Monday, 4 June 2012

Draft Live Blog!

It's time.  It starts nowish, though I'm sure there will be some housekeeping and commercials to take care of.  I think I read somewhere that the first pick will be at 9 minutes after the hour.  I'll write what I know, and plagiarize what I don't.  Until I get bored, anyway.  Gogogogogo!

While we wait, Kevin Goldstein, typically of Baseball Prospectus, has a piece for ESPN (insider) about some prospects that are pretty much ready for the bigs in his "Top 12 for '12" fantasy series. Travis d'Arnaud finds himself at the top of the list, and Anthony Gose ranks 9th.  It's a paywall thing, so I won't just copy and paste everything, but Goldstein calls d'Arnaud arguably the hottest prospect in the game right now, and at catcher to boot.  As for Gose, he went from unranked in the last update to 9th in this one, powered by his outrageous streak of hitting over the last few weeks.

7:09 PM: Bud is at the podium!  Thanks for coming folks!  CC Sabathia is in the building!  Other stuff that I don't care about!  Get to the money!

Astros on the clock.

7:19 PM: Holy shit.  Houston took Carlos Correa (SS, Puerto Rico).  My face is melted.  Really toolsy, and got a lot of comparisons to A-Rod.  He, much like A-Rod (or Tulo) is pretty big for a SS, and might need to move somewhere down the line, but I guess the bat will play just fine at 3B, for example.  He's only 17, so he's probably not done growing, which could be a problem.

7:27 PM: The Twins take Byron Buxton.  I think the Twins were settled with the idea of taking whoever was left between Buxton and Appel, so I doubt they were expecting to have a choice between the two.  I personally prefer Buxton, if for nothing else than the fact that pitchers break all the time.  Buxton is a 5-tool dude, getting Upton comps.

7:33 PM:
Mark Appel might have some signability concerns, and could fall quite a way.  The 4th pick has a reccomended slot of $4.2MM, and if that's not enough then I don't know what the fuck.  Maybe just take him anyway and get a pick in a better draft class next year?  Anyway, Zunino has a .392/.456/.770 line this season, playing at the University of Florida.

7:40 PM: O's take Kevin Gausman.  KC up.  He went last year in the 6th round and didn't sign.  Gausman looks like a giraffe and is crushing at LSU this year, and John Hart calls him a front-mid rotation guy.

7:43 PM: Whoa.  KC just went off the board a little bit with Kyle Zimmer.  I really figured that they'd go with Max Fried or Mark Appel.  6'4'', 240lbs, and he just converted from an infielder to a pitcher a few years ago.  Unsurprisingly, he's whooping at the college level.  Kind of ugly.

7:48 PM: Cubs take Almora, and this:

By the way, if you're not following Kevin, fuck off.   Almora is a highschool outfielder who will apparently cover a ton of ground out there.  He's only 18, and apparently has a batting cage and makeshift gym in his backyard.

7:53 PM: Padres will take Fried here.  Don't see any other possibilities.

7:55 PM: Yep.  Best lefty in the draft.  94MPH fastball, really good curve. 6'3'', and should fill out.

8:00 PM: Pittsburgh goes with Appel.  Doubt he signs.

Fascinating, and the draft budget will be ruled as a terribly exploitable system if something like this actually happens at some point (obviously, with some other "unsignable" guy).  $2.9MM slot for this selection, by the way.

8:08 PM: Marlins take Andrew Heaney. We're going all NHL with this one, as Heavey is in the building and is putting a jersey and hat on, and having a huggy moment with Bud.  He's a tall lefty, and shouldn't take too long before seeing some big league time, assuming he signs.

8:15 PM: Rockies take David Dahl.  I don't know dick about this guy.  Harold Reynolds just pretty much called him a fast honkey.

8:18 PM: A's will probably take Courtney Hawkins.

8:20 PM: Or not.  Addison Russell, high school SS.  Lost 20 pounds this year, but he's still awfully big for a shortstop.

8:22 PM: Cecchini is going to go here to the Mets, according to John Manuel.  College shortstop.

8:24 PM: Yep.  Hot girlfriend, or possibly sister.

8:29 PM: 

I'm bullish.  I just don't think Giolito will want to sign after missing a year with an injury.  Callis also saying that the White Sox will take Courtney Hawkins.

8:34 PM: I'm guessing there will be a clause in Hawkins' contract that specifically bars him from doing that standing backflip.

8:40 PM: Shaffer or Hawkins here for Cincy, I feel.

8:43 PM:  Who?  I know nothing about Nick Travieso.

8:44 PM: Scared to make another prediction, but Stratton goes here to Cleveland.

