My Brain is Itchy

Ladies and Gentlebeans, call me confused.

I really thought that we were going to see something else happen this afternoon.  Something that would give us more.  The Edwin extension gave us confirmation that this wasn't going to be a sellfest, which wouldn't have been the biggest fuck-up in the world, given the rotation situation, but either way...

So here I am, all of a sudden, thinking we're going to see AA use his glut of prospects.  You know, the prospects that I've been saying all along that he won't be trading?  Yeah, those ones.  Except he went and got JA Happ and relief help, giving up prospects in return.  Suddenly, I'm reconsidering.

Then AA moves Travis Snider for not that much in return, and then moves Eric Thames for good measure, creating a hole in the outfield.  Because Anthony Gose.

I dunno.  I guess what I'm trying to say here is that I expected the "sell" part of this to be some less useful parts, instead of a 24-year old who hasn't gotten a full season's worth of a chance yet.  Kelly Johnson hasn't been worth a fuck for several weeks now, and the rotation isn't good enough to compete for a playoff spot.  I'm not saying that we need to go balls out to rent players just to get to the wild-card play-in, it's just kinda fucked to use Snider as your sell-piece when you're not selling, I guess. I mean, I realize the rationale behind getting more relief: if you can't upgrade the rotation, you may as well try and build a kick-ass bullpen?

Like I said, I have an itchy brain about this whole thing at the moment.  I'm just kind of lost at the lack of another trade coming on the heels of what happened last night, though apparently the Jays were discussing deals that just didn't quite hit the finish line.  The team needs more pitching, and could probably use another bat, either at 2B or DH.  I know this stuff doesn't exactly grow on trees, but my train of thought is that if we're not buying, we should be selling.  That means Oliver and Johnson should be gone right now.

So yeah, brain-itch.

In other news, Travis Snider is batting 2nd for Pittsburgh tonight.  Now my brain is crying, too.

Stuff
Moises Sierra has been called up for his spin in the revolving door that is the third outfield spot.  Someone mentioned a Nelson Cruz comparison, which uhhh... why was he playing in AAA then?  He was already on the 40-man, but will be making his MLB Debut tonight, playing RF and batting 9th.

Brandon Morrow threw 3 innings last night, allowing 3 hits and walking 1, while striking out two.  He was only scheduled to throw 2 innings, but for some reason they just said "fuck it" and stuffed him out there for a third.  I presume this was done as a means of "hey, maybe we can stretch him out a little further for when he comes back" kind of thing.  I dunno.

There were a few trades today: Shane Victorino went to LAD, Hunter Pence went to the Giants, Jonathan Broxton went to Cincinatti, and Ryan Dempster went to Texas.  There were a few other minor ones that you can keep up with on MLBTR, but fuck writing them all out.

Speaking of minor deals, The Jays acquired minor league catcher Tuffy Gosewich from Philadelphia for cash.  That's purely a depth move, as ole Tuffy if hitting like .192/.241/.310 in AAA as a 28 year old.

Lineups
Jays
Lawrie 3B
Rasmus CF
Edwin 1B
Cooper DH
Escobar SS
Johnson 2B
Davis LF
Mathis C
Sierra RF

Laffey P

Mariners
Ackley 2B
Wells RF
Saunders CF
Montero DH
Seager 3B
Carp 1B
Olivo C
Robinson LF
Ryan SS

Vargas P

Snider and Thames Both Traded

Pfffft, just kidding.  No, but really, definitely traded.

I'm not even going to begin that I'm unbiased enough to analyze this one, because I'm seriously pretty bummed about this one, so I'll let Eno Sarris of Fangraphs do so for me.  Like most trades of this nature, it depends. Clearly, The Jays believe that Snider isn't the guy that they thought he was going to be when he was the 6th ranked prospect (or something like that).  Still, Snider has never played more than 84 MLB games in a season without either getting injured or demoted, so who the fuck knows?

For his part this season, Snider has hit .235/.270/.559 in the majors since getting called up, which includes 3 HR's (all against lefties).  In return, the Jays will get Brad Lincoln, a reliever (?) who didn't have a weird service clock manipulation, and will be under team control until 2018.  He's both started and relieved for the Pirates in each of the last three years.  He's got a 2.73 ERA, 3.57 FIP and 3.45 xFIP this year over 60 innings.  His K% is way up this year, and his BB% is down slightly, so that looks pretty good, I guess.

Farrell's comments after last night's game suggest that Lincoln will be heading for the bullpen, which suddenly isn't full of a bunch of minor leaguers and AAAA guys.  If you can't get starters, then I guess the next best option is to stock up the bullpen.  Again. For third time in the last two years.  Still, Snider, the future savior, for a reliever...  I dunno.  I'm kind of hoping that they stretch him out next year and try him out of the rotation the way they did with Morrow.

As for Thames, meh.  I kind of feel like I predicted that Thames would go to Seattle during this past offseason, but it's not a big deal.  Thames is pretty much an all-or-nothing bat with no on-base skills and little to contribute defensively.  In return, the Jays get reliever Steve Delabar, a 6'5' fireballer who is striking out 11.3/9IP.  This is his first full season in the majors, and he just turned 29.  Not exactly encouraging, but this is mostly poop for poop.  If you think Delabar is actually something, look up his home/road splits.

With both Snider and Thames being moved, and Bautista still on the disabled list for another few days, the Jays currently have an outfield consisting of Colby Rasmus, Rajai Davis, and Anthony Gose.  Doesn't quite look right, does it?  Especially now that Rasmus' bat isn't quite on fire anymore, Davis has returned to being Davis, and Anthony Gose is a raw 21-year old who can really only contribute defensively right now.  I'm pretty disappointed that I have to work today, because I feel like there's another trade on the way.

The Jays are linked to Matt Garza, but apparently kind of need an outfielder now too, assuming they still think that they're buyers at this deadline.  Shane Victorino, Alfonso Soriano, Shin-Soo Choo and Hunter Pence are all apparently available, to varying degrees.  I actually think Pence-to-Toronto kind of works, assuming he's okay playing in LF.

What Happened to Hendy?

So Alvarez is suddenly good, eh?  No complaints here.  Have a Zaunhead.

Other than that, I'm just too hung over for this.  Go for the sweep boys.

Stuff
Ken Rosenthal, via MLBTR, reports that Bud Norris could be available in a trade, and that the Blue Jays would be interested.  I would be interested in the Blue Jays being interested.

Jose Bautista is swinging a bat, and is getting closer to coming back.

Brandon Morrow's first rehab start is today.  He'll throw two innings in Single-A, and will throw one more before moving up to AA New Hampshire for two starts.  They want to stretch him out to about 85 pitches before having him up.  If he only does 4 rehab starts, August 18th-ish is where the schedule would have him returning.

And finally, the Orioles called up Lew Ford to play LF today.  Awesome.  Ford was a 4WAR player in his first full year, but was out of the league three years later, and hasn't played in the majors since 2007.

Lineups
Blue Jays
Davis DH (?)
Rasmus CF
Lawrie 3B
Edwin 1B
Snider LF
Escobar SS
Johnson 2B
Mathis! C
Gose RF

Cecil

Tigers
Jackson CF
Infante 2B
Cabrera 3B
Fielder 1B
Young DH
Raburn LF
Peralta SS
Boesch RF
Laird C

Fister P

MOAR MATHIS

That's the boy, Jeff.

Source: FanGraphs

Simply as a circumstance of having the bases loaded, Jeff Mathis provided the Jays with a +.275 WPA yesterday, good for the Zaunhead of the day.  He'll also sit today.  Beyond that, we got a tater out of Snider, off a lefty at that, and a decent, albeit short, outing out of CharlieV, the backup backup (backup?) ace.  I'm also somewhat partial to Omar Vizquel going like 7 years between extra-base hits, but then getting two in yesterday's game.

