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The Bench and Bullpen Bind

I was listening to Behind the Dish (Keith Law's podcast) yesterday, in which he and Dave Schoenfield discussed the concept of the 13-man pitching staff, and the more-or-less uselessness of the LOOGY (starts around 9:40).  Naturally, I immediately thought of our good friends, the Toronto Blue Jays, who are, in all likelihood, bringing 13 pitchers up North.

Law calls the LOOGY the "biggest waste of a roster spot" in baseball, for example, and he'd rather have a guy who can go a few innings in the bullpen, so as to deepen a bench.  Makes sense.

To me, this isn't a huge deal, especially given the way that the Jays (presumably) are planning on going about this.  I really hope that the plan is to trade, outright, or possibly option a pitcher to AAA once Brett Lawrie returns to action.  Until that happens, we're going to see both Emilio Bonifacio and Maicer Izturis playing practically everyday, which makes the bench as follows: Rajai Davis, Henry Blanco, Mark Derosa.

Yuck.

Not that there's a whole lot else available, but still.

A look at these guys (Career wOBA, 2012 wOBA, career wOBA vs. LHP and career wOBA vs. RHP):

Blanco: .223, .286, .317, .264
DeRosa: .330, .257, .362, .319
Davis: .306, .299, .338, .253

So basically, Davis can kind of hit against lefties (.285 wOBA vs. LHP this past season, over a small sample), while Blanco and DeRosa seem polite.  DeRosa could hit lefties in 2009, and has done dick since.  He can at least take a walk, so he might be an improvement over Adam Lind, especially against LHP.

I tend to like a bench to mask the weaknesses of the lineup.  In this particular case, I see the weaknesses being Adam Lind and Colby Rasmus vs. LHP, and JP Arencibia pretty much always.  If this were 2008, DeRosa would be great to be able to plug one of those holes.  This is five years later.

I realize that once Lawrie is back and playing 3B every day, we'll see Bonifacio or Izturis filling that last bench slot, and seeing as they're both switch hitters, things will probably improve, and that this will probably only last for like 6 games max, but still.

Hopefully everybody's nice and fresh to begin the year, because this is probably the worst bench in baseball right now.  It's not like we're playing National League baseball here, so we don't need to worry about multiple pinch hitters every night; I just hate having such an exploitable detail about a team.  Lind and Rasmus are both really vulnerable to lefties, and at the moment, there are no alternatives that make me at all comfortable.

Demotion-gate: Day 2

So we've had a day or so to let this one digest.  What's coming out on the other end?

First, and probably most importantly, JA Happ was sharp today against Tampa, in their 6-1 win.  Happ entered today with a 1.89 ERA over 6 spring appearances, and only gave up a single run over 4.2 innings.  Colby Rasmus hit a grand slam in that particular game as well.

Alex Anthopoulos spoke with the media yesterday about the Romero demotion.  The money quote, if there's one at all, was at the end-- "he definitely took a step forward today; he just needs a bit more time."  I assume that's speaking about the mechanical adjustments made last week, but you never can tell with this guy.  Anthopoulos was also on the FAN590, presumably discussing the same thing, but I've yet to listen to that.

Romero being sent down kinda sorta opened up a spot on the 25-man roster, if you squint.  I say that mostly because Brett Lawrie's injury was the real catalyst in that, but also because Brett Cecil is one of the benefactors of the extra room.  Assuming JA Happ was never going to be a member of the bullpen, Romero's demotion doesn't really matter either way here, but Happ being in the rotation may have theoretically opened up a spot for whichever of Brett Cecil and Jeremy Jeffress wouldn't have made the opening day roster.  As it stands, both Cecil and Jeffress are going to make it, at least for now, as the Jays will go with an 8-man bullpen to start the year.   More from Gregor.  I think it's going to take some getting used to, seeing Cecil on the big club, with Romero in the minors.  Of course, if you listened to Keith Law's new podcast, Behind the Dish, you'd know that 8-man bullpens don't sit well with him.  I'm fairly confident that this will only last until Lawrie returns, at which point one of Jeffress or Cecil will be traded or outrighted and everything will return to normal.

For the record, we're going to be going with the following in an order determined by who I think of first: Dickey, Buehrle, Johnson, Morrow, Happ, Santos, Janssen, Oliver, Cecil, Jeffress, Delabar, Rogers, and Loup.  The Offensive side of things will feature Bautista, Reyes, Edwin, Lind, Cabrera, Izturis, Bonifacio, Rasmus, Arencibia, Blanco, Derosa, and Davis, until Brett Lawrie returns.  More on that in an hour or so, in a new post that's coming.

