Kevin Gregg, ladies and gents

Kevin Gregg makes me feel better about like 90% of life's problems.  If  you were watching hockey instead of baseball, the Jays scored 7 runs in the 6th inning last night, most of which after Kevin Gregg came in to the game, turning the game from a 1-run defecit to a complete runaway.  Kyle Drabek was excellent for his second straight start, mostly due to pitching against Baltimore, but also not walking a bunch of guys the way he did last year.  Edwin Encarnacion had 2 hits and a walk in 5 plate appearances, including the homerun the started the whole rally, and he'll get the day's Zaunhead.

I'd like to touch a bit more on Kevin Gregg's hilarious outing and general shittiness.  Gregg entered the ball game after the Edwin homer, where the O's had a 26.4% chance of winning the game, according to Fangraphs.  A 1-run deficit isn't the end of the world, so that 26% is well within reach with a few innings left in the game.  Gregg entered the game, and immediately allowed Jeff Mathis, the worst hitter ever, to reach on a single, scoring Ben Francisco.  Yunel Escobar and Kelly Johnson hit back-to-back RBI doubles, before Jose Bautista walked.  Edwin Encarnacion then walked to load the bases, and Brett Lawrie was hit by a pitch, scoring a run.  Ben Francisco finally grounded out for Gregg's first out, and a standing ovation from trolling Jays' fans.  Overall, Gregg subtracted 25.4% from the Orioles chances of winning, for a massive meltdown, helping the Jays more than any of their own players.  I feel like I should give him the Zaunhead.

The Jays offered Gregg arbitration after the 2010 season, which he turned down, in order to sign a multi-year deal with the Orioles, where he signed for 2 years and $10MM, plus a $6MM club option for next season.  Gregg was a type-B free agent, by virtue of getting saves, probably, and was worth a compensation pick in last year's draft.  The Jays chose Dwight Smith Jr. with that pick, and it would only be fitting that he becomes a superstar.

Anyway, it's an offday today, before the Rays come to town.  They're pretty busy getting destroyed by the injury plagued Red Sox, who have scored 31 runs so far in that series.  Probably a pretty good time to play the Rays.

Stuff
Speaking of the Red Sox, Bobby Valentine said this about his starting third baseman:

I don't think he's as physically or emotionally into the game as he has been in the past for some reason. But [on Saturday] it seemed, you know, he's seeing the ball well, got those two walks, got his on-base percentage up higher than his batting average, which is always a good thing, and he'll move on from there.

 Are you serious?  Why would you say that?  In Boston, of all places.  Bobby being Bobby.

The Dodgers got a triple play last night, helping them move to 9-1 on the season, mostly thanks to playing the San Diego Padres  in 6 of those games.  This one is in .gif form.

Nowhere Plans' baseball power rankings are up.  I think this is going to be a weekly thing, but maybe not.

Finally, Giants' closer Brian Wilson appears to be out for the season with elbow issues.  He'll probably be going for Tommy John, again.

Catching Up

Got too drunk! Needed sushi!  Didn't write!  And really, uhh... uninspiring play, so fuck it.

Zaunheads going back to Friday's game... you see, here's the problem; we can look at the win probability leaderboard from fangraphs and see that Adam Lind was the Jay with the highest WPA, despite going 0-for-3 with a walk, but fuck him.  Going by process of elimination, Rasmus and Bautista were the only people to get on base twice, and even Bautista had a negative WPA.  Rasmus was the best of a bad thing, I guess, so he's going to get it, even if I feel dirty about it.  John Farrell, by the way, really mismanaged his bullpen, leaving Darren Oliver in there for way too long.

Next, for yesterday's game, Rasmus was clearly the best Blue Jay on the field, with 3 hits and a nice little catch in CF.  Don't look now, but Rasmus is your runaway Zaunhead leader for the season, thanks to his ever-elusive double-Zaunhead.  I'm not sure that makes his doubters a bunch of jerks, or just tells us that this offense really has to pick up their pants, or if it's some combination of both.  Shows you how the small sample of 7 games matters-- he's batting .214/.258/.393 on the season, thanks to a rough start.  Kelly Johnson, meanwhile, has only 1, despite being the Jays leader in HR's, runs, WAR, and probably everything else.  Basically, ZH's are completely useless and just for fun, kind of like RBI's.

 Hey, Brett Lawrie: If you don't mind, try not to steal home with Jose Bautista up, the bases loaded, and 2 outs in the inning.  Hammel is a shit-baller, and the runs are going to come if he keeps throwing straight 90-MPH fastballs over the middle of the zone, so let's try and allow the best hitter on the team to do his thing out there, huh?  There are a few quotes here on the situation from Lawrie and Farrell.