I'm a bit curious about the bullpen management, which isn't exactly a surprise these days.  Basically the roles we're seeing lately put Janssen, Oliver and Lyon in the important innings, and then whoever else is sticking around in the middle relief, mopup, and lefty specialist duties.  By the time the game hit the 9th inning, the Jays had a 6-3 lead, which is a save situation, so I realize that Janssen should be warming up.  Once that lead stretches to 5, however, wouldn't it be prudent to sit Janssen, who had pitched the day before, in favor of someone else?  Lyon, Oliver and Janssen have all pitched on back-to-back days now, which could lead to some kind of hilarious closer-by-committee scenario that I'm sure nobody wants to see.

Anyway, it's not a huge deal, as at least one of those three should find themselves a day off today, and even if they don't, it's just one game.

Stuff
The Angels acquired Zack Greinke last night, in exchange for a package of prospects, headlined by Jean Segura, a highly touted shortstop.  That rotation now includes Weaver, Greinke, Haren, Wilson and Santana, though Haren and Santana haven't been great this year.  Still, that's a mighty rotation, and this is a strong team that will almost guarantee themselves a wildcard berth now.  They're 4 games back of Texas for the AL West lead with plenty of time left, though I'm sure Texas is going to go find themselves a Josh Johnson or James Shields type as a rebuttal.

The Giants acquired some infield help in Marco Scutaro, making my wet dream of getting Brandon Belt a little less realistic.  Scutaro will probably fill in for Pablo Sandoval at third until he's back, and then take over at either 2B or SS for Ryan Theriot or Brandon Crawford, respectively.  Nice deal.

Adam Lind was a late scratch last night with a being out of shape back issues, and will miss today's game as well.  Yan Gomes is the replacement.  Yunel Escobar will be back in the lineup today, after missing the last two games, also with back problems.

I hadn't noticed when it happened, but when JPA was placed on the DL (6 weeks, fractured hand) the other day, the Jays also sent Chad Beck to AAA, and recalled both Evan Crawford and Joel Carreno to fill out the bullpen.

Lineups
Jays
Davis RF
Rasmus DH
Lawrie 3B
Edwin 1B
Snider LF
Escobar SS
Johnson 2B
Gomes C
Gose CF

Alvarez P

Tigers
Jackson CF
Berry LF
Cabrera 3B
Fielder 1B
Young DH
Boesch RF
Peralta SS
Avila C
Infante 2B

Sanchez P

The Mathis Era Begins

Man, are you guys watching this Olympic opening thingy?  Not for me.  The Olympics themselves are going to be fucking fantastic, even without baseball (though that's what the MLB season is for, I suppose).  This flash game is more my speed, though I think I played it too much, as my right eye doesn't seem to want to completely function.

Anyway, yeah.  Mathis.  Starting catcher for  the foreseeable future.  His era is now, which makes the Aaron Laffey era the shortest in the history of eras.  Seriously, there have been like 9 eras this year.

Edwin will get another Zaunhead for his game yesterday, and uhh, Mathis for Wednesday.  Christ.  Mathis got on base twice aaaaand pitched an inning of mopup, which got him a -.003 WPA.  Ha.

The Tigers are in town for the weekend, and we've successfully managed to avoid Justin Verlander on this trip. I fucking dare you to no-hit us now, you jackass.

Stuff
Nothing much in terms of Jays rumors today.  Yunel Escobar is still apparently a trade option, but has a bad attitude!  MLBTR also says that today is the 1-year anniversary of the Colby Rasmus trade.

John Farrell told reporters that Jose Bautista isn't swinging a bat yet.

Brandon Morrow threw a BP session last night, and is on track to rehab at single-A on Sunday

Lineups
Jays
Lawrie 3B
Rasmus CF
Edwin 1B
Lind DH
Escobar SS
Snider LF
Johnson 2B
Mathis C
Gose RF


Charlie P


Tigers
Jackson CF
Berry LF
Cabrera 3B.
Fielder 1B
Young DH
Boesch RF
Peralta SS
Avila C
Infante 2B


Porcello P

Afternoon Game?!?

Fuuuuuck.

I saw a guy with a Troy Glaus Shirsey today.

He was at Home Hardware.  Buying some kind of leak sealant, which may or may not be fitting, due to Glaus' skeptical defense.

Sourceless Stuff
Go to MLBTR if you want the extended version of this.

Hanley Ramirez was traded to the Dodgers late last night, which should (hopefully) quash any Ramirez-to-the-Jays nonsense on my twitter feed.  The A's were interested, but couldn't get a deal done.  They might now look to Stephen Drew or Yunel Escobar, if either is available.

Related, apparently the Jays are looking to move Yunel Escobar.  I dunno how fussy I am about this one, though I guess Adeiny Hechavarria can't be a whole lot different, considering Yunel's batting line so far this year.  His defense has been pretty good, and from a WAR standpoint, Ramirez would be an expensive downgrade, and he's probably not best suited to be a SS/3B for much longer.

Cole Hamels signed an extension with the Phillies today.  7 years, $144MM with an option and a buyout.  So yeah, he won't be coming to Toronto either.

Jayson Stark doesn't think Josh Johnson will be traded this season.

Joe Blanton is fairly sure to be moved, as is Francisco Liriano.  Randy Wolf is available for nothing to a team willing to pay his salary.

Joel Sherman thinks the Jays would like to move Yunel, and are interested in Jose Reyes, who only has 5 years left on his deal so he wouldn't be off-limits to the Jays is probably an idiot.

Hold you pants this next week, my friends.  It's going to get wild.

Last night's Zaunhead goes to Travis Snider, though JPA and Cecil definitely get honorable mentions.  JA Happ is not making a good first impression, but the guy isn't exactly used to coming out of the bullpen in to a runners-on-base situation, nor should he have been left in as long as he was, so... John Farrell.

Yay

Joyous occasion!  A sweep against those Red Idiots.  The Jays have won three in a row, and without the help of their starting Right Fielder, whoever that guy is. Travis Snider gets his first Zaunhead of the year.

Meanwhile, the Jays are at home, taking on the red hot A's.  Billy Beane has gotten so much out of a team that was supposed to be so bad.  Don't forget AA, Billy is the original ninja.

Brett Cecil tonight.  More importantly, we finally get to see Yoenis Cespedes.  A's starter, Travis Blackley, is left-handed, which means Rajai Davis and not Anthony Gose.  Think AA and Farrell would like to revise their statement about Gose and Snider being in a competition?  Stoeten tackled this at DJF yesterday.

What else?  Oh right, trades.  Sweet, sweet trades.  My heavens I like the trades.  In case you missed:

In the day's biggest news, since the Yankees were involved, which automatically breaks the internet, Ichiro was moved to the Yankees for absolutely nothing.  Ichiro sucks now, though, so that's no big surprise.

Ryan Dempster was rumored to be on the move to Atlanta, but he hasn't approved the deal yet, thanks to his no-trade clause (10-and-5 rights, more accurately).

Lastlly, because it kind of ties in with more stuff that I wanted to touch on without having a massive tangent away from trade talk, only to come back to those trades listed above (*deep breath*), the Tigers broke my heart, dishing pitching prospect Jacob Turner to Miami, in exchange for Anibal Sanchez and Omar Infante.  I saw that they broke my heart, because I was really hoping that they'd send Turner our way in exchange for Kelly Johnson.

This, of course, shows us that the Marlins are giving up on this season, and are selling off a bunch of pieces.  I can't wait to see what they're going to do this offseason, but it's probably going to include equal parts of "not enough" and "what the fuck are you doing?!?", not unlike this past winter.  Look for them to make an offer to Cole Hamels and/or Zack Greinke, if either makes it that far.

Anyway, like I was saying before I hit that very tangent that I was looking to avoid, the Marlins are apparently willing to move pretty much any non-Stanton and non-Reyes piece (and probably won't move Mark Buehrle either).  Oddly enough, I hint-hint'ed at Josh Johnson the other day, and wouldn't you know it,  the Jays are interested in Josh Johnson.  Son of a bitch, I'm good.

The Jays are also said to be interested in Hanley Ramirez, hopefully as a "buy-low" candidate.  Like, really low, please.  Ramirez has been worth 2.7 fWAR (0.4 rWAR) over the last season and a half, and has wOBA's of .317 and .330 in those seasons.  Not exactly what dreams are made of when we're talking about a guy with suspect defense ~$38.5MM left on his contract, especially when he will soon need to be moved to a corner outfield spot.  So yeah, it's not like he can replace Yunel Escobar if a trade happens there, Hanley is more of a might-not-be-that-good-anymore option, instead of an upgrade.

