Tuesday, 10 December 2013

An Unordered List of Thoughts Regarding Colby

Bob Elliott is reporting that the Jays are offering Colby Rasmus for pitchers.  Let's get right in to it.

  • As a relatively straight man, I'm not sure if it's weird to point this out, but trading Rasmus will almost certainly make the team more attractive, which is something that they're in desperate need of in the wake of the JP Arencibia non-tender if they would like to contend for the handsomeness Wild Card.  Of course, keeping Rasmus and signing Bartolo Colon should result in an early draft pick in next year's draft, especially with Dioner Navarro in the fold(s?).
  • Joking aside, Rasmus has had one good year in the last three, offensively, and has one year of control left before hitting free agency.  Stoeten at DJF has already pointed out that Rasmus might very well be in line for a big payday, especially with a big 2014.  Jacoby Ellsbury did just sign for $153MM, afterall.
  • Steamer projects Rasmus to be worth 3.3 fWAR, while Oliver projects 3.2fWAR.  Compare that to his 4.8 fWAR total from '13, which was fuelled by a career-best +12.9 runs above average defensively, and a career-best .356 babip.  We can expect those to regress, and that's reflected in the projections, but even those projections have Rasmus being a pretty clearly above average CF.  Certainly wouldn't hurt to hang on to him and get the draft pick after the season, but trading him now boosts his value slightly in that same regard.
    • Just touching on his babip; Rasmus had an elevated rate of liners this past year, and an ever-so-slightly reduced rate of popups, so that elevated babip isn't entirely noise.  It's mostly noise, but guys who are hitting more liners and fewer popups are obviously going to have higher babips.
  • It's definitely tough to say that Anthony Gose can come anywhere near that 3+ WAR area that Rasmus is projected to provide.  In fact, given Gose's offensive struggles, in terms of K's, walks or even contact, Gose's value is tied up pretty much entirely within his defense and baserunning-- both of which have graded negatively to this point in his admittedly very short big league career.  Steamer only projects 40 games and 162 plate appearances for Gose (which probably sounds about right if Rasmus stays), so it's probably best not to use that projection.  Oliver, however, offers their projection over 600 plate appearances, and likes Gose for a .225/.286/.342 line, with slightly above average running and defense.  I dunno, I just don't think Gose is ready, and, in the event of a Rasmus deal, would probably prefer a temporary replacement, rather than Gose everyday if he can't handle it yet.
  • Left-handed power.  Defense.  Premium position.  Hair, sometimes.
  • Ultimately, it depends on what the return would be.  It's pretty easy to sit here and say "I wouldn't trade Rasmus" since he's a known commodity coming off a really good year.  It certainly depends on what's coming back the other way, and obviously we shouldn't be making any harsh judgments on this until we hear the rest of the rumor.

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