Sunday 24 February 2013

Reigning, Defending

Sportsnet is showing the '93 World Series, as part of the 19.5th anniversary of the Blue Jays triumph.  I had sort of reviewed the '92 Jays season, so we may as well do the same thing, making use of Fangraphs and Baseball-reference.

  • Big turnover from the '92 World Series team and the '93 one.
    • 12 players from the '92 team that didn't appear in the '93 Series: Derek Bell, Jimmy Key, David Cone, Dave Winfield, Manny Lee, Kelly Gruber, Candy Maldonado, Rance Mulliniks, Pat Tabler, Jack Morris, Tom Henke, and David Wells.
    • The 12 who replaced them: Paul Molitor, Rob Butler, Darnell Coles, Ricky Henderson, Dick Schofield, Dave Stewart, Darnell Coles, Al Leiter, Willy Canate, Tony Castillo, Danny Cox and Pat Hentgen.
  • John Olerud had one king shit of a season in '93, flirting with .400 through mid-August, before finishing with a paltry .288/.412/.432 down the stretch.  Olerud finished the year with a .363/.473/.599 slash line, good for 8.4 WAR.  A batting title, 200 hits, 109 runs, 24 HR's, and a 16.8% walk rate.  I think he came 5th in the MVP race, somehow.
  • Not to be overshadowed by what was arguably the greatest non-Clemens season in Blue Jays history,  Paul Molitor and Roberto Alomar came 2nd and 3rd in the batting race, behind Olerud, batting .332 and .326 respectively.  The combination of those three, along with Devon White, put up 25.4 WAR.  Tony Fernandez contributed 3 WAR over 93 games after being traded for Darrin Jackson.
  • The Jays got little to no production from their bench.  Rob Butler contributed less than a win over 56 AB's, and that was about it.  Shawn Green and Carlos Delgado were September call-ups though.
  • ERA, FIP, and WAR for each starter:
    • Guzman-- 3.99/3.77, 4.5 WAR over 221 innings.
    • Stottlemyre-- 4.84/3.91, 3.2 WAR over 191 innings.*
    • Hentgen-- 3.87/4.61, 2.7WAR over 216 innings.*
    • Morris-- 6.19/4.51, 1.8 WAR over 152 innings. 
    • Dave Stewart-- 4.44/5.06, 1 WAR over 162 innings.
    • Leiter-- 4.11/4.44, 1 WAR over 105 innings, both starting and relieving.
*- Baseball-reference and Fangraphs disagree on pitcher WAR, mainly due to Fangraphs' use of FIP and B-Ref's use of ERA in their calculations.  BR has Hentgen and Guzman both at 3.1 WAR, and Stottlemyre at 0.5 WAR.
  • The Jays got 14.8 WAR from their pitchers in '93, per B-Ref, along with 28.4 from their lineup.  A replacement level team will win 51.84 (32%) of their games.  51.8+28.4+14.8 gives us 95 wins.
  • With Fangraphs, the Jays got 19.8 WAR from their pitchers, and 38.8 WAR from their lineup.  A replacement level team, per fangraphs, wins 42.2 games.  42.2+38.8+19.8 makes 100.8 wins.
  • Joe Carter was apparently really close to going to Kansas City after the '92 season, and ultimately stayed in Toronto for less money than what the Royals were offering him.  Based on his B-Ref page, he signed for 5 years and $31.5MM.  Carter was worth negative B-R value over the course of the deal, and 1.2 fangraphs WAR.

No comments:

Post a Comment