Okay, go watch your game.

Lineups
Jays
Lawrie 3B
Rasmus CF
Edwin 1B
Lind DH
JPA C
Johnson 2B
Escobar SS
Snider LF
Davis RF

Cecil P

A's
Crisp CF
Gomes DH
Reddick RF
Cespedes LF
Carter 1B
Inge 3B
Norris C
Hicks SS
Weeks 2B

Blackley P

Brooms?

The Red Sox have Ellsbury and Crawford back, watch out because they're good again!  Right?  Let's goooooooo.

Edwin had two walks and a tater, good for a Zaunhead, which actually reminds me that I haven't dished out Zaunheads for like a week, the last one going to CharlieV for his start this past sunday.  More on that in a second.

For now, we're going to focus all of our energy on making Henderson Alvarez good.  Ole Hendy-poo struck out 6 (SIX!) Yankees in his last outing, giving him two pretty decent outings in his last three starts.  The other was a bit of a stinker, in which he gave up 5 runs in 5.1IP against the Royals, so heh.  It is what it is.

This will be his fourth start against the Red Sox this season.  His first was a no-decision, but was good.  6IP, 4 hits, 1 ER, 1BB, 2K.  he then went 6.1IP on June 1, giving up 8 hits and 4 runs, 1BB, 2K's in a Jays loss.  Finally, on June 25th, Hendy went 5 IP, allowing 5 runs (3 earned) on 6 hits, 1 walk and 2K's.  Basically, don't expect him to walk or strike out very many.

Stuff
Retroactive Zaunheads: Aaron Laffey for Friday, JPA for Wednesday's rain-shortened beating, Edwin for Tuesday, and Edwin for Monday.  In case you were wondering, Edwin has proven to be good at hitting lately.

Elsewhere, Jonah Keri gets worked up about the 10-man trade from the other day, over at Grantland.

Jim Callis of Baseball America has some words about the draft bonuses.  Within, Callis says that the Jays came within $341 of losing their 2013 first-rounder.  Loopholes.

Brandon Morrow threw a 42-pitch bullpen session yesterday, without issue, according to Barry Davis.  He'll throw live BP on Tuesday, and will then probably need a few rehab starts.  Assuming 4 rehab appearances to stretch back out, Saturday the 28th?  That's just me spitballing, but it at least gives us some kind of idea about when he might maybe be back.

JPA is DHing and batting 5th today, with Lind and Gose both sitting out against the lefty.  JP's on-base skills obviously leave something to be desired, which gives me doubts about him batting 5th, but looking at his splits, his career line vs. LHP is 232/.281/.484, good for a .325 wOBA (103 wRC+).  Not bad for a catcher, I suppose.  2012 shows .229/.270/.500 against lefties.  A .500 SLG is stuff Prince Fielder and Paul Konerko are made of, though that includes pitchers of both arms.  I dunno, rose-colored glasses I suppose.  


Speaking of rose-colored glasses, The Red Sox have Nick Punto playing 3B today.  Not Kevin Youkilis, not Marco Scutaro, and not Will Middlebrooks.  Could be worse.


Finally, the Mets have DFA'ed Miguel Batista.  I say this because the Jays had signed Jamie Moyer earlier this season.  Can't hurt, right?


Lineups
Jays
Lawrie 3B
Escobar SS
Rasmus CF
Edwin 1B
JPA DH
Davis RF
Snider LF
Mathis C
Vizquel 2B

Alvarez P

Red Sox
Ellsbury CF
Nava LF
Pedroia 2B
Gonzalez 1B
Ross DH
Saltalamacchia C
Sweeney RF
Aviles SS
Punto 3B

Lester P

Justin Morneau is from Canada!

Sports Illustrated (Fan Nation, more accurately) reports that Justin Morneau is available as a trade candidate.  Justin Morneau is from Canada.  The Toronto Blue Jays are from Canada.  Natural fit!  Let's nip this one in the bud, shall we?

This isn't really a caveat to a Morneau trade or anything, but Adam Lind is going to keep getting chances at 1B/DH, whether we like it or not.  I'm not even sure that AA is trying to swing a deal for Lind, given the way the Edwin stuff worked out for him over the last year and change, or the potential bargain of a contract that Lind has ($2MM left this year, $5MM next year, plus a bevy of options and buyouts) if he ever returns to even a league-average offensive producer.  AA probably wants to be absolutely certain that Lind doesn't have anything to provide before giving up on him entirely, considering the way he's played since his recall, especially if Aaron Hill is any indication (that's a pretty different story though).

To add to that, Jose Bautista is probably pretty close to joining Lind and Edwin Encarnacion as 1B/DH types.  I'm not going to pretend that I know much (anything) about what defensive metrics say about a player beyond the +/- madness, but Bautista just isn't all that good defensively, no matter what his arm may suggest.  Beyond that, if Anthony Gose does happen to force his way on to the team, the natural play would be to move Bautista to 1B (or DH, if they want Edwin at 1B) and to jettison Lind.  All of this is a way of saying that there might not be room for Morneau as a 1B/DH, even if Lind doesn't stick around.

Having too many assets isn't exactly a problem, so the above could easily be worked around for the right player... I just don't think Morneau is the right player.  A few red flags:

• Morneau has about $20MM left on his contract ($~6MM left this year, $14MM next year), and hasn't managed to avoid the DL for a full season since 2008.  Obviously the concussion issue that has cost him so much time over the last few years isn't something that we can just point to and say "he's injury prone!" because it was kind of a freak thing, but still, his production has dipped big-time since then, and it's probably not a coincidence.
• As a 31 year old, he's past his prime, even if he does return to form somewhat.
• His .249/.312/.432 batting line, adjusted for league and park, is pretty much league average (99 WRC+).  Given that "league average" includes all positions (i.e. light-hitting, defense-premium spots like CF, SS, and C), Morneau is pretty significantly below average as a 1B/DH, and is scarcely worth the $14MM/yr price tag, even without the injury concerns.

Naturally, if the Twins are just going to fuck off and die for the next season or two, they should sell off a bunch of their players in order to obtain prospects so that they can reduce costs while they suck, or at least have something to look forward to.  They'd probably like to move Joe Mauer out from behind the plate over to 1B so as to keep him healthy long-term, but beyond that, practically everybody should be available.  Any deal involving Morneau would involve a (some) non-1B prospect(s) coming back the other way (so don't even get me started about a Lind-for-Morneau trade), with the relative awesomeness or amount of said prospect(s) varying with the amount of money the Twins decide to eat;

• If the Jays take the whole contract, the Twins can have salary relief little more than an organizational filler of a prospect. 
• If the Twins eat the whole contract, the Jays will have to part with some sort of useful piece(s).

The problem with either scenario is that the Jays aren't going to part with significant prospects (or agree to take on an extra $15MM+) without guaranteeing themselves an upgrade over what they have. And that's the thing about Morneau... he's not a significant upgrade over Lind, especially with the injury concerns.  Like Lind, he doesn't really hit lefties very well (anymore, anyway): despite a career .314 wOBA v. LHP he has a .183 wOBA v. LHP in both 2011 and 2012. His ability to hit lefties was something that really separated him from other LHB 1B's during his peak years (those 2011 and 2012 numbers are dealing with some pretty small sample sizes, by the way).  He handles RHP just fine (.380 career wOBA, .388 in 2012, .319 in 2011, .467 2010), but uhh... well, Adam Lind's numbers vs. RHP: .356 career wOBA v. RHP, .330 in 2012, .328 in 2011, .356 in 2010, .418 in 2009.  Lind costs about 40% as much as Morneau, and despite being terrible, he can be relied upon to play pretty much everyday if asked, which definitely has some value*.

Basically what I'm saying here is that as frustrating as Adam Lind is to watch, the production that Morneau would provide really wouldn't be a big upgrade over Lind's bat, and we already have Lind (as in: we don't have to give anything up to get Lind's glorified platoonsmanship in to the lineup).  Lind's ZiPS ROS (rest-of-season) projections give him .259/.314/.454, which is good for about 0.5 WAR (54 games), depending on how much he plays which position.  Morneau's ZiPS ROS: .263/.335/.444, good for 0.7 WAR (45 games)*.

