rotation which forced them to give Bronson Arroyo too many innings), and they definitely improved over the winter.  May as well make a push while Votto is here.

The Minors
I fully expect Walt Jocketty to sell out his farm system this summer.  They could use another arm in the rotation to move the virtually untradeable Arroyo to the bullpen (he has $15MM deferred in his contract, but trading him voids the deferral and that money needs to be paid upfront), and maybe find another 3B if Rolen continues to disappoint.  The problem is that they moved a lot of good prospects in the Latos deal, and now have a fairly modest system.  There are still parts there, but most of their big pieces are now in San Diego.  I can see Jocketty going after Matt Garza at some point this summer, but I'm not quite sure if he's got the pieces to get the deal done if there are other suitors.

The Verdict
When you combine the removal of Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder from the division with the improvement that this team has made over the winter, I think this is the best team in the NL Central.  If Phillips walks after this season, or if Votto walks after 2013 (Votto is obviously the less replaceable of the two), I can see some big problems going forward.  This team was bad for quite a while before winning the division two years ago; it would be nice if they could hang around for at least a little while.  Instead, it looks like they're going to have a rough time keeping both guys around, and with such a mediocre farm system, I struggle to see any success past 2013 without Votto.  The Reds should be all-in for these next two seasons, and then it might be back to the drawing board.

[Update: I'll just leave this here. http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/04/reds-to-extend-joey-votto.html]

Projection: 91-71, 1st in the NL Central

2012 Previews: St. Louis Cardinals

Your reigning, defending, MLB heavyweight champions of the world.

The Majors
If you needed evidence that anything can happen in the majors, look no further than the 2011 St. Louis Cardinals.  They were pretty damn lucky to even get in to the playoffs, thanks to the Braves shitting their pants last September, and they were about half a breath from being eliminated multiple times throughout the playoffs, but they dug in and came out on top somehow anyway.  That's not to take away from the fact that they actually won 90 games, and played really solid down the stretch, but in terms of true talent, they were probably the 13th or 14th best team in baseball.

Fast forward an offseason; elephants in the room consist of Chris Carpenter and his shoulder/nerve issue, Adam Wainwright and his return from Tommy John surgery, and the loss of Albert Pujols (replaced by Carlos Beltran).  I don't think it would be a shock to say that this team isn't favored to repeat as World Series champs, but I can certainly see them competing for the division, or at worst, a wild card spot.  They should be worse this year when compared to last, but the good NL Central teams (CIN, STL, MIL) should beat up on the bad ones (HOU, CHC, PIT) to the point where it's almost unfair.

The pitching staff, without Carpenter, looks sort of mediocre, with Wainwright, Jaime Garcia, Kyle Lohse, Jake Westbrook, and probably Lance Lynn covering.  A fairly strong, Rays-like bullpen should be able to keep the Cards in games late.

The real point of worry is going to be the offense, however.  The loss of Pujols allows the Cards to shift 36-year old Lance Berkman to 1B, making room for Carlos Beltran.  As far as replacing Pujols goes, that's good, I guess, but I'll be goddamned he comes anywhere close to Pujolsian production.  I also expect a pretty big regression from Berkman.

The Minors
The Cards have built themselves a really nice minor league system over the last few years, and it will probably be one of the best in the game if they can continue to develop their high-ceiling guys.  Pitcher Shelby Miller leads the class, and will probably be around at some point this season, especially if one of the rotation members can't hang (unless Carp comes back, shifting Lynn back to the bullpen).  They've drafted really well over the last few years, which is probably the reason why former vice president Jeff Luhnow got the GM job in Houston over the offseason.

The Verdict
I expect the Cards to take a step back this season.  The Cards themselves are a worse club than a year ago, and the Reds and Pirates have improved, which should take away some wins.  The second wild card obviously helps, and they're good enough to compete for the division thanks to the step back from Milwaukee, so I fully expect two NL Central teams to make the playoffs.

