Day After Day Off

Offdays are boring, but so are the days after the offdays, since there's so rarely anything to write about.  This isn't exactly different. I watched Roy Halladay pitch last night, and he looked quite a bit better than he has, but I wouldn't exactly say that he's back to normal.  It was still nice to see the Phillies lose in hilarious fashion though, thanks to Jonathan Papelbon's inability to get a rookie out.

It was also neat to see the "best team in baseball" lose to the Rangers by 11 runs.  O's fans are completely insane if they think that this kind of run is sustainable.  It's alright to be optimistic, but thinking that the O's are going to survive in the AL East is just insanity, as is being certain that a bad team who wins 20 of their first 30 or whatever is just bound for success. I wouldn't call that linked '09 Jays team bad, per se, considering the 84 win Pythagorean record, it's just that the Yankees won 103 games that year.  Such is life in the AL East.  I'm not saying that the first 28 games of the season meant nothing because they got whooped in the 29th either here, I'm just kind of looking at the bigger picture.  Of course, anybody that reads this probably doesn't need to be told that, since only people who cheer for Baltimore actually believe in Baltimore, and even then it's tough to be sure.

Anyway, before I start rambling, Cole Hamels got suspended for intentionally throwing at Bryce Harper, which will probably just delay his next start a day or two.  Still, without Cliff Lee (and with Roy Halladay pitching like not Roy Halladay), losing Hamels for a start seems bad for business.

Apparently Mariano Rivera had a complication in his leg when they went to do surgery yesterday.  That's about all we know at this point.

Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) loves the Jays' defense so far.  Lawrie, Escobar and Johnson all lead the league so far for their respective positions, and Colby Rasmus ranks 2nd among CF's, though DRS through 28 games pretty much defines small sample size.  Still, it's something.

Runs Batted Out has a look at Henderson Alvarez, and how likely it is that he sees a whole lotta regression in pretty much every sense of the word. For what it's worth, if my understanding of babip is correct, the fact that Alvarez gets so many groundballs, combined with the Jays' amazing DRS (see how I brought that back?) means that Alvarezeseses babip should be low.  Obviously it shouldn't be .220-low, but groundballs yield a higher percentage of outs that line-drives or flyballs, and if this infield, defensively, is anywhere near as good as advertised (i.e. the shifts, DRS), something below the 3-year league average of like .290 or whatever it is should be pretty sustainable.  All in all, good stuff.

Shi Davidi has a prospect update.

Beyond the Boxscore looks at the surprising amount of closer turnover through the first month of the season.  Typically, you can expect 10 closers to lose their jobs to poor performance or injury throughout the season; 14 of 30 teams have a different closer than what they began the season with.

Should have more later.  It's a late game tonight, as the Jays start a 2-gamer with the A's in Oakland.

Old Drabek Returns

I have about 3 minutes to write, so this will be fast.

I would hazard a guess that Kyle Drabek will find himself in the minor leagues at some point this season, because he looked like shit in last night's game, and looked equally bad two starts ago.  I realize that guys go out and have mediocre starts all the time, and that it probably wasn't actually as bad as I'm making it seem due to the horrific defense that the Jays played last night, but meh.  He still doesn't hit the glove all that much, and throws way too many pitches out of the zone, and it's getting to the point where I'm not sure I really believe in him as a major league starter.  Maybe a bullpen role.

Last night's game kind of sucked, no?  Between the sketchy defense and the nobody doing much offensively and the getting picked off/caught stealing and the thick Anaheim air that stops Edwin from hitting a homerun. No wonder Albert doesn't have one yet.  Adam Lind found a nut hit a homerun off a lefty, which should get him another 6 weeks or so as the cleanup hitter despite being a terrible offensive and defensive first baseman, and Brett Lawrie doesn't quite understand the mechanics of defending against the bunt.  All in all, a pretty depressing effort by the same team who took two of three from Texas like 4 days ago.

Friday we got Henderson Alvarez kicking some ass, and Jose Bautista hitting a 2-run homer, and getting on base twice.  Combined with his RBI single last night, I guess he can have a Zaunhead, mostly since I don't feel like giving one to anyone for last night's game.  This way Alvarez gets one as well for his complete game shutout.  Don't like it?  Call and complain.