Stuff

For those wondering, #bluejays closer Sergio Santos was in the clubhouse following Saturday's game is active for Sunday vs. #orioles.
— Mike Cormack (@MikeCormack) April 15, 2012

So there you go.  Santos has been activated from the paternity list, so I assume everything went well with that childbirth thingy.  Aaron Laffey has been sent back to AAA without even appearing in a game.  Evan Crawford was called up the other day when Santos went on the PL, but gets to stay at the expense of Laffey.

It appears that Brandon Morrow was suffering from blood-sugar nonsense Friday night, thanks to his diabeetus.  Excuses excuses.


Dustin Mcgowan is set to resume throwing, according to Gregor.

A really nice piece at Baseball Prospectus about command and control, from Adam Sobsey.

It was Gregg Zaun's birthday yesterday, and I'm going to guess that he got laid.

I think today is the Jackie Robinson day, where everybody wears his number 42 and probably gets a nice big video package memorial thing.


Today: Drabek.  Let's try and beat Baltimore today, please.  I'm guessing Nolan Reimold is this year's version of JJ Hardy, in terms of fucking the Blue Jays hard.

Lineups
Jays
Escobar SS
Johnson 2B
Bautista RF
Edwin 1B
Lawrie 3B
Francisco DH
Rasmus CF
Davis LF
Mathis C

Drabek P

Orioles are taking forever to announce their lineup, so I'm guessing
Reimold LF
Hardy SS
Markakis RF
Jones CF
Weiters C
Betemit 3B
Reynolds DH
Davis 1B
Andino 2B

Jays vs. O's, Friday the 13th

"Hey Brandon, you're facing a tough team tonight... pfft hahaha."

Yeah, so JJ Hardy isn't getting the weekend off.  Shit break, I know.  Whatever.  Anyway, as recently mentioned, Sergio Santos is away from the team for a few days, and the Jays have reportedly placed him on the Paternity List, which, at last check, is a real thing.  The paternity list is kind of like a little mini-disabled list, which allows them to call up another player in his absence.  Evan Crawford is the lucky fella this time around.  He's had three appearances in AA New Hamsphire and has pitched 4 innings of shutout ball over three appearances.  Joel Carreno was sent down to the minors less than a week ago, which precludes him from being called back up (unless an injury occurs) for 10 days.

MLBTR calls this a make-or-break year for Adam Lind.  I dunno man, he had a good season in 2009, he should be given another couple of seasons to make sure...

If you were at the home opener, you can find yourself and tag a picture of your drunk ass, and then tell reddit about it.

Lineups
Jays
Escobar SS
Johnson 2B
Bautista RF
Lind 1B
Encarnacion DH
Lawrie 3B
Thames LF
Arencibia C
Rasmus CF

Morrow P

Orioles
Reimold LF
Hardy SS
Markakis RF
Jones CF
Weiters C
Betemit 3B
Reynolds DH
Davis 1B
Andino 2B

Hunter P

First Place (tie)!

It's convenient that I didn't write anything yesterday, because the Rays lost to the Tigers, giving me a topical title, since that put them back in to a tie for first in the AL East with our Toronto Blue Jays.

Just a few housekeeping items today, since I probably won't be around when lineups get posted, but who knows.  We owe Ricky Romero a Zaunhead, and Sergio Santos an apology for Wednesday's game.  Romero looked a little shaky in the second inning, giving up a few hard liners in the 2nd inning, if I remember correctly, and then obviously the walks in the 9th, but he was pretty fantastic for the rest of it, getting 17 consecutive Red Sox out at one point.  Sergio Santos also came in slammed the door.  His appearance had a leverage index of like 3.91 or something ridiculous like that, and he just went and got a strikeout and groundout. So yeah, call for his head after two appearances all you want, just make sure you shut your damn mouth immediately afterwards.

Anyway, Baltimore comes to town tonight for a weekend set.  They started the season 3-0, by virtue of playing pretty well, and playing three games against the Twins.  They answered that hot start by getting swept by the Yankees, though they did a nice job of getting the Yanks to use up some bullpen arms.  Brandon Morrow, Henderson Alvarez, and Kyle Drabek will pitch these three games for the Jays.  Tommy Hunter goes for the O's.  Hopefully JJ Hardy gets the weekend off.