Obviously getting away from Target Field would be nice for Morneau, and people talk about trades rejuvenating careers all the time, so who the fuck knows?  The point remains, however, that Morneau really isn't all that good anymore, and given the amount he plays, probably wouldn't provide much more than half a win over Lind on an ambitious scale.


If the Jays decide that they want to give up on Lind (and that's exactly what they would be doing here), and can get a hefty discount on the contract, then sure, I'd be up for the risk.  He's been historically pretty good defensively, and we've all seen that he can put up some MVP numbers, but 2009 is a long time (and a major, major concussion ago).  We just saw J.A. Happ and two relievers fetch some fringy prospects, so who knows what an expensive, damaged Justin Morneau could be had for?  I'm sure Minnesota would eat some cash in order to improve their prospect haul, since they've done a pretty embarrassing job of drafting and developing in the last few years.  The Jays have plenty of depth in their minor league system, and it's not like it would cost them a Norris or a Nicolino or a Sanchez to get the job done.  Still, I think there are better spots that the Jays can find to use their prospect depth than to load up on another 1B, especially considering the pitching situation.


*: That value comes from needing to play a replacement level player for those extra 9 games.  Morneau is certainly better than Lind, but there is a give-and-take.  You can have Morneau 45 times and [replacement player] 23 times, or you can have Lind 54 times, and [replacement player] 14 times.  Morneau's higher ROS wOBA is diminished by the fact that he can only provide that value 45 times in the next 68 games.

Fast Snider and Trade Stuff

No time for imagery.

Sportsnet has an AA interview with Wilner and Dirk.

Keith Law has his take on the trade.  More specifically, he talks about the prospects that the Jays threw in.  It's not that pretty, which kind of explains why they were moved, I suppose.

Not to be outdone, Kevin Goldstein trade analysis, with bonus "Guthrie-for-Sanchez" content.

Barry Davis says that Jose Bautista is feeling a lot better, which is good news, I guess.  Not like it really matters though, assuming he was never going to be out for more than the 15 days.

Happ to the bullpen, Carpenter to AAA.  Snider will bat 8th, naturally.  Lawrie will sit out tonight, and Rajai Davis has been relegated to the bench.  Of course, this game is in Boston, so ZZZZZZZZZZZZZ.  Still, Gose/Rasmus/Snider in the outfield.  *Swoon*.

Lineups
Jays
Gose RF
Rasmus CF
Edwin 1B
Lind DH
JPA C
Johnson 2B
Escobar SS
Snider LF
Gomes 3B

Laffey P

Red Idiots
Ellsbury CF
Crawford LF
Pedroia 2B
Gonzalez 1B
Ross RF
Middlebrooks 3B
Shoppach C
Aviles SS
Ciriaco DH

 

Coco's Is No More

... than a piece in a weird trade thing.

The Jays have acquired the services of J.A. Happ (who was nearly included in the Roy Halladay deal), Brandon Lyon, and David Carpenter from the Astros for Francisco Cordero, Ben Francisco, and prospects Joe Musgrove, Asher Wojo-something, David Rollins, Carlos Perez, and a player to be named.  Color me interested, simply if it means getting rid of Coco.

Let's get started.

• Happ is a tall lefty, who has started 18 games for the Astros this year.  He has some decent peripheral numbers (8.5k/9, 3.4bb/9) to go along with a few ugly numbers (1.5 HR/9, which could be attributed to the hitter-friendly confines of Minute Maid Park) and a 4.83/4.45/3.94 ERA/FIP/xFIP  He had a nice rookie year with the Phillies in 2009, but has been decidedly below average for his whole career.  Still, the Jays need a starter or two, and you take what you can get, I guess.  He was traded to Houston from Philly, with Anthony Gose (!) for Roy Oswalt.  He makes $2.35MM this year and will be arbitration eligible for each of the next two seasons, though he's got non-tender written all over him.

• Lyon was drafted by the Jays in the 14th round of the 1999 draft, and appeared in 25 games for the Jays in 2001 and 2002 before being shipped off to Boston on a waiver claim.  He's 32 years old, and is a halfway decent relief option for the Jays at the moment.  He's been a closer before, so I'm sure we're going to have a new least favorite reliever soon.  He's suppressed HR's in Houston, which is nice, and has performed to a 3.25/3.28 ERA/FIP so far this year, despite a .330 babip, striking out almost a batter an inning.  He's making the rest of $5.5MM (in the last year of a 3 year deal) before becoming a free agent at the end of the year.

• Carpenter is a 27 year old reliever who has split time between AAA and MLB.  He has not been good in the majors this year, over 30 appearances, with a WHIP of almost 2 over 29.1 innings.  He'll make the league minimum until 2015, and is controllable until 2018.

As for what the Jays are giving up:

• Francisco Cordero has pretty terrible this year, as many of us predicted.  He started off the year pretty horrifically, taking over as closer for the injured Sergio Santos, but he still got to pitch in high-leverage spots for some reason up until recently.  He's essentially a washed up closer, but you already knew that.  Fuck him.
• Ben Francisco was acquired from Philadelphia for a 25 year old A-ball pitcher this offseason, and has gotten 54 PA's in a bench role.  He makes the rest of $1.54MM, and will probably be non-tendered after the season.
• Joe Musgrove was drafted in the sandwich round in 2011, and has some decent numbers in the Appalachian and Gulf Coast (rookie) Leagues over the last year and a bit.
• Wojciechowski was taken in the sandwich round in 2010, and has some reasonable stats in high-A ball this year, albeit in his second go-around at the league.
• Perez is a 21 year old catcher, playing in A-ball for the second time, with an OPS over .800.
• Rollins is 22, and has dominated the minors so far over 113 pro innings pitched.  He holds a 2.46 ERA, and has struck out 8.3/9IP across three leagues.
• PTBNL's are typically people who were drafted in the most recent draft, who can't be traded for 6 months after initially signing.

So yeah.  Fangraphs lists Wojo as the Jays 13th best prospect (as of this past January), so I don't really think the Jays appear to be giving up a whole lot, and they aren't really getting a whole lot either.  The obvious positives include getting Coco the hell away from John Farrell, and getting a pretty reliable relief option in exchange, in Lyon.  The Jays didn't give up anything overly special (at least I don't think so; we'll know more from the prospect guys soon, I'm sure) in this one, and moving Francisco will (hopefully) open up a spot on the bench for Rajai Davis, which, in turn, will open up an everyday LF spot for Travis Snider.  Happ has got to be a better option than what's-his-face or that other guy in terms of emergency starters, even if he gets non-tendered at the end of the year.

Trade season is upon us!

Could It Be?

This is such big news that I had to get up really, really early and write about it.  Well, not really.  I'm always up this early, and I'm not really sure why.  I wake up at about 7 every morning like clockwork.  Assuming I'm not getting ready for work, I could probably do shit like go for a run, or hit the gym, or pretty much anything productive, but instead, I typically just sit on the couch and set my fantasy lineups.  Which brings me to my main point, actually.

Maybe, just maybe, we can finally take Travis Snider off of the bench, and plug him in to the everyday "OF" slot on our fantasy teams.  Shi Davidi of Sportsnet reported last night that Snider was pinch-hit for in his 2nd AB of a bat-around inning in Las Vegas last night, and has apparently been sent to join the team in Boston!!!  Exclamation marks!

Nothing has been officially announced yet, but I certainly can't think of a reason as to why this would happen other than this being the much-awaited return of the Amazing Sniderman, which sounds like a photoshopportunity.

Snider had been enjoying a little mini-hot streak in Vegas, on the heels of a 4-for-5 night in which he hit 2 HR's and knocked in 6, he homered in his first AB last night as well, before being yanked from Thursday's game.  The former 6th ranked prospect in baseball is hitting .332/.420/.582 over 245 plate appearances for the 51's this summer, which, as always, is less impressive than it looks, since Las Vegas is an offensive haven, and Snider has about 800 career plate appearances in that particular league over parts of 4 seasons.  Snider's recent offensive outburst has gotten his OPS over 1.000 on the year, which may or may not be a coincidence.  Alex Anthopoulos suggested recently that they (the organization, I suppose) were pleased with Snider's work and progress, but weren't ready to bring him up yet because he hadn't gotten hot yet to this point in the year, which explained the Anthony Gose call-up, I guess?