Elsewhere, Fangraphs' Jeff Sullivan examines RA Dickey, and his approach when pitching against other pitchers.  Sort of moot now, given Dickey's shift to AL baseball, but, much like AA, there's a money quote at the bottom.  Some quick context: Dickey threw a bunch of 80MPH fastballs to batting pitchers, striking them out just 17% of the time, vs. the league average of 38%.  As an above-average pitcher, with average or above-average strikeout abilities, this is peculiar.

In that regard, this post doesn’t mean much of anything. It’s strictly a look back at a curious phenomenon. But if there are people out there who think Dickey is due for a rough adjustment to the AL since he won’t get to feast on pitchers, well, about that. It should be less of a factor than you might think.

Breaking: Romero's Humility

It's happened.  Ricky Romero has been optioned.  Sent down.  Minorized.

The shocker of it all?  He's gone to A-ball.  Not Buffalo.  Not Lansing.  A-ball.  That's two A's fewer than what I was expecting.

Granted, the A-ball affiliate is in Dunedin, which is where the MLB camp happens to be.  Probably just a trip down the road, if not next door.

JA Happ has apparently been told that he'll be the #5 starter to begin the year, as if it could be anybody else.  If the Josh Thole demotion wasn't enough, the Romero demotion completely crushes my roster-bracket.

Naturally, we're all going to look back and say "Well, Roy Halladay went all the way back to A-ball, and he became the best pitcher of our generation."  I'll not be saying such a thing.  I'll instead be reflecting on just how shitty this is for a seemingly great guy like Romero.

For his part, Romero pitched today and went 4.1 innings, allowing 6 hits and 3 runs.

Roster Stuff

As expected, Brett Lawrie will start the season on the DL. The big key is getting him back to 100%. #bluejays
— Barry Davis (@SNBarryDavis) March 25, 2013

I think he can come back like 4 days in to the season or something like that, but still.  15 days from today is the 8th, but Lawrie hasn't appeared in games for like a month now, so it can definitely be retroactive.  The result?

With Lawrie out, Gibbons says he'll use "platoon" at third. DeRosa and perhaps Izturis, although Gibbons didn't specify.
— John Lott (@LottOnBaseball) March 25, 2013

It would appear that we're going to have both Boni and Izturis in the lineup most days, at least to start the year, given that there is hardly any middle infield depth.  Sounds kind of shitty.

This, of course, means that we're really likely to have a 13-man pitching staff, with an 8-man bullpen.  Brad Lincoln was optioned to AAA last night, but Dustin McGowan, Jeremy Jeffress and Brett Cecil (possibly Aaron Loup too) are all fighting for what appears to be a single bullpen spot.  Lawrie being sent to the DL probably allows the Jays another week or so to evaluate their bullpen options or make a trade or something.

Elsewhere, Josh Thole was optioned to AAA last night as well, and JP Arencibia will catch RA Dickey in the season opener.  JP will get the lions share of the work, and they'll split the Dickey catching duties.  Mike Nickeas has been told that he won't make the team, but will stick around with the team before reporting to minor league camp.

Anthony Gose has also been optioned.

Breaking: Vernon Wells is Probably Getting Traded to NY

Vernon Wells has not been the worst player in baseball for the last two years.  That honor goes to Jeff Francoeur.  That's apparently good enough for the Yankees, as they appear to be willing to acquire Wells from the Angels, in exchange for probably several dozen million dollars and some collateral scrub.

I was thinking last week or the week before about trying to figure out what the hell it would take to trade Wells, sort of in the way I've done with Carlos Zambrano and AJ Burnett, but I gave up since I determined that there was absolutely no chance of anything ever happening ever.

I was thinking that it would be entertaining to have Wells be terrible in New York, but I guess it couldn't really get any worse than it was in Anaheim.  Yankee Stadium is a joke park, so his raw numbers will probably improve a bit, but really, I doubt anyone even notices he's there.

Stuff: PTS, Romero

 

 Holy shit, there were a lot of people on Prime Time Sports today.  Which is both good and bad, I suppose.  On one hand, we get some useful interviews with some familiar faces, but on the other hand, we need to listen to Bob McCown and Stephen Brunt speak.  It could be worse, but it could sure be a lot better.