Stuff
Something Jays-related that I read yesterday while at work was this piece about Blue Jay prospects by Jason Parks (@professorParks on twitter) of Baseball Prospectus.  Really taking the negatives here, but meh.

Fangraphs examines Tim Lincecum's early season struggles.

A couple defensive blunders were captured in .gif form last night.  First, Torii Hunter runs in to a wall:

And then Matt Garza, looking to close out his complete game, misses 1B by 12 rows.

Finally, fun factoid of the day: Madison Bumgarner and Jamie Moyer faced each other in the COL-SF matchup.  Moyer, 49, is 27 years older than Bumgarner, 22.  That is the largest discrepancy in age between two opposing starters since 1965.  These hilarious Moyer facts just never quit.

Getaway Day

That was a fun little beating, huh?  It was definitely fun to see Kyle Drabek pitch well for the first 5 innings, though he really lost the zone in the 6th.  I'm not sure if that was something mental or if he was getting fatigued or what, but it would definitely be nice to see him stretch out and get deeper in to ball games.  I found that he was really losing control from the stretch, though that might just be some kind of selection bias.  I'll give Edwin Encarnacion, though he did a lot of his damage in situations that weren't exactly high leverage, but whatever, he was 2 for 3 with a walk and a tater.  And those steals!

I'm not overly fussy about what I'm seeing from Jose Bautista, but I'm sure he's eventually going to get a hold of one of those pitches that he's flailing at smash one 500 feet, but until then, I'd say he's pressing (according to my twitter feed, I'm not the only one who thinks that either).

One more against the Nomah's.  Ricky Romero gets the start today against Jon Lester. Lester has historically beaten the shit out of the Jays, though this edition of the Blue Jays doesn't necessarily have anything to do with those numbers, since he's had Corey Patterson and Lyle Overbay dragging those numbers down.  Romero, on the other hand, has a career ERA over 7 against the Red Sox, which probably means more than the Lester stuff, considering Ortiz, Ellsbury, Pedroia, but again, not that much stock should go in to this.  Afternoon start today, btw.

Sergio Santos will leave the team after today's game to be with his wife, who is set to give birth to their third child.  He's supposedly going to be back with the team Saturday, but will miss Friday's game against Baltimore.

Colby Rasmus is going to get a day off, with the lefty pitcher throwing for Boston today.  I think I'd rather let him play again, and sit Thames considering the way Rasmus has been hitting the ball for the last two days, but this isn't really a big deal either way.  Thames has already gotten a day off, and Rasmus can come in later on as a defensive replacement for the hilariously bad-at-defense Thames if necessary.  Adam Lind will get himself a day off too, but as far as I can tell, neither are injured in any way.

Finally, Mark Reynolds is good at defense:

Lineups
Jays
Escobar SS
Johnson 2B
Bautista RF
Encarnacion 1B
Francisco DH
Lawrie 3B
Thames LF
Arencibia C
Davis CF

Romero P

Nomah
Ellsbury CF
Pedroia 2B
Gonzalez 1B
Youkilis 3B
Ortiz DH
McDonald RF
Ross LF
Aviles SS
Shoppach C

Lester P

Reds Extend Phillips

I'm just going to make this your preview post for tonight's game, because I'm lazy like that.  The Reds have decided to give Brandon Phillips 6 years, and $72.5MM, locking him up through his age 36 season.  I, for one, chuckle at this deal, and think that Phillips got a complete steal with this one, especially when you consider what Ian Kinsler signed for earlier today/last night, and find it pretty hard to believe that the Reds will find any surplus through this contract (assuming a vacuum; this could have some kind of affect on a TV deal, or maybe they can justify it if they win a world series over the next two seasons).

Phillips is noticeably a worse player than Kinsler is when comparing WAR, as well as most of your other stats (though Kinsler has the advantage of playing half of his games in a bandbox, he also has tougher competition).  Kinsler has been worth ~5WAR/season over the last three years, with some excellent defense, and is a year younger than Phillips, so it's not really a surprise that Kinsler is getting a better annual value.  Phillips, meanwhile, has been worth ~3.5WAR/season over the last three, with a significant edge in games played.

In order for these contracts to be worthwhile to their respective teams, both will need to provide about 13 wins above replacement, which doesn't seem like a whole lot, considering the 5 and 6 year contracts.  It's not that I think the Phillips deal is bad for the Reds, it's just that the Kinsler deal is so much better for the Rangers, especially considering the fact that they're a better team already, and that Kinsler is a year younger.