We're going to have to wait to see what's up here, as Anthony Gose was just called up to replace Jose Bautista in RF, when Bautista hit the DL with a wrist issue, and Yan Gomes was called up as an insurance policy, just in case Brett Lawrie isn't good to go tonight against the Red Sox, after smashing his ankle in New York on Wednesday.  Snider obviously can't be of much use at 3B, unless the plan to get Snider in the lineup is to have him play 1B and let Edwin play 3B, but I think the more sane of us can safely assume that Snider will be playing everyday in the outfield, and that the Rajai Davis experiment is over with.

Davis came pretty close to establishing some trade value during his little stint as a starter, peaking on June 24, with a .282/.343/.450 line, but has since dropped to .245/.298/.380 in the 4 weeks since then.  Rajai Davis is who we thought Rajai Davis is (and we let him off the hook).  I really think the Jays were trying to showcase Davis as something he isn't while he was actually hitting well, but losing 100 points off of his OPS in a month doesn't exactly do wonders for that,so it's time to hit the pine, Raj.

Our alternative, my friends, is something that we've been waiting for for about a year. It's a celebration, bitches.

Trade Deadline Wishlist Item: Brandon Belt

Yeah fellas, I know.  Pipe dreams and whatnot.  But let's let our imaginations run wild a second, shall we?

I'm not going to go out and assume that Belt is available or anything, but hey, AA has surprised us before, right?  And if he were going to surprise us again, this would be a nice place to start.

Let's remember back to AA's first surprising-ish trade (that I can think of, anyway), when he acquired Yunel Escobar (and Jojo Reyes) from Atlanta for Alex Gonzalez and prospects Tim Collins and Tyler Pastornicky. Escobar had fallen out of favor in Atlanta in 2010, despite being worth 4 WAR in 2009, due to a "flamboyant approach to the game" that "infuriated some members of the Braves organization".  Fast forward to last season, when the Jays acquired Colby Rasmus, Mark Teahen and a bunch of useless relievers in a big convoluted deal that saw 8 players and some cash change teams.  We saw similar reports about Rasmus as we did about Escobar having attitude issues and whatnot.


While I don't think we've heard anything like that about Belt, we don't know that he isn't frustrated (not that it matters) with his lack of playing time, nor do we know why a 24-year old with a .356 OBP is on pace for fewer than 500 PA's.  


For those unfamiliar, we can liken the Belt situation of last year to the Travis Snider situation of this year; "why isn't Brandon Belt up?" "When is Brandon Belt coming up?" "Free Brandon Belt." I dunno, man.  With a .291/.436/.535 line (slightly worse than Travis Snider, despite this being Snider's 4th chance at the league) over 62 AAA games, I'd kind of be wondering the same.  Instead, the Giants opted for mostly Aubrey Huff, though Belt got time in RF.


Beyond playing Huff (.246/.307/.370) at 1B over Belt last year (and early this year), this year, the Giants don't really like sitting Buster Posey a whole lot, opting instead to move him from C to 1B on his semi-days off.  Instead of having Posey push Belt back to the outfield, they just send him to the bench, giving Belt's AB's to Hector Sanchez, keeping the Melky Cabrera/Angel Pagan/Gregor Blanco outfield in tact.  A pile of stats:


Hector Sanchez: .281/.286/.383 batting line, career 78 wRC+, 2012 76 wRC+. 
Gregor Blanco: .246/.346/.470 batting line, career 95 wRC+, 2012 106 wRC+.
Brandon Belt: .246/.356/.402 batting line, career 106 wRC+, 2012 112 wRC+.
Angel Pagan: .287/.332/.407 batting line, career 104 wRC+, 2012 106 wRC+.


Belt's clearly the best hitter among those four right, and nobody would take Belt out of the order while leaving three worse offensive options in the order? Well, slow yourself:

I asked Bochy if Sanchez's bat is preferable to Belt's. "Yeah, I think that's fair to say. Wouldn't you?"
— Andrew Baggarly (@CSNBaggs) July 17, 2012

No, Bruce, I wouldn't.  I mean, if you want Posey to play 1B, someone's gotta catch, I get that much, but whatever.


You starting to think that the Giants are losing interest in Belt? Sure he's mired in a little slump at the moment, but that's what MLB seasons are; peaks and valleys, highs and lows, and so on.  He's 24, after all.


Okay, I think I've done a good enough job showing that Belt is, at worst, a reasonable option for an MLB lineup, and coming from a guy who can read a stat sheet, I can say that he should be playing over Gregor Blanco or Angel Pagan, and that Hector Sanchez shouldn't be getting AB's at Belt's expense either.  We're beyond that.  But shit, is it possible that Brian Sabean and Bruce Bochy just plain don't like Brandon Belt, whether it be as a person or as a player?  Bochy won't play him (as much as he should), and Sabean took forever to call him up.  Maybe he's expendable?


You wanna know what's even more delicious?  The Giants like Brandon Crawford at SS, despite his bat (.237/.287/.327), so they probably won't be acquiring a shortstop (who knows though?), but their next worst offensive production has come from 2B.  Ryan Theriot has given them .274/.315/.318, and his rest-of-season projections don't really vary too far from that, nor is his fielding anything special.


Hey, we have a 2B! Brian Sabean has said that he won't make a significant move for a rental player, but if Belt is losing AB's for Blanco and Sanchez, then that might not qualify as a "major" trade, at least not to them.  You want Kelly Johnson?  Fucking take him.  Too rentally?  Have something else.  Fuck knows you want to get Barry Zito out of the rotation sooner or later, have a pitching prospect.  Are you bluffing about the shortstop thing?  A lot of people (Jon Heyman, for example) are reporting that the Jays would be willing to move Yunel Escobar, a shortstop with 3 years of control left (options) at an affordable price.


I'm not going to begin to pretend that I can give reasonable predictions of who should and shouldn't be included in a deal that might not even have a chance of happening, but I'd certainly put down a lot of money suggesting that Yunel has more trade value than Johnson, and that if the Jays are even in to moving Escobar, which is something that we can't really confirm, remember, due to AA's don't-say-a-word-and-don't-believe-it-if-I-don't-say-it policy, Escobar would have to be a decent start to the discussions.  If Escobar isn't available, it would have to be a bit more than Johnson, I feel.  Whaddya want?  Prospects?  A reliever? We've got it.  Want Adam Lind?


And ultimately, if the question is "Alex Anthopoulos vs. Brian Sabean: Who ya got?", well... gimme Anthopoulos.


[This whole plan actually just hit a snag; Hector Sanchez was placed on the 15-day DL today.  Fuck.  We'll work around it.]

Here Gose Nothing

All right kid.  By virtue of being fast, you get to bat in arguably the most important slot in the order, usurping the other fast guy, Rajai Davis as the leadoff man.  You got your first MLB hit (hit?) out of the way last night, so no need for the nerves today!

Not exactly going out on a limb here, but I'm going to predict that this isn't exactly going to go swimmingly.  I mean, Gose has some pretty average offensive numbers in AAA, and the virtue of being laser-fast probably has plenty to do with that, as his contact-rates aren't exactly worth ejaculating about.  Whatever, season's over, do whatever the fuck you feel like.

As for last night, I thought Cecil looked pretty good.  He threw quite a few pitches early on, which isn't all that rare, considering the Yankees' style, but he settled in quite nicely after the Jones HR.  I'll give him a Zaunhead, though Edwin was plenty worth it as well.

Other than that, sit back and enjoy, I suppose.  Sweet looking lineup.

Stuff
Tao of Stieb is mad at how they're treating Travis Snider.  I think I have some crazy in my ears.

Sean O'Sullivan went 8 innings, allowing just 4 hits last night in AAA Las Vegas.  !!!!