Hutch will pitch today.  It's an afternoon game that I'm probably going to have to Tivo if I feel like watching.

Stuff
Gregor Chisolm had several items of news last night.  I'm just going to link to his twitter instead of getting all of the individual tweets linked in here because I have no time.

Travis Snider is about ready to come back from his wrist issue.

Dustin McGowan is doing some strength exercises on his shoulder, and is set to resume throwing on May 17.

Brett Cecil's groin issue is going to need another bullpen session or two before he gets back in to games.  He's still in AA New Hampshire.

Sergio Santos will go to Dunedin after the Oakland series to begin his rehab.

Gregor also has a post on the Jays official website about Lind and Bautista's struggles at the plate. It comes with this little gem from Adam Lind:

At the beginning of the year, I wasn't really swinging the bat the way I'm capable," said Lind, who entered play Saturday hitting .195 with one home run and seven RBIs. "I mean, I was having good at-bats, seeing pitches, being a bit passive I think, but I had a talk with the staff and they said we don't care about walks anymore, go up there and swing hard

Fantastic, we're going to get more of Adam Lind flailing away at breaking balls at his feet and fastballs around his eyes.

I always thought Jerome Williams was a lefty, but I guess not.  He'll start against the Jays today.

Lineups
Jays
Johnson 2B
Thames LF
Bautista RF
Lind 1B
Encarnacion DH
Lawrie 3B
Rasmus CF
JPA C
Vizquel SS

Hutchison P

Angels
Not posted yet, don't care.

A Month In: How'd we do?

We're a month(-ish?) in to the season, and since I made a whole whack of predictions and previews leading up to the season, I may as well go back and twist my own words and cherry-pick things I was right about to make myself sound smarter than I really am. Ready? Go.

First, I'll tackle some predictions I made about individuals. Most of these will be found in my fantasy piece from Nowhere Plans, but anything I can find from my 2012 Team Previews, I'll link to as well, and then I'll look through my team record predictions and cross-reference them with actual, year-to-date performance.

Statement:

I’d personally take Kinsler over both Cano and Pedroia, especially in Arlington, and I've actually passed on both Cano and Pedroia with the intention of waiting to grab Kinsler with a later pick, using Ben Zobrist, Howie Kendrick, and Michael Cuddyer as backup options.

Small Sample Result: Jose Altuve leads 2B in WAR with 1.5, but right behind him is Kinsler, with 1.2 WAR.  Kinsler leads both Cano and Pedroia in almost all the major offensive categories.  Thumbs up.

Statement:

[...] if you miss out on Pujols, Gonzalez, and Votto, you can wait a little while for guys like Ike Davis (assuming the Valley Fever scare doesn’t end his season) or Freddie Freeman.

Small Sample Result: Freeman leads Gonzalez, and Pujols in WAR, and is tied with Votto.  Votto's walkrate is outrageous (22.4%), while Freeman's is also outrageous but for a different reason (4.4%), but that's not really the point.  Freeman has been a pretty good fantasy option (.302 BA, 5HR, 21 RBI), and if you drafted him, you probably got him pretty late. Thumbs up.

Statement:

[...]I’d rather take Bautista ahead of Cabrera[...]

Small Sample Result: *Whiff*.  Bautista looks like he might maybe kinda be coming around a bit, but has been worth 0.2 WAR so far.  Cabrera has been worth 0.7WAR, for the record.  Thumbs down.

Statement:

Sleepers: Brennan Boesch, Jason Kubel

Small Sample Result: Boesch has been worth -0.8 WAR, thanks in part to his 1.9% walkrate, .243 OBP, and -5.5 runs from fielding, but he's hit 4 HR's with 13 runs scored and 13 RBI, so from a fantasy perspective, it could be a lot worse. Kubel has 3 HR's and is batting over .300, though he's striking out a lot so that's not sustainable (or he's going to strike out less and keep the average up).  Thumbs sideways.