Projection: 88-74, 2nd in the NL Central

2012 Previews: Philadelphia Phillies

The Boss

The Majors
It appears as though the Phillies dynasty years are drawing to a close, especially now that Chase Utley isn't Chase Utley anymore, and the 5-year, $125MM Ryan Howard contract is only beginning.  There are still plenty of useful pieces in this lineup, but this is one of the oldest teams in the history of baseball, and we're getting in to the back halves of some contracts.  Without Howard and Utley in the lineup, there is absolutely no left-handed pop in this order.  Shane Victorino is due for a regression, and Jimmy Rollins has lost any power that he once had.  To rub that in, Domonic Brown was sent back to AAA the other day, in favor of either Scott Podsednik, or Juan Pierre.  In place of Utley and Howard, we're going to see Freddy Galvis and a lot of Ty Wigginton or Jim Thome, neither of whom are sure to put their gloves on the correct hand. Hunter Pence is the best of a bad situation.

The pitching staff is obviously still pretty fucking retarded, but nobody is immune to aging.  Halladay, Lee and Hamels make up the best 1-2-3 in baseball, and Vance Worley is a pretty good #4 option.  Beyond those four, Jonathan Papelbon and Antonio Bastardo lead a pretty decent little bullpen.  Overall, this club shouldn't allow very many runs, even in their little bandbox of a park.  The obvious caveat is that they're not going to score any either, which is a tough break in a quickly improving division.

The Minors
Having been in contention for several years now, it should be of little surprise that the Phillies farm system is very weak, having traded a bunch of pieces away in the last several years to get Halladay, Lee, Pence, and so on.  With an again major league club, and a pretty empty minor league system, there may be the need of a rebuild sooner rather than later.  They got a couple of picks after losing Jayson Werth last offseason, and probably should have let Jimmy Rollins walk as well this offseason for the same purpose, but win-now mode, I suppose.  That's not to say that they didn't have a great run, because they've won the NL East like 80 years in a row or something, and with their financial flexibility and pitching staff, they're never really all that far out of it.

The Verdict
They're still going to contend, based solely on their pitching staff, but I don't think they're going to win the division, and I think they're doomed for 2013 onward, without a big prospect rebuild.  They should win the Wild Card (one of them) thanks to pitching alone, assuming their big three can stay healthy.

Projection: 90-72, 2nd in the NL East

2012 Previews: San Francisco Giants

Cake.

The Majors
Well, Brian Sabean's insane, there's no denying that.  He pretty much refuses to let Brandon Belt play, opting instead for Aubrey Huff.  He also went ahead and traded his top prospect for 2 months of Carlos Beltran last year, only to go ahead and practically beg Beltran to sign elsewhere.

With all that nonsense, however, comes some good stuff.  Basically, Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain and Madison Bumgarner, Pablo Sandoval, and Buster Posey make this team watchable, and clearly have them entrenched as the best of a hilarious situation in the NL West this year.  Basically, the team is mediocre, which should be all they'll need in this division.

It will be interesting to see what they get from Buster Posey, coming back from a broken leg, and from Tim Lincecum, coming off of two consecutive years of decline.  If they happen to be out of the running by the trade deadline, and don't have him signed to an extension yet, look for them to deal Matt Cain.

The bullpen looks pretty fantastic, to be quite honest.  Wilson, Romo, Affeldt, and Mota have been very solid for the last few years, and should continue to crush late.

The Minors
There's not much there, especially when Brian Sabean is running the show and moving his best prospect for two months of Carlos Beltran.  Not surprisingly, when said best prospect projects as a mid-rotation/back-of-the-bullpen guy, the system can't be that deep.

The Verdict
Meh, best in the NL West doesn't really mean a ton.  Then again, STL won the world series as a wild card.

Projection: 90-72, 1st in the NL West

2012 Previews: Washington Nationals

The Chosen One.