The Ryan Dempster sweeps may be coming to an end sooner or later, which means that the Matt Garza sweeps will begin soon.

Lineups
Jays
Gose RF
Lawrie 3B
Rasmus CF
Edwin 1B
Lind DH
JPA C
Johnson 2B
Davis LF
Vizquel SS

Romero P

Yankees (Not released yet, and I'm leaving, so I'll guess)
Jeter SS
Granderson CF
Arod DH
Cano 2B
Teixeira 1B
Swisher RF
Jones LF
Nix 3B
Martin C

Sky Confirmed Falling, Go(o)se Confirmed Loose*

*Before you go ahead and call me a copycat plagiarist scumbag, I know DJF used the "totally loose" thing a few years ago, when the Jays acquired Gose from Houston or Philadelphia or whoever the fuck, but I came up with it and tweeted it to Stoeten (I think), so it's still mine.  Look it up if you must.

Well this season is over.  Trade everyone.  The Jays will be without Jose Bautista for at least two weeks, as our savior and personal Jesus has been placed on the 15-day DL with a wrist situation.  The Jays have called up Travis Snider to take Bautista's place.

What's that?  Anthony Gose?  Not Travis Snider?  Oh, well.  That's a headscratcher now, isn't it?  Well, yes, but also...

Now, I'm not going to go ahead and say that Gose is good enough offensively in AAA to hack it in the majors (.292/.375/.432 in AAA, which sounds good until we remember that offensive numbers are really amplified in Las Vegas), especially as a 21 year-old (22 in about 2 weeks).  I'm pretty sure he's one of the younger guys in that league, though I don't really have anything that can back that up.

We can compare that with 24 year-old Travis Snider, who has a .322/.415/.548 line.  Obviously, as we've heard over and over, they want Snider to stay up when he comes up, and if Rajai Davis is still patrolling LF until the trade deadline (he's getting traded at the deadline, right?), then well I guess this is the way she goes.

I don't really understand why it has to be 21-year old "definitely coming back down" Anthony Gose instead of 24-year old "if he's not ready now then he might never be" Travis Snider.

That's not to say it has to be Snider, because he hasn't played overly well recently, I just don't know if Gose is the right play here.  Allow me to be quietly skeptical this one time.  I know the cool kids are rushing their 19 and 20-year old phenoms to the majors, so maybe this is just keeping up with the Joneses.  I dunno, Thames, Gomes, even Moises Sierra?  Basically what I'm saying in a long-winded form is that Gose didn't strike me as #1 on the depth chart.

I do suppose there's a reason why AA's the GM, and I'm just some dude sitting on the couch though.  I dunno, I guess the season's pretty well finished and that we shouldn't shit ourselves about this anyway.  Gose was probably going to be a September callup anyway, so heh.

Stuff
The Marlins will listen on anybody if they happen to sell, which, without Giancarlo Stanton, is bound to happen.  Josh Johnson is under contract for $13.75MM next year everybody.

The Jays are interested in Justin Upton.  Shocking!

The Jays transferred Brandon Morrow to the 60-day DL to make room for Anthony Gose on the 40-man.

New York, New York.

It would have been cool if Farrell rearranged the rotation to let our best pitcher face the toughest team (I'm talking about CharlieV and New York here), but it's not really a big deal.  Charlie, despite walking 5 guys over 6 innings, went ahead and threw a handful of shutout innings, earning himself some Zaunhead privileges.

The obvious problem herein is that we're going to have good ole groundball-or-homerun Alvarez is going to pitch in the bandbox park against a pretty high-powered offense.  Could be better, I suppose.  I can't imagine this game is going to be pretty.

Stuff
I was thinking about writing something almost exactly along these lines, but Stoeten is ready for some trades.  Personally, I'm hoping for a pretty quiet deadline out of AA, save for a pitcher or two, which isn't exactly easy to find. I'm more worried about keeping the prospects around and building it up that way, and Stoeten pretty blatantly mentions exactly that, wanting to hang on to what I'm just going to go ahead and call the top tier of prospects in the system (Gose, Marisnick, TdA, Sanchez, Syndergaard, Norris, etc., basically the ones we've heard of).

Jon Morosi, via MLBTR, suggests that the Jays are interested in Francisco Liriano.  Liriano hasn't been overly good so far this year, and that's before we even consider that he's playing in the AL Central, where nobody seems to feel like winning, and gets to pitch a bunch of games in the offensive wasteland of Target Field.  He'll make about $2.75MM, give or take, over the rest of the year, and is still under team control for next season.  I meh.  The Jays are obviously still in on Matt Garza, which seems like a much better idea.


MLB Daily Dish has a list of upcoming Jays' free agents and their potential pricetags and stuff.


The Red Sox have DFA'ed Brent Lillibridge to make room for Carl Crawford.  This isn't something that would typically be big news, except Lillibridge, along with Zach Stewart, was acquired for Kevin Youkilis like 3 weeks ago or something.  I really hope that White Sox claim him.


Finally, over two outings, totalling 1.1IP, Marcus Stroman has gotten shelled in the high-A league for the Jays.  Stroman was just drafted, and has been rumored to be advanced enough that he could potentially see time in the Jays bullpen this season.  Now he's got a WHIP over 5.  I mean, it's not the end of the world or anything, but I wouldn't hold your breath on seeing him this year.


Lineups
Jays
Lawrie 3B
Rasmus CF
Bautista RF
Edwin 1B
Lind DH
Escobar SS
Johnson 2B
Davis LF
JPA C


Alvarez P


Yankees
Jeter SS
Granderson CF
ARod SS
Cano 2B
Teixeira 1B
Swisher RF
Ibanez LF
Chavez DH
Martin C


Hughes P

Extend This Man

Pretty good, huh?  I'm not sure I've ever seen a ball go to where that second one went, because holy fuck.  ESPN hittracker isn't updated yet, but I'd be surprised if that wasn't the longest HR of the day.  I kind of waxed Edwin's knob a bit the other day, so I suppose there's no reason to do that again.  I'll just give him a Zaunhead and we can move along.  I'll give Ricky Romero one for Friday's game too.

The Jays have optioned Jesse Chavez back to AAA, and have recalled Chad Beck.  Finally.  Chavez fucking blows.

The Padres stole home last night to tie the game, if you missed that.

Anyway, I'm going to the beach.  Breaking Bad restarts tonight, by the way.  If you don't watch that show then fuck you really hard.

Aaaand We're Back

Stuff
Sergio Santos threw again today, but there's still no timetable.

Brandon Morrow threw a nice bullpen today.  It says in that link that it's too early to speculate, but I don't  imagine he'll be back until at least the start August.  Wilner said in a tweet that Morrow will probably need 5 rehab starts in the minors to stretch out.

Jon Morosi of FOX says that the Jays are more interested in upgrades for the rotation than for the bullpen, but both are on the docket.

The Jays have selected the contract of Aaron Loup from AA New Hampshire, and they placed Luis Perez on the 15-day DL.  Loup is a few weeks younger than I am, and was chosen in the 9th round in 2009.  He has a 2.78 ERA over 45 innings in New Hampshire so far this year, striking out almost a batter an inning.

Good enough.

Lineups
Blue Jays
Lawrie 3B
Rasmus CF
Bautista RF
Edwin 1B
Lind DH
Escobar SS
Johnson 2B
Davis LF
Arencibia C

Romero P

Indians
Choo RF
Cabrera SS
Kipnis 2B
Hafner DH
Santana 1B
Brantley CF
Marson C
Damon LF
Hannahan 3B

Masterson P

Jays Extend Edwin, Baseball Gets Ever Closer

Yeah.  Big news.  I bet he did that arm flex thing when he found out that it was official.  The deal will guarantee him $29MM over the next 3+ years; $8MM in 2013, $9MM in '14, $10MM in '15, and the Jays hold a club option for 2016, worth $10MM with a $2MM buyout.