Statement:

David Ortiz doesn’t appear to age

Small Sample Result: Confirmed. 6 HR, 22 RBI, 17 R, .371 BA. Thumbs up.

Statement:

Brandon Morrow, Ubaldo Jimenez, and Jordan Zimmermann are guys who might get passed on due to high ERA’s from last year.  All will give you good strikeout totals and should see improvements this year.  Look for Morrow and Zimmermann to break out this year, and for Ubaldo to get back on track. 

Small Sample Result: Morrow has been fucking nails and hasn't allowed a run like 15 innings or something, and Zimmermann's ERA is under 2, despite having 2 L's.  Ubaldo has been disgustingly bad, walking more than he's struck out through 5 starts.  2 out of 3?  Thumbs up

Statement:

If you’re happy with your team and want to start going for closers, you should be able to find some value with lower-profile guys like Frank Francisco, Jim Johnson, Sergio Santos, Huston Street, and Jordan Walden.

Small Sample Result: Meh, amazing, hurt, hurt, and terrible, respectively.  Thumbs sideways.

Statement: 

[re: Texas] This is the best team in baseball

Small Sample Result: They're technically like 1 game behind Tampa for the best record in baseball, but the schedule should fix that eventually.  "best team" doesn't necessarily dictate that they should have the best record at all times, and can easily mean that they have the best roster (which they do).  Fuck you, I'm taking it; Thumbs up.

Statement:

[re: Toronto] this team would probably win or contend in all 5 of the divisions that they aren't in.  I certainly think that they'd win the NL Central and West, and could contend for Wild Card or better in the other three divisions as is.

Small Sample Result: The Jays have 16 wins, which would be enough to lead two divisions, and be a single game back in the other three.  Thumbs up.

Statement:

[re: Houston] This team might be the worst team we've seen since the Tigers of like 2003 or whichever year they lost 119 games. 

Small Sample Result: 

 [re: Baltimore] They're 12-14 overall, and have won 4 straight.  They're still going to be fucking horrible, but I'm not feeling very good about my prediction of them only winning 60 games, since they're on a pace to win something in the area of 75.  Obviously they can fall off that pace, but, without looking at their schedule, I doubt they can plausibly go 48-96 over the rest of the season. Thumbs down.

Statement:

Ultimately, the Orioles are a total lock to come last in their division this season, and they don't even have a  tunnel to have any light at the end of.  The team is bad, the farm system is bad, and if I had to guess, I'd say their scouts and staff are terrible as well.

Small Sample Result: Well, I still think they're a total lock to finish last, but this team is a helluva lot better than I gave them credit for.  I had them slated to finish with 61 wins, and based on their 17-9 record, they're well on their way to blowing that out of the water.  I can't see them even threatening 80 wins, since that pitching staff's performance is in no way sustainable. Thumbs ever so slightly down.

Statement:

 [re: Minnesota] Mauer and Morneau playing 140+ games each will go a long way towards getting this team away from the 100-loss mark

 Small Sample Result: They're 7-18 (tough schedule so far). Mauer has played 24 games, and Morneau 20.  That's on pace for about 140 from Morneau, and more from Mauer, but they're still winning less than 40% of their games.  The schedule should get easier, but the offense has been so disgustingly bad that they might still lose 90 games with 140 games from both. Thumbs down.

Statement:

Between Strasburg, Zimmermann, Gio, and Edwin Jackson, this rotation is going to be incredibly solid, assuming they can all stay healthy and consistent.

and

They will definitely contend, and if they're close at the deadline, they've got the financial flexibility and prospects to make a trade and take on some salary if they need to.  Talent-wise, they're probably the third best team in the division, but they should be in the running for the wildcards, if not the division. 

Small Sample Result: Yay!  The Nats have slowed down from their hot start, but still lead the NL East. Their pitching has been completely retarded, and we can blame the offense for most of the downward trending that's occurred.  Sticking Bryce Harper in the 3-hole is really ambitious, but without Morse and Zimmerman, I don't really have many better suggestions. Thumbs up.

