Wednesday, 23 May 2012

One Bad Inning

I have no way of backing this up, so it could very well be a selection bias or something, but it seems like a lot of Jays' losses come down to one big inning.  I'm sure the same can be said about a lot of games, but whatever; my statement is more a function of having really young starters who haven't had to worry about working out of jams against big-league lineups as often as other older rotations, and playing in the AL East probably doesn't help a whole lot either.

If you missed it, the Rays entered the 4th inning with a 1-0 lead, only to score 5 runs and blow the game open. Never mind the fact that the Jays scored 4 in the top of the 5th, because this game wasn't ever really close after that, since the bullpen couldn't hold the Rays offense down.

On the bright side, Jose Bautista was 3-for-4 (with another opposite field single to beat the shift!) and a Zaunhead, and Yan Gomes hit his 2nd homerun of the season, putting him 1 shy of Adam Lind after 100-ish fewer plate appearances.

Ricky Romero will go tonight for the Jays, with the hope of getting the Jays a series win in Tampa for the first time since the Rays got good.

JP Breen looks at Luke Scott, probably because he hit a homer off Hutchison last night.

Getting Blanked linked this piece from Over the Monster, where they look at the Red Sox' 2007 draft, which got me to thinking about how that worked out for the Jays.  Well sirs, it's not pretty.  Let's dive in, shall we? (Note: He chose '07 because the average draft class takes 5 full years to develop to the point where you can project who will make it and who won't.)

The '07 Jays draft has produced 7 major leaguers out of 35 players (30 rounds), totaling 3.9 rWAR.  JP Arencibia and Brett Cecil were both sandwich rounders that year, and have accumulated 4.1 of the 3.9WAR of the round (that's not a typo).  Add 5th rounder, Marc Rzepczynski (who has since moved on to St. Louis) who gives another 1.9 WAR, and that goes to show you just how bad everybody else has been, whether or not they`ve made it to the bigs.

Brad Mills (-1.2 WAR), Brad Emaus (-0.6), and Darin Mastroianni (-0.1) have at least made it to the bigs, though all are with other organizations and have been terrible.  Mills was turned in to Jeff Mathis, who is currently backing up JP Arencibia to the tune of 0.4 WAR.  Emaus turned in to Chris Malone, a 28 year old pitcher who appears to have been either released, or became a free agent at the end of last season, and Mastro was selected off waivers by the Twins, getting in to 7 games so far this season.  Frank Gailey, a 23rd rounder, was traded for Ben Francisco this past offseason.

There are still some pieces left toiling in the Jays` minor league system, however.  1st Rounder, Kevin Ahrens, has never reached the bigs, and hasn't made it past high-A yet, at age 23, sandwich rounder Justin Jackson is still in AA and probably won`t make it to the bigs, Trystan Magnusson was recently DFAed, but saw a few games last year for the A`s and Jays.  6th rounder Mike McDade is beating up on AA pitching in his 2nd go-around in New Hampshire, and might see some time in the bigs somewhere along the line.  The only other names I even recognize are Alan Farina and John Tolisano, both of whom are in AA New Hampshire for the 2nd time, and putting up respectable numbers.

I`m excited to look back in a few years to get a good look at AA`s first few drafts, compared to JP Ricciardi, considering AA`s strategy of high school arms and loading up the scouting department vs. JPR`s strategy of taking prep guys, but it really does appear that JPR`s drafting strategy left a lot to be desired, looking at other drafts.  The 2012 draft is coming up in about 2 weeks, so maybe I`ll have a look at a year-by-year analysis going back to the `03 draft or so.

Johnson 2B
Escobar SS
Bautista RF
Encarnacion DH
Arencibia C
Thames LF
Lawrie 3B
Rasmus CF
Gomes 1B

Romero P

Pena 1B
Upton CF
Joyce RF
Sutton 3B
Scott DH
Johnson SS
Rhymes 2B
Gimenez C
Thompson LF

Shields P

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