Saturday, 2 June 2012

Blue Jays Draft Review, Part 3

2003: 32.7 WAR, 50 players
Aaron Hill (1-13) has been worth 17.0 WAR over his career, 15.3 of which came with the Blue Jays, over parts of 7 seasons.  He missed over half of 2008 with concussion symptoms, but sandwiched that season with 3.6, 4.8, and 5.6 WAR seasons, but has fallen off a cliff since then.  He was once looked at as an elite defender, but over the last 3 seasons, he has provided surprisingly little in terms of defensive value, to go along with his crusty on base and slugging skills.  He was traded last August for Kelly Johnson.

Shaun Marcum (3-80): gave the Jays 9.1 WAR over parts of 5 seasons (plus a missed year due to Tommy John surgery) before being traded to Milwaukee for Brett Lawrie.  He was worth 3.8 WAR in his final season as a Jay, fresh off of TJ, posting career bests in K/9, BB/9, and innings pitched.  He'll be a free agent after this season, and if the Brewers don't turn things around, could be a trade candidate.  If the Jays are still in the hunt, they could look to re-acquire him.

Tom Mastny (11-320): would be a pretty insignificant draft pick if it weren't for the fact that he was flipped for John McDonald (who, along with Hill, got Kelly Johnson).  He's been worth -0.8 WAR in his big league career, and has been out of the bigs since the end of the 2010 season, as far as I can tell.  McDonald was a fan favorite of Jays fans, and gave the Jays more than 4WAR as a utility guy over parts of 7 seasons.

Ryan Roberts (18-530): A bit of a late bloomer, Roberts has been worth 4.0 WAR for his career, having 2 2.2 WAR seasons with the D-Backs over the last three years.  He signed as a free agent with Arizona before the '09 season, and has a bit of a breakout last year, hitting 19 HR's.  He's struggled so far this year, however, and probably won't survive the season as a starter.

As for the rest of the Jays picks that year, I haven't heard of any of them, and only a couple of them made it to the bigs for a cup of coffee.

Hill actually ranks third among '03 first rounders in WAR, behind only Nick Markakis and John Danks, so Hill is a pretty decent pick there, though Adam Jones ranks 5th and will probably be the top dog from that draft when everything is said and done.  Andre Ethier went in the 2nd round, and Jonathan Papelbon and Michael Bourn both went in the 4th.

2002: 50 players, -0.4 WAR
Russ Adams (1-14): This one kind of sticks in the craw of Jays fans.  Adams had a reasonable rookie season, .256/.325/.383 as a 24 year old, but couldn't ever put it together and build upon that.  That offensive line, for a shortstop, is probably just shy of average, but his defense never really appeared to be anything special.  He was worth -1.2WAR over half a season in 2005, and never saw regular playing time ever again.  He retired in May 2011.

Dave Bush (2-55) is the only Jays' draft pick from 2002 to put up positive WAR for his career, with 2.5.  Bush gave the Jays 2 seasons and 2.5 WAR, before being shipped (with others) to Milwaukee for Lyle Overbay.  Bush gave the Brewers 1.9 WAR in 2006, and another 1.6 in 2008 before becoming terrible.  He's currently in the Phillies minor league system.

A few other guys from this draft had brief stints in the majors, but nothing special.  Bryan Bullington, one of the biggest 1st overall busts of all time, went in this draft to Pittsburgh.  The Jays could have had Cole Hamels, Matt Cain, or Denard Span instead of Adams.  Joey Votto, Brian McCann, and Jon Lester all went in the 2nd round of this draft as well.  Curtis Granderson went in the third.

2001: 50 players, 5.3 WAR.
Gabe Gross (1-15): Worth 3.8 WAR over his career, most of which coming with Milwaukee in 2006, after being traded with Dave Bush for Lyle Overbay.  He was released by the Mariners during spring training in 2011, and is a free agent, as far as I can tell.  Either way, he was worth -0.3 WAR in Toronto, and Overbay fetched 10.9 WAR over 5 seasons for the Jays.  I think we won that one.  The Jays could have had David Wright, JJ Hardy, or Dan Haren instead of Gross.  Gross.

Brandon League (2-59): Worth 1.6 WAR for his career, including 1.2 for the Jays over parts of 6 seasons.  Who cares though?  He was traded for Brandon Morrow before the 2010 season.  League became the closer in Seattle, Morrow became the best starter in Toronto.  Even trade.

And that's about it.  A few selections saw some major league time at one point or another; Tyrell Godwin (3-91), Mike Rouse (5-151), Jeff Fiorentino, Dave Gassner, and Sean Barker.  Ontario's David Corrente played baseball for Canada in the 2008 Olympics, as well as being drafted in the 14th round by the Jays.

2000: 52 players, 0.7 WAR
Dustin McGowan (1s-33): Supplemental pick for the loss of Graeme Lloyd.  He's been worth 0.7 WAR over 375 innings and countless injuries.  He was worth 2.1 WAR in 2007, his only full-ish season, and showed a lot of potential during that year.  Then his arm fell off.  Could have had Kelly Johnson, Grady Sizemore, or Mike Morse.

Vinne Chulk (12-358): Gave the Jays 0.4 WAR over parts of 4 seasons out of the bullpen, before getting traded with Shea Hillenbrand for Jeremy Accardo.  He's somehow still in the league, despite a career 0.8 WAR over 285 innings (parts of 8 seasons).

That's about it, again.  Miguel Negron was the 1st pick for the Jays, and is still toiling around in the minors, currently playing A-ball for the White Sox at the age of 28.  Hang it up, dude.

So yeah, a pretty gruesome job of drafting and developping, all things considered.

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