Statement: 

[re: Dodgers] 73-89, 5th place in the NL West

Small Sample Result: The Dodgers are 17-9, thanks in large part to Matt Kemp being 2.3 wins above replacement and a .400/.500/.900 area slash line.  That pace isn't going to continue, nor do the Dodgers get to play the Padres for a quarter of their games or whatever it's been, but they're still in first in the NL West.  That division is nothing special, so it won't be a huge surprise if the Dodgers are still towards the top of the division (or find themselves in a wild card race) a few months from now.  Thumbs down.

Statement: 

[re: Detroit] I meh at this team.

Small Sample Result: 13-12, perfectly meh.  They've probably had one of the easier schedules to this point, when looking at AL teams.  I'd certainly be shocked if they were really a true-talent 84-win team, as their current record would suggest (52% winning percentage), and I'm sure they'll get hot and win 10 in a row at some point when the schedule allows them to play Seattle, Oakland and Minnesota, and they're probably going to go get Matt Garza at the deadline to make a push for the playoffs, so everything will be alright.  Until then, Thumbs up.

Game 2

Derp

This whole "Jays game at night" thing is really messing around with my Chi.  I almost feel like an asshole if I don't make two posts a day while they're on the West Coast, since lineups are never up by the time I make my first one.

I guess the big news is that Mariano Rivera announced today that retiring after his recent injury would be chicken shit (my words), and that he'll be coming back for another season.

Mariano: "I am coming back. Write it down in big letters. ... I'm not going out like this."
— Mark Feinsand (@BloggingBombers) May 4, 2012

I guess that's cool.

Fangraphs has a look at Brandon Morrow's start from last night.

Other than that, uhhh... I guess there's a closer controversy in Chicago, as Carlos Marmol has officially lost his 9th inning job.  Francisco Cordero is a closer.

The Angels optioned Kevin Jepsen to AAA to make room for newly acquired Ernesto Frieri.

Lineups
Jays
Johnson 2B
Escobar SS
Bautista RF
Lind 1B
Encarnacion DH
Lawrie 3B
Thames LF
Rasmus CF
Mathis C


Alvarez P


Angels
Trout CF
Izturis 3B
Pujols 1B
Morales DH
Hunter RF
Kendrick 2B
Trumbo LF
Aybar SS
Wilson C

Santana P

MOARROW

So that was nice to see, huh?  I mean, this Angels' lineup isn't really firing on all cylinders at the moment, but hey, kick 'em when they're down, right?  Morrow threw a complete game shutout, allowing just 3 hits (with a little help from the defense), walking none and striking out 8.  Morrow was straight up nasty, and really only relied on his fastball and slider, throwing 2 changeups to boot.  He topped out at 96MPH a few times, but sat around 91-94 for most of the night.  He used his slider very effectively as a strikeout pitch, getting 7 whiffs on it, 5 of those coming on pitches in the dirt or at least below the knees out of the zone.  Most importantly, he kept the ball in the strikezone, keeping his walks and pitchcount down, ending the game on pitch 102.

Morrow allowed a homerun to Eric Hosmer to lead off the 2nd inning on April 23rd vs. Kansas City, and then shut them down for 4.2 more innings.  He then shutout Seattle for 6 innings before throwing a complete game shutout last night, giving him 19.2 shutout innings in a row, and he has 1 walk during that span.  Not bad.

Thumbs up to JP Arencibia for his 3-run homerun, and to Lawrie and Johnson for each getting on base thrice, but the Zaunhead goes to Morrow, quite obviously.

It's another late game tonight, as Henderson Alvarez goes against Ervin Santana, of Blue Jays crushing fame.  Having said that, he's been terrible so far this season.

Stuff
Sergio Santos rejoined the team yesterday, though that may have been because he's from California and happened to be in the area when the Jays showed up to LA the other night.  He hopes to throw this weekend.

The Angels traded two prospects for reliever Ernesto Frieri.  He'll join the team today.

The Dodgers have signed Bobby Abreu to be a backup outfielder and bench bat.

If you've somehow missed it, Mariano Rivera tore his ACL shagging flyballs yesterday and will miss the rest of the season.  He's 42 years old, and has hinted at retirement after this season, but this would be a shitty way to go out.