The Majors
This is probably going to be the funnest NL team to watch.  Between Strasburg, Zimmermann, Gio, and Edwin Jackson, this rotation is going to be incredibly solid, assuming they can all stay healthy and consistent.  That's a big "if", because all four have battled a problem with one or the other to this point in their careers.  Strasburg, once he gets a full season under his belt, will probably be the best pitcher in the world for years to come, especially as Roy Halladay's career winds down.  Throw in a bullpen with Drew Storen, Tyler Clippard, and Henry Rodriguez, and I think it is safe to say that this team won't really be in too much danger of allowing many runs.

The obvious weakness of this club is the lineup.  If Jayson Werth doesn't rebound and have a nice season offensively, that contract could go down in history as one of the worst of all time.  Fortunately, Ryan Howard is still in the league, and his 5 year, $125MM deal hasn't even started yet, so he should be able to deflect any of that talk down the road to Philly.

The rest of the team's core of position players should be good to go though: Mike Morse appears to have finally broken out, as did Wilson Ramos.  Ryan Zimmerman, when healthy, is one of the best players in the game, and at 24 and 25 years old respectively, Danny Espinosa and Ian Desmond provide plenty of value up the middle.  Who knows, we might see the other Chosen One, Bryce Harper, in a Nats uniform by mid-season to help spruce up the offense.

This is going to be a good team, and they're only going to get better in the next few years.  They have very rich ownership who will be willing to spend, and their convenient back-to-back last places in years with the best prospects we've ever known (Harper and Strasburg) have put them in a position where they can build internally to become a powerhouse.  As the Phillies mini-dynasty is set to come to a crashing halt, the Nationals have a chance to contend this year, and then win for the next few.  I predict that I'll predict them to win the NL East next year.

The Minors
This was a really nice system before the Gio Gonzalez trade, but is now a bit barren.  Obviously, one of the goals of building a nice system is to turn prospects in to useful, controllable MLB-talent the way they did, so that's fine.  As a plus, they've still got Bryce Harper and Anthony Rendon, plus some other useful pieces.  Rendon might end up being blocked by Zimmerman if the latter doesn't move to 1B soon, but that's a problem that can be addressed at a later date.

The Verdict
They could surprise, especially if they can get repeat performances out of Morse, a full season out of Zimmerman, and a bounceback from Jayson Werth.  They will definitely contend, and if they're close at the deadline, they've got the financial flexibility and prospects to make a trade and take on some salary if they need to.  Talent-wise, they're probably the third best team in the division, but they should be in the running for the wildcards, if not the division.  I really like the direction that this club is moving, and they'll probably be the team to beat in the NL East in 2013.

Projection: 86-76, 3rd in the NL East.

2012 Previews: Milwaukee Brewers

I see you creepin', I can see it in my shadow.  Wanna jump up in my Yovani Gallardo.

The Majors
The loss of Prince Fielder obviously sucks, but this team is still plenty good enough to contend if things go right, especially with two wild cards.  The front end of the rotation can hang with any team, the bullpen is very strong, and they have Ryan Braun on steroids.  I worry most about the offensive contributions that this team can put up now, especially with Fielder gone, and with Corey Hart being a bit of a question mark.  They won more than their fair share of close games last season, and seemed to get blown out of the water an awful lot for a team that won 96 games.

One thing I like quite a bit about what the Brewers did this offseason was investing in some people who can actually play some defense in the infield, instead of giving Yuniesky Betancourt everyday shortstop time.  With better infield defense comes better results for Gallardo-Grienke-Marcum, all of whom had fip's under 4.

Ultimately, I don't think that they're a better team than STL or CIN, but they should be able to stay within a reasonable distance of both, and maybe if they can find a trade somewhere to pick up a legitimate 1B option if Mat Gamels (or whoever) can't hang, the NL Central race should be reasonably close at the end of the season.

The Minors
If they do happen to want to pick up a 1B option, they might have to get creative, because there isn't much in the minor league system, and they have already announced that they're going to be running over their budget this season.  There are a few arms in the system that could reach the bigs at some point in 2013, but this system is pretty thin.