This is pretty exciting to me, I dunno about you guys.  Edwin has been pretty fucking fantastic over the last calendar year, ranking 8th in HR's over that span (tied with a few others), and has some pretty comparable numbers with a lot of the game's elite.  Some of the highlights of that link, using the arbitrary endpoint of 365 days:

• A 150 wRC+ (basically, he's created 50% more runs than the average offensive contributor), good for 8th best in MLB, and 3 points better than Jose Bautista.
• 8th best wOBA, tied with Carlos Beltran, ahead of guys like Bautista, David Wright and Andrew Mccutchen.
• 4.4 fWAR, good for 27th best in baseball (among position players).
• A .380 OBP, good for 12th in baseball, assuming I counted correctly.
• A .535 SLG, 13th best in baseball.

Yep, 3y/$29MM will do just fine.

I'd like to point you to this, by the way:

Edwin is probably in a position to command a 4-year deal at the end of the season, by virtue of being a 29-year old free agent-to-be enjoying a career year.  He has some suspect defensive abilities (though he's been alright at 1B this year), which should limit his market to AL teams looking for a DH or 1B/DH combo, so maybe he won't do any better than the 3y/$27MM than Josh Willingham got this past offseason from Minnesota (though Willingham is 33).

Not bad.


Stuff
I have my trade deadline previews up at Nowhere Plans.  These were written before the Edwin signing, so he'd still be listed as a trade candidate, but you get the idea.  Here's the American League, and here's the National League.


Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic had some juicy stuff about the Justin Upton rumors, notably that the Jays are definitely a fit, and could include a third team if necessary.  It could happen, folks.


I don't remember if I mentioned this or not, since days are kind of starting to blend together, but Luis Perez is out for the year with elbow fuckups or something.  He's going to get a second opinion, but he'll probably have Tommy John.


Ever wonder what would happen if you hit a baseball pitched at 90% of the speed of light?  Me neither.  Way too fucking precise.  Anyway, here's the cliff notes, in video form.

Fuck Writing

And fuck the all-star break while we're at it.  Did you know that I have a girlfriend?  I had forgotten until recently, when my TV choices became The HR Derby or nothing.  I've actually been hanging out with her over the last few days since the last Jays game, and it turns out that she's right on.  I'll probably miss her come Friday, when baseball happens again.

Speaking of baseball, the carnival is in town, and a smashed a fucking beer bottle with a baseball and won a little stuffed shark.  Threw a cutter.  Also lost $3 on that thing where they spin a thing and throw a ball in to it and you bet what color it lands on.

Call Me Crazy, But...

... I thought ole Tricky Ricky pitched pretty well yesterday, in spite of the spotty defense and  lack of run support.  And that's about it.  Zaunhead for Ricky, and let's move on to the next one, mostly because it's either him, or Adam Lind, and we don't like him absolutely nobody.

The Jays now find themselves at 42-43, and are now 3.5 games back of that silly second wild card spot, and, more importantly, have five teams between them and that second spot, three of which are in their own division.  It doesn't look good.

That's okay though, because if we can remember back to the weeks leading up to this season, we should have known to have tempered expectations about this year.  After all, we began this season with Drew Hutchison, Henderson Alvarez, and some other random guy in the rotation.  This was another transition season, with an outside shot of everything going right, right? Right.

Anyway, Brett Cecil today.  That typically means that the Jays are going to score some runs (in his 4 starts, he's gotten 6 runs of support twice, and 7 runs of support twice), though I guess Ricky Romero has been getting like 9 runs of support on average this year, and got dick-all yesterday, and of course, the pitcher has nothing to do with the amount of runs his own team scores.  Dylan Axelrod goes for the White Sox, and by all accounts, he's kind of a junkballer, not unlike Cecil, I guess.  I will go ahead and predict that the Jays don't get shut out again today.


Stuff
If you missed it, the Jays will shuffle their rotation up a bit after the allstar break.  John Farrell wants to set lefties up against Cleveland, so it's going to be Romero/Laffey/Villanueva/Alvarez/Cecil.  This also conveniently gives Alvarez a few extra days of rest in an attempt to keep his innings down in his first full season.  This, of course, could all get switched around again if a trade goes down between now and the end of the all-star break.


Brett Lawrie is going to get a day off.  He was pulled yesterday with tightness in his back, though they said it was just a precaution.  Either way, Omar Vizquel will take his place in the lineup today, and Lawrie will get 5 days off with the all-star festivities.


Zack Greinke got tossed from last night's start after just 3 pitches.  This one's a headscratcher.


Micah Owings is going to try and come back as a position player, once he gets off the disabled list.  He's a better hitter than pitcher anyway.


Finally, a moment of silence please, for Giancarlo Stanton, who will miss 4-6 weeks (and the homerun derby) with a knee surgery.  That fucking blows.  Andrew Mccutchen will replace him in the derby, Bryce Harper will replace him in the all-star game.  Matt Kemp, as of now, still hopes to participate in the derby, though nothing is official as of yet, as far as I can tell.


Lineups
Jays
Davis LF
Rasmus CF
Bautista RF
Edwin 1B
Lind DH
Escobar SS
Johnson 2B
Vizquel 3B
Mathis C


Cecil P


Whites
De Aza CF
Youkilis 3B
Dunn 1B
Konerko DH
Rios RF
Ramirez SS
Viciedo LF
Flowers C
Beckham 2B


Axelrod P

Call Me Crazy, But...

... I thought ole Laffey Taffey pitched pretty well yesterday, in spite of the spotty defense and lack of run support.  And that's about it.  Zaunhead for Laffey, and let's move on to the next one, mostly because it's either him, or Adam Lind, and we don't like him.

Ricky Romero throws today, and I suppose we all know what that means at this stage (typically when I have this shitty attitude I end up really fucking wrong so let's go).  In return, the White Sox will throw former potential future Blue Jay Gavin Floyd.  Floyd has not been very good this year, with an ERA and FIP approaching 5.

Stuff
David Pauley has rejected his optional assignment after being DFA'ed, and is now a free agent.  Not a big deal.

The O's have contacted the Astros about Wandy Rodriguez, according to MLBTR.  The Jays have also been looking towards Wandy (and Matt Garza) since they have multiple years of control.

Apparently Chris Woodward is still playing in Las Vegas, and pitched a scoreless inning in the first game of yesterday's doubleheader.

I dunno, that's enough.  Today's game starts at a weird time.

Lineups
Jays
Lawrie 3B
Rasmus CF
Bautista RF
Edwin 1B
Lind DH
Escobar SS
Davis LF
Vizquel 2B
Arencibia C

Romero P

White Sox
De Aza CF
Youkilis 3B
Dunn DH
Konerko 1B
Rios RF
Pierzynski C
Viciedo LF
Ramirez SS
Hudson 2B

Floyd P

Won't Even Bother

Yeah.  Glad I wasn't around to watch this one, but I'm not even going to bother shitting on Coco or getting sad at defense or whatever else I'd typically do in this scenario.  It's all been done before, and having not watched the game, I'm not really that upset about it.

I hear JPA hit a coupla taters, so he can have a Zaunhead, and we'll just move right along to the next one how 'bout?

We're going to see Jake Peavy and Aaron Laffey tonight.  Laffey, the Jays 9th starter, has been halfway decent since getting tossed in to the role; in 21 innings in the bigs this year, he's got an ERA of 2.14, despite his FIP over 4.  So yeah, fuck you luck.  He's actually got a .164 babip going on here so far.  I'm going to stop looking at his advanced numbers now so I don't begin to cry.

Peavy has been pretty fantastic so far this year, in a little comeback year.  He's had some injury issues over the last few seasons, and has been more or less useless in Chicago during his tenure.  He pitched against the Jays earlier this year, going 6, allowing 5 hits and 3 runs, walking 5 and striking out 4.

Stuff
This is fucking amazing.  Punchouts for all 72 MLB umps, together in one place.


The Jays signed three more draft picks today


The Orioles are looking at Zack Greinke.  I would be shocked if they made a deal, since they refuse to deal Manny Machado or Dylan Bundy, and I just don't see how they can have the prospects to make a deal if those two are both untouchable.

Josh Beckett is getting his shit shoved in, and the Red Sox/Yanks play a doubleheader tomorrow, so they're probably going to leave him in for a while.  Could get nasty.  That game started an hour before the Jays game, and I doubt it will be over before the Jays are finished, so you might be able to check that one out.

The Jays have officially released Jamie Moyer.  Thank fuck.