As it stands right now, I can see Kinsler being worth 15+ WAR over the course of his deal (though that becomes much less likely if Kinsler moves to the outfield, as Dave Cameron from fangraphs suggests), giving a nice surplus to the Rangers, whereas Phillips I struggle to give the same prediction.  The Rangers have a better team right now, and that makes it a much more reasonable choice to extend Kinsler, since they can feasibly pay more than market value for a win (even if they probably won't).  The Reds are pretty good, and will contend this year, but I'd definitely give the Rangers a better chance at winning a championship over the course of these two contracts, especially when the Astros switch divisions next season.

Simply, the Phillips deal is right around market value, so it isn't that bad at all in a vacuum. Relative to the Kinsler deal signed less than 24 hours earlier, however, this deal stinks.

Tonight
Jays v Red Sox again.  Kyle Drabek will pitch for the Jays, and hopefully can keep things under control and all that junk, instead of giving us more of what we got last year.  Daniel Bard will pitch for the Red Sox.  I don't expect dick from Bard this year, in his first year as a starter.  He was unimpressive all spring (yeah, I know), and was also unimpressive when he used to be a starter before being converted to the bullpen (before being converted to a starter).  It seems as though he was working on a changeup last year, and I can only assume he's been working on it even more this spring.  For his sake, I fucking hope so, because he's not going to survive in the AL East as a fastball/slider guy if he's only throwing his changeup 7% of the time, or however often it was that he threw it last year.

I watched PTI yesterday, and Tony Kornheiser said that the most important thing for a playoff team is a closer.  Naturally, I facepalmed, but he went on to say that he worries about the Red Sox because they don't have a closer.  Not because the rotation isn't very good, but because they don't have a closer.

I also watched some of primetime sports today, mostly because I wanted to hear what that idiot had to say about the Jays game yesterday.  Instead, he had one of  the Dragon's Den guys on and they spoke for about 20 minutes about not sports.  Not sure how everything went after 5PM, because that was about all I could handle.  As an aside, I'd like to posit that Pedroia gets pitched soft and away, for a change, instead of letter-high fastballs.

Lineups
Jays
Escobar SS
Johnson 2B
Bautista RF
Lind 1B
EE DH
Lawrie 3B
Thames LF
Arencibia C
Rasmus CF

Drabek P

Red Fux
Ellsbury CF
Pedroia 2B
Gonzalez 1B
Ortiz DH
Youkilis 3B
Sweeney RF
Ross LF
Saltalamacchia C
Punto SS

Bard P

On Santos

I'd just like to wax on about (what I assume is) a bunch of people calling for Sergio Santos' head before it really starts.  Yeah, blown saves are irritating, especially after last year's Jon Rauch debacle, but we're four games in to the season.  Let's just remember back to last season, where we had Frank Francisco stinking up the joint for the first two months of the season, before really settling in and being an excellent reliever to finish off the year.  This kind of thing happens, especially with a (relatively, in terms of how long he's been pitching) young, raw pitcher and a potent lineup.  He's going to strike out a shit load of guys, and he'll have his struggles with control; it comes with the territory.  He's also going to have a lot of breaking balls in the dirt, because that slider is goddamn nasty.  Let's give him a while before we shit all over him, no?

Having said all of that, yeah, that sucked.  If this team is going to contend, this is the kind of game that they'll have to win.  Which, I suppose, they did twice in Cleveland, so...  Call me old fashioned, but this is about what I've expected so far, save for maybe a little bit more offense.

I'm glad to see that Colby Rasmus finally showed up.  I really think that he's the guy that we're going to need to have the most patience with, but as long as he can keep that defensive awesomeness up, I'll be just fine with him, and all the offensive contributions will be gravy.

Elsewhere around the league, Ian Kinsler and the Texas Rangers agreed to a 5 year, $75MM contract extension last night.  The deal is for $70MM with an option, and the option comes with a $5MM buyout.  Kinsler only needs to be worth about 13WAR over the course of the contract for the Rangers to break even on this one, and seeing as he's been worth 11 fWAR over the last two seasons, despite missing a bit of time, I think this one is a pretty safe bet.  Excellent work by Jon Daniels here.

Also happening in extensionland last night was a deal between the Indians and Joel Carreno-killer Carlos Santana.  He agreed to a 5 year, $21MM contract, taking up his final five years of team control (and an option for his first year of free agency).  Jonathan Lucroy agreed to a 4 year, $11MM deal with the Brewers recently, and Santana is significantly better offensively.

Yu Darvish disappointed last night, throwing 42 pitches in his first inning, and allowing 4 runs.  He settled down after that, getting in to the 6th inning.  Way to spend wisely!