The Verdict
If they can find a surprise contribution out of 1B, they might be able to contend, but I wouldn't feel comfortable betting on it.  After signing Aramis Ramirez to try to fill the gap left by Prince Fielder, they pushed their payroll beyond their planned budget, which is a scary thought considering Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum are both free agents after this season (Randy Wolf also has a $10MM option that probably won't be exercised).  If they decide that they're close enough that they want to go for it, they have a few arms in the system that could fetch a decent player.  This depends mostly on what they think they'll get out of Corey Hart, and what they think their chances are of re-signing Greinke and, to a lesser extent, Marcum.  If they think both pitchers walk at the end of the year, they might try to mortgage off their future at the expense of a few prospects to try and win now before rebuilding for a year or two.

Projection: 87-75, 3rd in the NL Central

2012 Previews: Arizona Diamondbacks

The real catching Montero.

The Majors
Well, they have a shitload of young, talented pitchers and position players.  They also have Aaron Hill.  Win some, lose some.  This team isn't nearly as good as advertised, but in a weak division, they should still be plenty good enough to contend.  They won 6 games more than their Pythagorean record would have suggested, powered by a 24-9 finish to the season.

The young core of this franchise is comprised of guys like Justin Upton, Stephen Drew, Paul Goldschmidt, Miguel Montero (I'd re-sign him before this offseason, please), and pitchers Dan Hudson and Ian Kennedy, and Trevor Cahill, so in theory, it should be all about supplementing that core with some good veterans.  Jason Kubel seems fine, especially in that park (though it kind of suppresses the use of Gerardo Parra), but the other offseason acquisitions are headscratchers. Obviously, they needed somebody to take over for Stephen Drew, based on the lack of certainty when it comes to his health, so they answered by giving John Mcdonald, Willie Bloomquist, and Geoff Blum 2-year contracts for some reason.  They also guaranteed Aaron Hill 2 years, which, if we can be serious for a second, is a goddamned joke.

This might be Kevin Towers' version of Moneyball, and taking 4 separate fliers on 2-year deals seems pretty ridiculous to me, but I guess if he can find some semblance of value (through playing time or trade) out of one of them, it won't be completely awful given their financial position, and more importantly, their position on the win curve.

The Minors
Usually, I like to look at the entire system when I talk about farm systems, but uhhh, Trevor Bauer.  Now obviously, one player doesn't make the whole system, and players, especially pitchers, can fizzle out or get hurt or just never fully hit their potential, but I think I'd feel as good about Bauer getting there as just about anybody in the game.  Beyond Bauer, they had a few nice draft picks in the last few years, and have made some trades in recent years when they were worse at the MLB level, so they've really infused their system with a lot of nice arms.  They move Jarrod Parker (and more) to Oakland to get Trevor Cahill, so that obviously hurt the system a bit, but they were deep enough that it shouldn't be a big problem.

The Verdict
I dunno, I'm just not overly fussy about this team.  Sure, they can contend in the NL West, because the NL West isn't very good, but they can just as easily fall flat on their faces, given all of the random background players filling out the rest of the roster.  I'm really surprised that they didn't sell out this offseason in order to secure themselves as the best team in the division, but maybe they're waiting for the extra arms in the minors to come up.

Projection: 89-73, 2nd in the NL West

2012 Previews: Miami Marlins

Don't call me Mike.

The Majors


This is going to be a fun, fun team to watch this year. Giancarlo-Cruz Mike Stanton may have usurped Jose Bautista as the most watchable player in baseball, thanks to his outrageous power, leading to several oooh's and aaah's.  Guys like Logan Morrison, Gaby Sanchez and Hanley Ramirez were already the makings of a pretty good core, and the addition of Jose Reyes is only going to make it better.

