Tuesday, 5 June 2012

Jays looking at Garza?

Ken Rosenthal of Fox sports is claiming that the Jays are "sniffing" at the Cubs' Matt Garza.  I'm not sure why he used the word "sniffing", but whatever... knowing the Jays, this probably isn't true.  Having said that, it's a pretty nice fit.  Garza still has a year of team control after this season (he makes $9MM this year, and should make $12-14MM next year in arbitration), so he's definitely an asset that would come at a heavy cost.

The Cubs are looking for prospects, or at least cost-controlled major leaguers.  It would probably cost something like a Gose/Marisnick as a centerpiece, and then some kind of pitcher like Alvarez or one of the 2010 picks like Syndergaard, Nicolino, Sanchez, etc., and then some minor housekeeping items to finish the deal off.

There's obviously something to be said about the utility of having a guy like Garza in the rotation instead of Alvarez (or Drabek, or whoever, depending on who goes the other way), since Garza would pretty much automatically become the best pitcher in the Jays rotation. The difference between three good pitchers in the rotation and two is obviously pretty huge in this division, no matter how hilarious Garza is at anything that isn't pitching (i.e. throwing the ball to first base, or not looking like a douche).

I think we can all agree that, assuming this trade goes down, missing the playoffs (or wildcard-offs?) wouldn't be a complete disaster, since Garza still has another year to go before hitting free agency, even if he's going to be expensive next year.  He was worth 5.0 fWAR last year (2.5 rWAR), and he's only 28, so he can still definitely help until AA decides what he wants to do with all the minor league arms; they won't all be ready to contribute next season, and if, by 2014, he's got a full rotation's worth of arms ready to, Garza will be a free agent, and there's a pretty good shot that he doesn't accept any kind of 1-year qualifying offer to score the Jays a draft pick, or whatever the fuck happens now.

I can't help but think that, since the media is on to it, that this just won't happen.  I don't know who the "rival executive" is that Rosenthal mentions, and it's always possible that the leak is someone from the Cubs' end, but I don't suppose we can remember any situations in which the Jays made a trade that we were all ready for due to media leaks.

There are other options out there: Zach Greinke and Shaun Marcum of the Brewers (6.5 games back, 4th place in the NL Central), Brandon McCarthy of the A's (8 games back in the ALW, have both LAA and TEX to catch), any number of D'Backs pitchers if they don't turn it around (Cahill, Kennedy), or, if we can get a little crazy... Felix?  Hamels?

For the record, I think Garza is the only one who's really available right now, which is probably why we're seeing this largely hypothetical piece being written at this point in time.

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