I haven't found a version (2 parts) of it online (yet, at least), but at this present moment,; Paul Beeston is speaking on my television internet.  If I owned an external drive capable of doing so, I'd just DVR it and send it straight to the internet, but alas...

Beeston's highlights include:

• Wants grass, and has been "given the green light to come up with a plan" to fire some grass in there.  It's gonna happen.  '16, '17 or '18.  Gonna happen.  Big issue is that there needs to be drainage systems implemented.  Can't just lay an inch of dirt and throw grass in-- gotta dig and create drainage.  Grass is going to happen though.
• The complex formerly known as Windows is going to be accessible from 100s and 500s.  Walk around, have a chili dog or something, and go back to your seat.  Concession stands, maybe some kiddie attractions.  Brunt says that PTS will shoot from there sometimes?
• Beeston says that a player or two have asked specifically to have the roof closed on a day where it was otherwise nice enough outside to have it open, or vice versa.  It depends on the pitcher asking.  So yeah, maybe we'll get Dickey requesting a closed roof to get some knucklers going, but for the most part, if it's a nice day out, the roof is going to be open.
• The word "collegiality" was used not fewer than two times.  Atmosphere!  Teamwork!  Chemisty!  So much for the only excuse that old people have for the Jays this year.
• Marcus Stroman is, apparently, the kind of guy that everybody just lines up to watch.  More on him later.
• Big cudos to scouts and development staff of the organization, and the trade wouldn't have come without them.
• Beeston expects fewer than three million fans this season, still expects there to be extra cash available at the deadline if there's a need.
• Probably won't be able to get an extension done with Josh Johnson in-season, regardless of how badly they (i.e. the organization) would like to get it done.  Wait 'til after.
• McCown ask his trademark troll question-- Would the offseason overhaul of the big league club have occurred if Farrell stayed?  As if the Jays improved this year because of spite for John Fucking Farrell.  What the fuck kind of answer were you expecting?  Christ.

Stroman's interview is actually pretty good, and is linked above.

His highlights:

• He plans on going back to school to finish things up.  Me too buddy.
• He measures in at 5'7''.  Me too buddy.  As long as you can create the downward angle, he says, height is no big deal.
• He's throwing four pitches (Fastball, Curve, Slider, Change).  That sounds to me like he's starting moving forward.  Says he isn't sure what the end goal is-- he's got the mindset to close, or so he says, but he'll start if need be.
• An over-the-counter stimulant led to his suspension.  Apparently he wouldn't have been suspended if he was on the 40-man, for some reason.  Either way, the plan is extended spring training, and then New Hampshire, after the suspension is served.

Arash Madani gave us a break from McCown, as he interviewed Adam Lind, who, as Madani pointed out, is batting OVER .400!!! this spring.

Lind highlights:

• Yoga and a lot of reps with low-mass weights, was the fitness plan this past offseason.  Madani points out that Lind has been a weak link in the lineup in each of the last three seasons, to which Lind replies that he's had two bad half seasons over the past two years.  Sort of, yeah.
• Lind acknowledges that he could be out of town at the end of the year (or sooner) if he doesn't improve.
• Lind plans on pretending that lefty pitchers are righty pitchers... and just letting everything take care of itself, I guess.
• Arash Madani is certainly not Bob McCown.  Don't confuse that for a compliment.

Finally, Ricky Romero got hit pretty hard against a minor-league version of the Pirates today.  Two innings, and something like 62 pitches, 5 walks and 4 hits.

I'm not sure why this particular spring training start means something, when we all know that no spring training start means anything, but hey, gotta get them pageviews.  In fact, I would submit that this start probably means less than each of his other spring starts, given the widely publicized tweaks to his delivery.

I don't know if everybody expected Romero to just make a little adjustment and start mowing people down, or what, but I mean...  I dunno, you look at a guy like Tiger Woods, who makes a pretty dramatic change in his swing and he sucks (as far as his standards go) for upwards of two years before things get awesome.  Maybe this is something that we shouldn't shit our pants about just because it didn't work out overnight.

Anyway, by the sounds of things, Romero isn't certain to have the 5th starter's job right out of the gate.  It's certainly possible that he stays in Florida with some fake injury or something, but he's also really unlikely to get claimed if the Jays decided that they'd like to send him through waivers to work on some stuff in the minors, given his salary and contract.

I'm probably going to read this Q&A with Alex Anthopoulos now.