Mark Buehrle (or however you spell that) joins a pretty decent rotation from top to bottom, consisting of Josh Johnson, Anibal Sanchez, Ricky Nolasco, and Carlos Zambrano (?).  Heath Bell will anchor a bullpen that, frankly, is probably going to disappoint a lot of people, now that the Marlins are expected to be good.  Bell himself is going to get a pretty rude awakening, as a 36 year old closer who had the luxury of being a reliever in the NL West, pitching in Petco most of the time, and the rest of the bullpen isn't really anything special.

If the bullpen were the biggest problem that this team was going to face this year, they'd probably be in pretty good shape as far as their chances of success went.  As it stands right now, though, their biggest problem is the competition.  The Nationals, with a full season of Stephen Strasburg and Jordan Zimmermann, plus the addition of Gio Gonzalez, are quite simply, a better team than the Marlins.  Further, the Braves and Phillies were significantly better than the Marlins last year, and will return very similar teams.  Now you know how the Jays feel.

The Minors
The Marlins will get a bit of a pass here, since their two biggest prospects of the last few years (Stanton and Morrison) have just graduated to the big leagues in recent years.  However, don't get me wrong: this system is terrible.  If it weren't for the Chicago White Sox, this would probably be the worst system in the game (Cleveland and Houston might have something to say about that).  If you remember back when Heath Bell and Jose Reyes signed, I had a little bone to pick with the Marlins' management regarding the timing of this deal.  Without any assets in the minor league system, the Marlins only have two options going forward; (1) They can sign a bunch more free agents and limit their competition window to the next 3 or 4 years before the decline phase of Buerhle, Reyes, and others begin, or (2) they can be perpetually average.  What they have right now isn't going to get the job done in this division, and I have no idea how they're going to try to fix that.

The Verdict
They would be good if it weren't for the Nats, Phillies and Braves.  I can see the Phillies declining pretty sharply over the next couple of seasons, but the Braves and Nats should be, at worst, fairly good for the next few years.  They're going to need some more pieces if they want to win, so they can either open the wallets, or settle for third.

Projection: 83-79, 4th in the NL East

2012 Previews: Colorado Rockies

Tulotwatzki

The Majors
 If there's a team that could surprise in the NL, it's probably the Rockies.  Assuming the Reds winning their division wouldn't be surprise to you, because it shouldn't.  It's not like this division is overly tough or anything, I just prefer the chances of both the D'Backs and Giants to the Rockies, mostly due to massive, huge, extraordinary pitching concerns.

The lineup should be fine.  Tulo and CarGo are obviously the main attractions offensively, but beyond that, the criminally underappreciated Marco Scutaro is an excellent addition at 2B, and he should fit in nicely in front of Tulo/CarGo. Michael Cuddyer should thrive at Coors, assuming the move to hitter-heaven allows him to remain anywhere near as skillful as he's been in the last couple of years.  The fact that he can play all over the diamond in at least a somewhat serviceable manner always helps.

The big question mark is the pitching staff.  Dan O'Dowd has actually gone out and found a bunch of flyball pitchers to play at Coors, which, on the surface, sounds completely fucking braindead.  I really struggle to find any sense here, but if, for some reason, all these flyball pitchers are inducing weak flyballs instead of liners, maybe the outfielders and go and get them and O'Dowd will have put together an effective staff on the cheap.  Seems ambitious.  Whatever that rotation is going to look like by opening day, it's just going to be a bunch of 3's and 4's, but with a halfway decent bullpen backing them up.  They truly miss a frontline starter, having moved Ubaldo, but now that we've found out recently that Ubaldo wasn't happy in Colorado, it makes more sense.

The Minors
The Ubaldo Jimenez trade from last summer shored up the system nicely.  Drew Pomeranz and newly-DUI'ed Alex White should provide some value going forward, and Nolan Arenado is one of the better infielder prospects in the game, but beyond that, it's a whole bunch of depth without a bunch of star-power. The club has been in "win now" mode for the most part since 2007, whether they were actually winning or not, so building up prospects hasn't really been the plan lately.  I find that they're kind of in limbo regarding what they should do over the next few years, but they just signed Tulo and CarGo to extensions, so it's tough to justify blowing up the rest of the team around them at the moment.