8:50 PM: Crying out loud. This one is a stretch, according to most mocks I've read.  I haven't really done much research beyond the top 35 or 40, so I don't really know much about this guy.  There are definitely some more hyped up bats out there, as opposed to Naquin.  Piscotty, Shaffer and Marrero, to name a few. Washington will probably grab one of those three.

8:55PM: Giolito goes to Washington.  Some sad faces in Toronto, I would say.  I doubt he signs though.   My best guess is Wacha to Toronto.

9:00 PM: Kevin Goldstein says that Giolito will sign. Jays take DiJai Davis.  DJ though.  Fast as fuck, no college commitment.  Sounds just like a Gose or Marisnick kind of guy.  Keith Law says that he's the fastest guy in the draft.

9:05 PM: A few links to some Davis scouting reports.  One, two, three, four.  That last one's a video, btw.  Lots of sources saying that he's going to be a very easy sign ($2MM slot), which could get the Jays some extra cash in their budget to go over slot for someone later.

9:12 PM: Pee and snack break.  Corey Seager to the Dodgers.  Brother of Kyle Seager of the Seattle Mariners, but is apparently a better raw athlete.  Wacha to the Cardinals. Pretty close to his ceiling already, by all accounts.  Giants will take a highschool arm.  Hensley and Smoral are the two I can think of off the top of my head.

9:20 PM: Or they'll go with Stratton.  Tall righty, nasty slider. My guess is that the Braves go with Deven Marrero. Joey Gallo is still there, so is Lance Mccullers.

9:22 PM: Lucas Sims. Two-way player, but will pitch.  He has weird mechanics, in my view.  Jays up.  Marcus Stroman.

9:33 PM: Nice.  This is probably some kind of result of the Davis pick.  A few scouts (Law, Callis) say that he could actually pitch in the bigs this year.  Prett amazing. A lot of people are scared to grab short guys (he's 5'9'') because apparently when you're short and throw hard, you're trying too hard and your arm will fall off.  Coupla scouting reports: one two three.

9:37 PM: We're starting to get to the point where I don't know much about a lot of the guys who are going.  The Jays won't pick again until #50, so I'll make a fairly conservative prediction and say that I'll be updating significantly less frequently for the rest of the night.  James Ramsey to the Cardinals.

9:44 PM: Deven Marrero to Boston.  Goldstein had Marrero going at 16.  I like the pick.  Richie Shaffer to Tampa. Raw power, Keith Law calls him the 2nd best college hitter.  21 years old, 6'3'', 205.

9:55 PM: Stryker Trahan to the DBacks.  I kind of wanted him to go to Toronto at 22, but I'll live.  Offense is good enough that he can move out from behind the plate if his defense doesn't hold up.  He's big, at 220lbs, so there's a very good chance he needs to move, but if he can hang at catcher, he'll be plenty valuable.  Brewers have back-to-back picks here (their own, and a comp pick from Detroit for Prince).  Selig just called it the 2000 draft, so you know he's shit-faced.  MIL took Clint Coulter.  He'll probably stay behind the plate, but again, the bat should play anywhere.

10:12 PM: Roache to Milwaukee, Brinson to Texas.  Roache is huge, and has big power, but people were scared off due to injury.  Could be huge value, but it's a risky shot.  Keith Law called is a "huge overdraft."  Brinson has nice power as well.  High school dude with very high upside.  Jason Parks calls him a "massive toolshed," which is a compliment and not Parks just being a big meanie.

10:20 PM: Yankees take Ty Hensley, high school pitcher who also happens to be a really good hitter. Keith Law worries about his ability to repeat the delivery and throw strikes consistently, but there's some high potential there.  Last pick of the round belongs to the Red Sox, before a quick break, and then the "lightning round."

10:25 PM: Brian Johnson.  ESPN doesn't appear to be crazy about him.  I'm pretty well done here.  Once the Jays pick their guys in the sandwich round, I'll write them up and probably give up for a while.

11:05: Matt Smoral.  6'7'' lefty, hits 95.  Might be a tough sign (though he might sign for nothing if he's damaged), but they should save money with their first two picks.  He got hurt, and probably would have gone mid-first if he hadn't been hurt.  He had some other injuries in the past (Keith Law suggests that those could be due to how quickly he grew), so this certainly isn't a super safe pick.  Scouting report one, two (at the bottom) three (videos)

11:20:  At 58, Mitch Nay, 3B that will probably end up in the outfield. Keith Law has him ranked 43rd. Has nice power, and improved contact after a change in his hitting approach.  At 60, Tyler Gonzalez, 6'2'' pitcher. Keith Law doesn't have Gonzalez in his top 100. Scouting report.  I'm tired.
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