Lineups
Jays
Lawrie 3B
Rasmus CF
Bautista RF
Edwin 1B
Lind DH (sigh)
Escobar SS
Davis LF
Johnson 2B
JPA C

Laffey P

White Sox
De Aza CF
Youkilis 3B
Dunn DH
Konerko 1B
Rios RF
Pierzynski C
Viciedo LF
Ramirez SS
Beckham 2B

Peavy P

Staff Ace Charlie

Look at that happy little fucker.  You wonder what the hell he was doing as the long man in the bullpen this whole time, huh?  Having said that, he started for a little while last year and ended up fizzling out like an old Lada about halfway through the year.  Apparently all that weight that he lost over the offseason was part of his conscious decision to prepare for this season as if he were starting, and adapt to the shape of a reliever, as opposed to the other way around like last year.

So yeah, he's been a little breath of fresh air during the harsh times that we've had since Brandon Morrow went down, and he can have a Zaunhead for it.  While we're at it, Casey Janssen and Darren Oliver (and any relief pitcher that doesn't come in for mopup duty, really) so rarely get chances to be the Zaunhead recipient, despite the amount of shutdown innings that they've thrown over the last little while, so we're going to be nice and give them a Zaunhead each, just for kicks.  You know, to get them on the board.

"Ricky" Henderson Alvarez will go tonight for the Jays in the finale against the Royals, who counter with Luke Hochevar.  A nice outing would go a long way towards my not hating him.

Stuff
The Jays optioned Scott Richmond to AAA, and have recalled pitcher Sam Dyson from AA New Hampshire.  I don't know shit about Dyson, but Mike Cormack's twitter says that Farrell claims that Dyson may have the best 'stuff' in the organization, and was a first round talent before some injuries struck.

John Farrell was on the FAN590 this morning, discussing some stuff like trades and Sergio Santos.  I haven't listened to this yet, but I'm hoping MLBTR do a handy-dandy bullet-point offering of the interview.  I might listen to it tonight or tomorrow, provided I have time.

[Just kind of listening through at the moment, and Farrell says he wants another starter, or two if the market provides it.  Hahaha.  Join the club.  Seriously, I'm working on a piece that previews the trade deadline, and pretty much every team is going to be looking in on adding starters, so not only will prices be sky-high, but fuck giving up a pile of prospects twice.]

Jamie Moyer hasn't been called up yet, and the Jays haven't made a decision about what to do with him.  They might suggest that he makes a third start at AAA, if he's up for it, according to Mike Cormack.  Moyer, of course, has a clause or handshake agreement or whatever, that suggests that he would make two starts, and then either be called up, or granted a release if Moyer so desired.  Moyer has had one good start, and one really bad one in AAA.

Sportsnet's Barry Davis says that Dustin McGowan is headed to see a specialist about his shoulder pain.  He also tells us that Brandon Morrow is ahead of schedule, and that Sergio Santos is back to throwing with some intensity.

Mendoza

Hey, so this blog sucks lately, huh?  The weather has been fucking fantastic lately, so I've been spending most of my time at the beach, and thus, not really spending a whole lot of time writing or watching baseball.  Thems the breaks I guess, huh?  I'll give Edwin a Zaunhead, because suck it Adam Lind.

And it gets better; CharlieV tonight!  He'll go against Luis Mendoza of "McBain" fame, hence the video above.  That's a Simpsons reference, if you're retarded.

Stuff

Looks like Adam Lind is back and will get every opportunity to prove otherwise!  He'll bat 5th tonight, with Kelly Johnson zipping on down to 8th.

The Jays have made another signing or two in the last couple of days, including lefty Jose Castillo.  I can't imagine they have any of their international spending budget left, but who knows?

Buster Olney of ESPN (insider) is telling us that the Jays came 3rd in the Yu Darvish bidding, behind the Rangers and Cubs.  Cheap fucks!  But really, Olney doesn't cite his source, and Alex Anthopoulos sure as shit didn't release anything about that, so this sounds like fucking horseshit.  Here, I can do this too:  A major source close to everybody tells me that the Blue Jays are checking in on Cole Hamels, but are a bit gunshy of the asking price.  See, it's not fucking hard.

Ken Rosenthal thinks the Jays should deal Colby Rasmus while his value is high.  That also sounds fucking asinine, since he's 25 and a centerfielder who has 16 HR's and has already been good.  I dunno, maybe Rosey is just a Rasmus-hater.

Fuck This.

I don't have to take this, I'm going to the beach.

Stuff
The Nowhere Plans power rankings are up for the week.  Greg made a bunch of typos or copy-and-pasting errors or something, so make sure you leave a bunch of comments and make fun of him.  I can't do that myself, because I have some modicum of responsibility to not be a cock or something.

I think I'm going to be writing a preview of the trade deadline over there as well, but won't be posting it for another week or so.  Maybe during the all-star break.  I'm not entirely sure how I'm going to format it, but I've got it halfway written or so.

If you missed it, David Pauley was DFA'ed last night.  Andrew Carpenter was called up to take his place, and the Jays outrighted Alan Farina off the 40-man roster.  The way Pauley has pitched, I'd be kind of surprised if he got claimed, but who knows?  If he goes unclaimed, the Jays will have 10 days to release him, trade him, or send him to the minors via waivers.

Brandon Morrow is "making strides" in his rehab, but there is still no timetable for his return.  Oblique strains are a fucking bitch.  He's throwing lightly, but I doubt he'll be around for another month at least.  That same link tells us that there is no timetable yet for the returns of Drew Hutchison or Sergio Santos.

Zaunhead for Jose for yesterday.  He's announced that he'll be participating in the homerun derby, by the way.  But that's what fucked him up for the second half last year!  Ruined his swing!  WTF?!?

Dearest Coco:

You're poison and you ruined Canada Day. Get the fuck off my team.

Stuff
The Jays have signed two international free agents.  Today, of course, is July 2, which means that the international free agency season has begun, and that those pesky international budgets are in play now too.  Anyway, the first signing was Franklin Barreto, a SS/CF (more on that in a second), who was the top-ranked international prospect according to Baseball America.  Terms haven't been announced, but it's probably in the $2MM range.  He apparently won't stick at SS.

The Jays also signed Luis Castro, a 16 year old Venezuelan shortstop.  Terms weren't disclosed for this one either, but the two signings can't combine for more than $2.9MM, unless the Jays are content with a penalty, as referenced by Baseball America:

International signings will have a similar pool, with similar penalties. Going over by up to 5 percent kicks in the 75 percent tax; 5-10 percent includes the same tax and a loss of the right to sign more than one player for a bonus of more than $500,000. Go over by 10-15 percent and a team incurs the 100 percent tax and can't sign any player for more than $500,000. Going over by more than 15 percent draws the 100 percent tax and prohibition to sign any player for more than $250,000.

The Jays have signed draft pick Chase DeJong for $860K (~$200K over slot), which means that they can offer Marcus Stroman up to $2.13MM without facing anything more than a tax penalty.

So yeah, about that whole SS/CF thing.  In the minor leagues (or in this case, in Venezuelan amateur leagues), you're going to put your best athletes at CF and SS since those are the hardest positions to play.  Did you notice how practically everybody that got drafted this year was either a SP, a SS or a CF?  There was obviously the odd guy out there who was a lot bigger and will be listed as a 1B/3B, or in the Jays' case, Marcus Stroman, who will probably be a reliever going forward, but for the most part, if you're getting drafted or signed as an international, you're going to be among the better athletes on the team and thus play a more premium position.

It's no surprise that guys get moved from SS once they get to the minors; remember when Miguel Cabrera made his debut with the Marlins?  He was rail-thin and 20 years old.  He was also drafted as a SS.  Mike Morse of the Nats was a SS, and he is now 6'5'', 250.  We have to remember that these kids are 16 years old, and they are going to fill out quite a bit in the 5-7 years before (if?) they even make it to the bigs at all.    Not coincidentally, those positions are the scarcest when it comes to offensive production, and teams will stick guys there to try and eke more offense out of their lineups. So yeah, that's why you get such a disproportionate amount of SS's and CF's signing or getting drafted.