The Verdict
Without a solid rotation, I can't honestly trust this team to surprise anybody, especially in this park.  They'll probably be decent, and I think a lot of people are going to be surprised at how many games they win, since most are writing them off, but they won't contend down the stretch without going out and finding a frontline starter, which they don't really have the pieces for anyway.  They might get surprising contributions from Drew Pomeranz, but I doubt it will be enough.

Projection: 81-81, 3rd in the NL West

2012 Previews: Pittsburgh Pirates

Another Justin Upton!

The Majors

This is one of those teams who have been so bad for so long that they've finally built up a farm system and a young core, whether or not that was the plan. Neil Huntington has done a nice job so far, and has been rewarded by the club with a 3 year extension this past September.  I know he's done a good job because he signed Andrew Mccutchen to a contract extension instead of trading him or letting him expire in to free agency.

This team isn't going to be overly good this year, despite all the modest additions.  They got AJ Burnett for cheap (probably a slight overpay, but meh), and they added Clint Barmes, Erik Bedard, and Kevin Correia to relatively cheap deals that could turn out to be nice prospect finders for the team.

This past year, they were actually 7 games over .500 just after the all-star break, and were actually tied for the division lead 100 games in to the season.  Whatever the fuck happened after that, I can't really say, but it didn't go well down the stretch.  They could probably compete if they were to add a good starter (or get contributions from their farm studs like Taillon), and get the performances we've been waiting for from guys like Tabata and Alvarez, but ultimately, I don't think they're good enough to compete with the better teams in this division.

The Minors
They've graduated a few guys to the majors in the last few years, but being so terrible has allowed them to draft some pretty special guys.  They have pitching out the ass, with Jameson Taillion, and Gerritt Cole, and Stetson Allie (though Allie had a bad year last year, and might be a reliever going forward). They don't have a ton of depth behind those pitchers and OF Josh Bell, but that's mostly because of their young MLB club.  There are still some nice prospects in this system, even if there aren't many fillers behind them.

The Verdict
It's coming.  I liken them to Cleveland in terms of their chances to compete.  They'll lose a doormat in 2013, as Houston moves to the AL, so their schedule should toughen a bit, but the big league roster should improve and be ready to contend by then anyway.  They're probably going to peak at the right time (two or three years from now), with both Cincinnati and Milwaukee peaking  around now.

Projection: 75-87, 4th in the AL Central

2012 Previews: San Diego Padres

I probably know less about this team than any other, save for maybe Houston, since nobody knows dick about their cornucopia of AAA lifers.  What I do know is that last year, they lost an astounding eight games more than their pythagorean record would suggest.  I also happen to know that they amount of young talent that they've stockpiled over the last few years is outrageous, and that this team is on their way up.

The Majors
I'll be honest, I paid 0 attention to this team last year, and they're one of the few teams that I have to look up to compare their 2011 and 2012 rosters.  I don't see a ton of turnaround, beyond the obvious elephant in the room in the form of Mat Latos/Yonder Alonso.

Unless I'm missing something major, Orlando Hudson and Jason Bartlett will continue to both get everyday playing time, and suck. Yonder Alonso and Yasmani Grandal are both mainstays of the future that can be added to their already excellent batch of youngsters (Headley, Maybin, Leubke), so we can certainly expect the Padres to be solid in a few years, but I think it's too soon to expect either Grandal or Alonso to be good enough to turn this team in to a contender for at least one more season.  Having said that, they play in a ballpark that really supresses offense, which makes games a lot more volatile (i.e. their 8-game differential between actual and pythagorean records last year), so they could be a surprise.  They certainly have a lot of payroll flexibility and they don't play in an overly difficult division, so if they're close at the deadline, expect them to be buyers.

The Bartlett and Hudson contracts expire after this season, and Carlos Quentin is a free agent-to-be as well, assuming they don't lock him up, so there will certainly be some work to do moving forward.  They could also stand to find another halfway decent pitcher.  If they do happen to be buyers at the deadline, look for them to acquire a middle infielder and relegate one of Hudson/Bartlett to the bench.