Finally, Kyle from Driveline Baseball and Baseball Prospectus has a piece on BP about Ubaldo Jimenez' mechanics and velocity decrease.  Good stuff.

Catching Up

I tried pretty hard yesterday to get something up before yesterday's game, but I was at work and there happens to be a profanity filter on all of the computers and it would appear that the frontpage has just enough swears on it to prohibit me from fucking writing anything on it.  I only got home in time to see the Jays take an 8-1 lead, so uh, yeah.  2 out of 3.  Now who's upset about getting swept by the Orioles?

Obviously you can't just take it out, because it happened, but Ricky Romero was pretty good in 7 innings, and not so much in 1.  I figured they were just going to take him out after that inning, but he recovered and went 8, which is always good for the bullpen.

Zaunhead to Brett Lawrie for Tuesday's game.  Lawrie obviously hit the walkoff tater to win in the bottom of the 9th.  That top of the 9th was pretty absurd, and the game should have been over on a botched 3rd strike call, but whatever, I won't complain now.  A zaunhead also goes to Yunel Escobar's game yesterday.  He was moved to the 2-hole and answered with a 3-hit game, so obviously he's fixed now, right? Just move Bautista somewhere and he'll return to form, just that easy.  Or better yet, move Lind to the bench and "fix" him.  And by fix, I mean "if he doesn't play, he can't suck that much."

The Jays now head to Anaheim, where Jered Weaver just no-hit the Twins. Naturally, the Jays will avoid Weaver, since he did the no-hitter last night. It will be 4 games in LA for the Jays, then 2 more in Oakland, then 4 straight in Minnesota before coming home, coming home, tell the world I'm coming home.  Brandon Morrow vs. Dan Haren tonight should make for a pretty damn good pitching matchup.

In case you missed it, Roy Halladay was human last night, AJ Burnett was AJ Burnett last night, and Weaver threw a no-hitter (against the Twins).

More later.

Lost 4-1? Not bad

Drabek actually looked pretty effective out there, striking out 9 guys over 6 innings, and actually getting something like 18 whiffs.  All in all, I thought Drabek, and thus the Jays, were going to get completely shelled, the way they're about to in about 2 hours.  To be perfectly honest, I was expecting like 6 walks and a bunch of homers, but that nonsense all came from Evan Crawford, and the first homer was actually a halfway decent pitch.  I'm praying Coco doesn't get in there in a close game.

Hutch tonight.  I'm scared.  Having said that, the Rangers only have 4 guys that could be cleanup hitters in the lineup tonight, instead of the usual 6, as both Josh Hamilton and Adrian Beltre are out.  Hamilton is still out with a sore back, and Beltre will sit due to the toll the turf takes on his legs.  Beltre went 3-for-5 last night.  So uhh, this might be the one to win guys.

John Farrell has said, by the way, that Bautista has earned his spot in the 3-hole in the lineup, and will be given as long as it takes to sort himself out. No word on whether or not Adam Lind has also earned his spot in the cleanup role due to a good season 3 years ago.

Stuff
We have our power rankings up at Nowhere Plans, and Sean has his take on Albert Pujols' slow start.  For the record, I uhh... small sample size for the most part.

John Lott looks at Kyle Drabek with the help of pitch f/x and tries to determine something based on his first five games of the year.

Evan Longoria pulled a hamstring last night sliding in to second base, and he'll be out for 6-8 weeks, much to the shagrin of fantasy owners and Rays fans the world over, though Andrew Friedman says that nothing is official yet.  Pick up Chase Headley to fill the hole on your fantasy roster.

If you're ever at Tiger Stadium and don't want to use data...

Lineups
Jays
Escobar SS
Johnson 2B
Bautista RF
Lind 1B
Encarnacion DH
Thames LF
Lawrie 3B
Rasmus CF
Mathis C

Hutch P

Rangers
Kinsler 2B
Andrus SS
Young DH
Cruz RF
Murphy LF
Napoli C
Moreland 1B
Gonzalez 3B
Gentry CF

Feliz P