The Minors 
This is one of the best systems in baseball, if not the best.  Most top-100 lists released by the major scouting sources (Law/Goldstein/Callis) have few Padres in the top half, but they all seem to wax on about how, if the lists were 150 or 200 players long, that there would be 10+ Padres.  If you include the young members of the core of the major league club, you can see why this franchise is on the way up.

The Verdict
I can see this team contending in 2013, though I'm sure this season is a bit of a transitional one, and things are more geared up for 2014 and beyond.  In this division, I can see a team this youg and talented having the same problems that any young team have, and I think the pitching is going to be a pretty big weak spot as well.  With that in mind, I don't think the record of the club really matters to the front office this year, nor can it when you deal your ace in the offseason.

Projection: 77-85, 4th place in the NL West

2012 Previews: Chicago Cubs

It was ugly until this happened.  Now it's just bad.

The Majors
Man, Jim Hendry really did a number on this team.  Now I'll be honest, I'm not exactly sure what the difference between a GM and a President is, or what the President does, or what Theo is going to be doing now relative to what he was doing in Boston, but I'd be surprised if this team stays terrible for long under his/Jed's direction.  Hereon, when I refer to Theo, I'm saying it as if he is also the GM and is in charge, because he probably is.

Now that Carlos Zambrano has been traded, the Cubs only have $33MM and change (plus arbitration raises and minimum contracts) committed to their 2013 payroll, which should leave them plenty of flexibility going forward.  Now, the team isn't very good, but Theo is really good at his job, and if he really feels the need to compete, he can get creative.

You'd like to just go and trade everything that isn't nailed down, but there isn't really a whole lot of value on that roster beyond Matt Garza, since everything else is stuff that you'd rather build around (and Garza could feasibly be locked up long-term).

The Minors
Theo has already said that he'd like to rebuild this team slowly and properly, through drafting and developing prospects and building up the team internally, supplementing that with trades.  The new CBA should make it a bit tougher to do that without making some trades from his major league club, so it should be interesting to see what that plan turns in to a year or two from now.

The Verdict
The team isn't very good, especially when compared to three above-average teams within their division.  I don't think they plan on contending much over the next few years, and I think they're going to have trouble rebuilding given the state of their franchise.  The Cubs are one team that should really get nailed by the new CBA, since they don't have very many major league assets to turn to prospects, and they don't really have a great farm system to build on to.  I can't see them being any better this year than they were last year, especially if they make any trades (Garza, Dempster, Byrd, Soriano, Marmol could all go).

Projection: 72-90, 5th in the NL Central

2012 Previews: New York Mets

It just keeps getting worse.

The Majors


It was always going to be bad, but if Ike Davis actually has Valley Fever, as is being reported, then sweet Jesus.  This lineup is going to be David Wright (if he stays healthy), sort of Daniel Murphy, and that's about it. Instead of re-signing Jose Reyes, they used the money that they saved on that contract and spent it on a bunch of aging relievers who aren't worth free agent compensation anymore.  They'll get two draft picks out of Reyes, thanks to his deal with the Marlins, but if they had opted to trade him early in the season (before his injury), they could have found much more value, and would have found themselves relatively equally far from the playoffs (see: really far).

I can understand the non-trade of David Wright, thanks to the goofy little clause in his contract that allows him to void the club option on his contract, but I think the management in this organization has really dropped the ball, and the ownership fiasco obviously hasn't helped anything along.  They need to either shed the contracts of, or get rebound seasons from guys like Jason Bay and Johan Santana.

They've cut about $40MM worth of payroll since last opening day, and I don't think any team has ever had success in the season immediately following such a salary drop.

The Minors

I feel like the direction that the club is moving (eventually) is correct, but its' just going to take quite a bit of time.  This farm system isn't anything special, but it should be a lot better, since they should have traded some guys for a wealth of prospects by now.  I can see Jon Niese getting moved somewhere at some point this year, especially if he ever begins to match his peripheral stats and stays healthy.  He's pretty much Gio Gonzalez, so if he does get traded, we can expect to see a similar pile of prospects.

Until then, they do have some prospects to go along with their young position players, so it's not a complete disaster forever.

The Verdict


They could probably finish with the worst record in the NL, thanks to their division.  They'd have to be pretty unlucky, or just trade a whole bunch of their players, but it is at least possible.  They've still got some good young players, and who knows, maybe Jason Bay and Johan Santana aren't completely finished.

Projection: 71-91, 5th in NL East

2012 Previews: Houston Astros

Ah yes, the good ole days.

Majors
I can't pronounce the names of half of the players on this team.

Minors
They're just filling their MLB club with a bunch of strangers, meanwhile moving their workhorse/2nd best starting pitcher to the fucking closer position.  If they're going to do that, in the worst division in baseball, then they had fucking well better be stacking up their minor league system with super prospects.  What's that?  They didn't stack up prospects in the farm system?  Oh.

Remember last year when they traded away Michael Bourn and Hunter Pence for disappointing hauls?  Yeah, it's a good job they did, because that's about all they have in that system.  Fortunately, they've got the first overall pick this year, and are so fucking bad that they'll probably get it again next year.  They've also got new ownership (who will hopefully opt to get rid of that stupid fucking hill in CF), a new GM, and a whole bunch of new scouts and statisticians and stuff in their front office.  Hopefully for them, this will translate in to better drafting, better development, and maybe some cash in to the system to help out.

The Verdict
This team might be the worst team we've seen since the Tigers of like 2003 or whichever year they lost 119 games.  They're going to try as hard as they can to trade away both Wandy Rodriguez and Brett Myers, but they shouldn't get much of a return on either.  Beyond that, this is just a big laundry list of AAAA scrubs who have literally 0 chance of being anywhere near respectable.  They''re also moving to the AL West next year.  Enjoy.

Projection: 60-102, dead fucking last in the AL West NL Central.

2012 Previews: Texas Rangers

There's a reason why this team has gotten to the World Series two years in a row.

The Majors
This lineup.  Seriously, what Jon Daniels has done with this organization.

They were on the verge of bankruptcy when they traded ARod to New York, and now they're so fucking good it makes me want a cigarette. There just isn't an easy out in that lineup, 1-through-9.  Kinsler, Beltre, Napoli, Hamilton and Cruz all have 30+HR power (especially in this ballpark), and it seems like everybody gets on base at a good clip.  My main worry would be the health of Cruz and Hamilton.

The rotation is full of #2-3 guys, which isn't all that bad, considering the offense and bullpen.  Darvish is almost certainly an upgrade over CJ Wilson (though I think I'm a bit higher on Wilson than most), and guys like Matt Harrison and Derek Holland had breakout-ish years last year.  I'm not entirely sure what they plan to do with all of their starters/the closer situation if they really go through with the plan of moving Neftali Feliz to the rotation, but it's a nice problem to have.  I hope they keep Koji Uehara, but it looks like they're trying to trade him.  He should be their closer (if Feliz starts).

Minors

If the lineup gets Rockclapping.gif, the minor league system should get something along these lines:

Much like Tampa, this system is really chock full of high-ceiling guys.  They've graduated a few guys, and have had a few busts in the last couple of years, but it's still a great system, especially considering how good the MLB-roster is.  Texas doesn't seem to draft/develop pitchers as well as Tampa does, but neither does anybody, really.  I think Anthopoulos is following the Texas model more so than the Tampa model, since Toronto and Texas both have decent payroll capabilities, where Tampa does not.

The Verdict: This is my pick for the World Series.  I realize that it's not at all risky to pick a team that's been to back-to-back World Series', but hey, what can you do, right?  This is the best team in baseball, so they should be my pick.

Projection: 98-64, 1st in the AL West